2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[tireman4]

From HGX concerning the Tropical Weather Outlook

Model guidance continues to indicate the development of another
tropical disturbance over or near the Bay of Campeche during the
weekend which slowly tracks west northwest towards the eastern coast
of Mexico. In response to the mid to upper level ridge over the
Southern Plains, the disturbance may not be able to move northward
much and could make landfall over the eastern coast of Mexico,
similar to TS Alberto. One difference noted since the model runs
from 24 hours ago, is that the wind field does seem a little more
organized in the latest run...although still somewhat elongated as
it reaches the coastline. The general behavior of this disturbance
is similar to TS Alberto but smaller. Thus, indirect impacts from
the disturbance is possible this weekend into early next week but
not as strong as what we have been experiencing with TS Alberto. The
NHC outlook currently has a 10% chance of formation within the next
48 hours and a 50% chance of formation within the next 7 days for
this disturbance. Interests along the Texas coasts should continue
to monitor the development of this system.

What are we then to expect for the next few days? To start,
conditions are anticipated to be more on the tranquil side on
Saturday for most inland areas. Locations near and along the coasts
could see some isolated/passing showers during the day. On Sunday,
we may begin to see rain chances increasing from southwest to
northeast as low level moisture increases and diurnally driven
showers develop and/or showers and storms associated to the
disturbance move across Southeast TX. A similar weather pattern is
possible on Monday as the disturbance moves inland across the
eastern coast of Mexico. Although we are not expecting significant
impacts with this system inland, we could see limited impacts over
the coastal locations and Gulf waters. This may include higher seas,
gusty winds, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding (in
particular during high tide). We will need to wait and see how this
system develops to know more on these impacts, therefore, continue
to monitor the updated forecasts.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, pulses of low level moisture will continue
to move over our region and if the environment remains unstable and
is able to overcome the ridge, we could have isolated to scattered
showers and storms developing each day. This may give some relief
from the heat for some, but with temperatures rising into the mid
90s at some locations (mainly north of I-10) and dewpoints staying
in the upper 70s, we may be looking at daytime heat indices between
105-110 deg F increasing the potential for dangerous heat impacts
for some folks. Make sure to practice heat safety and make the
appropriate adjustments if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

[tireman4]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[tireman4]

Ocean Heat in the Gulf Of Mexico

[tireman4]

Average Sea Surface Temperature Gulf of Mexico 06 20 24

[tireman4]

This system, while sitting with a 50 percent chance of development may have some more hurdles to overcome than Alberto did. The key one may be drier air than was in place this week with Alberto. By early Sunday morning, model guidance has this system moving toward or into Mexico, but it has a large area of dry air to the north, something that was not in place this week. High pressure in the upper atmosphere will sink south this weekend from the Mid-Atlantic into the Plains and Mid-South, which will put the squeeze on this disturbance and limit intensity and how far north it can come. For Texas, this system may be a non-issue, aside from some (welcome) rain as noted earlier. For Mexico, this will have the potential to again produce heavy rain and flooding concerns in the mountains. We’ll continue to watch.

[tireman4]

The Eyewall on 92L

Our last stop today takes us off Florida, where Invest 92L has formed from the disturbance tracking westward toward the Bahamas. Odds of development are up to 40 percent with this one, and it will quickly come ashore in Florida or Georgia tomorrow. Could it become a tropical depression? It’s certainly possible. Whether or not it does, we’ll see. A swirl off the coast of Florida indicates Invest 92L, which has about a 40 percent chance of becoming a depression over the next 24 hours or so.
Invest 92L is in a bit of a tough environment. While the exposed center is a neat looking feature on satellite, it indicates generally hostile surroundings for development. Still, it’s got a chance to put something together before landfall tomorrow. A little bit of extra rain or a breeze will be possible north of about Cape Canaveral from this one, into coastal Georgia. But land impacts should not go much farther than that. Anyone vacationing in Florida or Georgia should be mindful of very high rip current risks the next couple days though.

[tireman4]

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 94.5W FOR 22/1800Z.

[tireman4]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[tireman4]

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

In the wake of Tropical Depression Alberto, a new disturbance may
form in the Bay Campeche. With the developing upper-level ridge,
model guidance suggests that this disturbance will take a similar
path into the eastern coast of Mexico. However, with the smaller
wind field and the more contained nature of this system, it is
unlikely that we will experience effects as drastic as we`ve seen in
the past few days. Some tropical moisture is expected to impact us
and may elevate rain chances, but winds and seas are expected to
remain on the calmer side of things. Even with this new friend, we
remain cautiously optimistic that we won`t be effected by two
tropical systems in a week .

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts for any
changes/updates from the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Ellis/Batiste

[Stratton20]

Models are hinting at another system moving into the caribbean in the 9-10 day period and trying to potentially develop as it generally heads towards the GOM, not a strong signal, but enough of one that it bares watching, wouldnt that be something? 3 GOM systems in june, that’s pretty rare

[Cpv17]

Models are hinting at another system moving into the caribbean in the 9-10 day period and trying to potentially develop as it generally heads towards the GOM, not a strong signal, but enough of one that it bares watching, wouldnt that be something? 3 GOM systems in june, that’s pretty rare

Bring it on! Good thing about most June systems is they remain fairly weak. I’d love a good 60mph tropical storm bringing widespread 6-12”!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I wouldnt mind that at , i guess we will have to watch and see about this maybe next system to watch potentially, but I think youre gonna love noaa’s monthly outlook for july, we continue to stay wet/unsettled, door to the gulf remains open for business, best start to a summer here in quite some time

[Pas_Bon]

Cpv17 I wouldnt mind that at , i guess we will have to watch and see about this maybe next system to watch potentially, but I think youre gonna love noaa’s monthly outlook for july, we continue to stay wet/unsettled, door to the gulf remains open for business, best start to a summer here in quite some time

I have to say…..this May/June has actually been quite pleasant thus far. I just jinxed it, though.

[DoctorMu]

Cpv17 I wouldnt mind that at , i guess we will have to watch and see about this maybe next system to watch potentially, but I think youre gonna love noaa’s monthly outlook for july, we continue to stay wet/unsettled, door to the gulf remains open for business, best start to a summer here in quite some time

I have to say…..this May/June has actually been quite pleasant thus far. I just jinxed it, though.

Same for last year, with a bit less rain, until La Niña flipped to El Niño and the blast furnace turned on full bore.

We'll escape that phenomenon this year. It could be the upper Midwest or NE that feel the wrath of El Sol this summer.

[Stratton20]

GFS shows another stronger wave axis getting into the gulf in about 9 -10 days or so, CMC 00z has a developing system in the central- western gulf at day 8-10

[Stratton20]

Well the GFS is slowly getting on board with development in the western caribbean coming from a wave that is just east of the leeward islands i believe, should be in the western caribbean in about 9 days or so, unlike the past couple of systems, this one does have a legit chance to gain latitude thanks to an east coast trough breaking off, before the heat ridge eventually builds back in and forces this due west, timing of these steering features is something to watch

[Rip76]

Invest 93L is up.

Should stroll right into Mexico.

[Stratton20]

Ensemble support is growing for another system in the western caribbean in about the 8-10 day range, what really interests me the most is you aren't seeing members just burying this into mexico, im seeing more members going towards the northern gulf coast instead of mexico, ensembles are indicating a weaker heat ridge

[Stratton20]

The GFS has been showing something approaching the texas coast as a weak wave/ disorganized low in the 9-10 day window, the wave that models are starting to pick up on, as it gets into the western caribbean, it will encounter a more conducive environment with it being potentially under a developing anti-cyclone

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the MDR next weekend into the 4th of July Holiday week. The European ensembles suggests a potential long track system may be possible.