2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z GFS spins up a system near the Windward Islands later in the week...

[srainhoutx]

I know wxman57 is watching the EC, but I'll be watching the Western Caribbean in about a week...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH FLORIDA...PORTIONS OF CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Andrew]

I don't see much development at least for the next week or two. The gfs has a weak vort tracking from the Atlantic in a week or so but it hasn't been consistent with forming it. Also unfortuantly for the short term the ridge seems to be pretty dominate. Hopefully we can get the ridge to weaken and a home brewed storm can develop. The good news is like many have said before, we are in July and activity doesn't usually pick up until late July or earl August. The cmc has been consistent at developing some type of storm but as always it is the cmc. We will need to watch the Caribbean next week as the tropical wave heads towards the U.S. but even that I am not really too sure about development.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is a bit faster with the W Atlantic wave and suggests a weak disturbance near the Yucatan @ hour 144...

[wxman57]

The next week or two may be the best time for development in July. Very weak MJO pulse arrives around the 15th. Lots of moisture and rising air across the Caribbean, Gulf and off the East U.S. Coast. Projections of a trof off the East U.S. Coast extending down to the southern Gulf by late next week with the Bermuda High located well east of normal. All of these are signals for possible development, regardless of what models are forecasting.

The first place to watch is off the East U.S. Coast by the middle of next week. Next would be the western Caribbean/Gulf late next week as the moisture from the wave along 52W reaches the region. GFS even indicates a significant increase in our rain chances by late next week.

[srainhoutx]

For grins, the 12Z FIM...

[unome]

240 hrs out there? I like this better; Friday wave in western gulf

[srainhoutx]

The wave that the models were sniffing out for development in the Western Caribbean has been added this morning...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at ImpactWeather have conducted a webinar update this morning. Here are the highlights...

ImpactWeather Webinar Highlights July 7, 2011

Climo: On schedule re: climo

96L: no development

Lower pressures expected in the Western Gulf and along the E Coast the next 10 days or so

MJO should reach the Western Basin next week and remain favorable for a couple of weeks

Primary concern for development would be off the E Coast and in the Western Basin (Caribbean & Gulf)

ENSO looks to remain Neutral throughout Tropical Season

2008 remains a good analog regarding this Tropical Season

SST’s are warmer than 2008 this year in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf

Euro Seasonals suggest lower pressures across the Caribbean during August, September and October

Highest risk would be Western Gulf and Florida and E Coast

Named storms increased to 15/9/4

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a TC developing near the Yucatan/BoC. This is the strong TW that will be near the S Windward Islands on Saturday. It also appears that the wave is gaining some latitude as well this morning...

[srainhoutx]

Th 12Z Canadian also suggests a storm near the Yucatan and a bit faster moving as well...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ALTOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at ImpactWeather have conducted a webinar update this morning. Here are the highlights...

ImpactWeather Webinar Highlights July 7, 2011

Climo: On schedule re: climo

96L: no development

Lower pressures expected in the Western Gulf and along the E Coast the next 10 days or so

MJO should reach the Western Basin next week and remain favorable for a couple of weeks

Primary concern for development would be off the E Coast and in the Western Basin (Caribbean & Gulf)

ENSO looks to remain Neutral throughout Tropical Season

2008 remains a good analog regarding this Tropical Season

SST’s are warmer than 2008 this year in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf

Euro Seasonals suggest lower pressures across the Caribbean during August, September and October

Highest risk would be Western Gulf and Florida and E Coast

Named storms increased to 15/9/4

Video Update added as well...

http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweath ... uOhO6pDXUw

[srainhoutx]

That favorable MJO pulse is looking right on schedule. There is an awful lot of deep tropical moisture available in the Western Basin and NE along the EC trough...it may be the 18Z, but guidance has been sniffing out a disturbance or two...

[Andrew]

I still see no immediate threat tropical wise for the next week or so. These next couple of waves look to be to far south to have any real chance of development and for that reason I don't see much development. Yea the MJO pulse should enhance chances but I still don't think it will be enough especially since the pulse won't be anything that special. The tropics are starting to heat up a little though and we are getting there fast. Not to mention the waters are hot to say the least:

[Ptarmigan]

Our friends at ImpactWeather have conducted a webinar update this morning. Here are the highlights...

ImpactWeather Webinar Highlights July 7, 2011

Climo: On schedule re: climo

96L: no development

Lower pressures expected in the Western Gulf and along the E Coast the next 10 days or so

MJO should reach the Western Basin next week and remain favorable for a couple of weeks

Primary concern for development would be off the E Coast and in the Western Basin (Caribbean & Gulf)

ENSO looks to remain Neutral throughout Tropical Season

2008 remains a good analog regarding this Tropical Season

SST’s are warmer than 2008 this year in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf

Euro Seasonals suggest lower pressures across the Caribbean during August, September and October

Highest risk would be Western Gulf and Florida and E Coast

Named storms increased to 15/9/4

Video Update added as well...

http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweath ... uOhO6pDXUw

If the pressure is lower, does this mean more chance for rain?

[srainhoutx]

My pet African wave has poofed out quite a bit. Perusing models, the waves are kept way far South, as mentioned, and are more likely to develop in the East Pac.

Euro 588 dm height line is still about as far South in the Caribbean in 10 days as it is now.
GFS ensembles not quite as bad. But nothing obvious. And its early July.

The ensemble mean suggest things may not be all that bad...

[srainhoutx]

Last night I posted the 18Z. Many scoff at the reliability with 'off hour' runs, but they can reinforce what 12Z guidance suggest from time to time. An area of generally disturbed weather is looking likely in the Western Basin. While a strong system may not be likely, the signals are coming together to suggest we'll begin to ramp up as we enter August... we will see...