April 2023

[Stratton20]

Its a good thing temps looks to be seasonal to slightly below normal for a bit, model’s are in decent agreement on a late but decently atrong April cold front, the good news with el nino beginning to strengthen in summer, i expect a wetter than normal summer and slightly cooler than normal, and also a quiter hurricane season which is always good news!

[Cpv17]

Hope everyones lawn got a nice drink these past few days, Noaa still has the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks with above normal precipitation across the state, but rain chances looks rather unimpressive in the models, we will see

The ensembles look better than the operationals. That’s what the CPC is going by I would imagine.

[don]

Hope everyones lawn got a nice drink these past few days, Noaa still has the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks with above normal precipitation across the state, but rain chances looks rather unimpressive in the models, we will see

Rain chances actually look pretty good this weekend.Models show a MCS with the frontal passage Saturday.

[jasons2k]

Finally checked the rain gauge. Got 1.81”

[Cromagnum]

Going to an outdoor concert in Corpus this weekend. Hope all that rain stays up here.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Cloud cover has remained noticeably more widespread across the area
this evening, and the resultant less efficient cooling has inhibited
the development of radiation fog thus far. With dewpoint
differentials higher across the board into the morning, it`s
unlikely that any widespread fog development will occur although
isolated patchy fog cannot be ruled out in any normally prone areas.

The surface synoptic conditions governing the current pattern have
remained relatively unchanged as surface high pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic have allowed for the light/moderate NE winds to persist,
with little change to the pattern expected in the coming days. Some
rainfall chances are introduced to the forecast today as a midlevel
trough moves into the area with an isolated thunderstorm or two
possible mainly to the west of the I-45 corridor. Despite this,
limited instability and a lack of deep moisture will work against
the formation of any stronger storms. With the enhanced lift
provided by the approach of the trough also proving favorable for
more widespread cloud cover, diurnal heating will be dulled with
highs maxing out in the lower/mid 70s. Rainfall across inland areas
should generally taper off this evening, though showers along the
immediate coast and offshore may persist as the mid/upper level low
stalls out over the Gulf of Mexico.

Much of the same is expected on Tuesday as the aforementioned
mid/upper low remains stalled over the Gulf. This should promote
continued cloud cover as well as additional shower/storm activity
near the coast and offshore, though any strong storm development is
not expected at this time. Highs once again reach the mid 70s, with
overnight lows returning to the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

The long term opens as an extension of the short term, where we`ve
got a low pressure friend meandering about the northwest Gulf of
Mexico, and that will have implications on our weather for the
first 36-48 hours of the long term. In general, the consensus of
the guidance is to keep the low - from the surface through the
mid-levels - to our east, though there are some various opinions
of how closely it will makes its way towards our area. But, as
long as we end up on the west side of the low`s circulation, we`ll
be in an offshore, generally drier regime.

For most, that means I`m keeping a trend of fewer clouds and
continued warming. There is a notable exception though, especially
on Wednesday as the low is wobbling closer to us. There will be a
strong plume of moisture being drawn up into Louisiana on the
eastern side of the low. The longer this occurs, the more likely
we are to have some of that increased moisture wrap around the
northern side of that low and get funneled to the eastern portion
of our area. In keeping with that, I`d expect Wednesday to feature
more clouds and a better chance of rain, maximizing around the
Galveston Bay area and the upper Gulf waters. "Maximizing" is a
relative term, here, though. My peak PoPs are in the 25-35 percent
range, trailing off to the north and west.

After reaching a close point Wednesday evening(ish, I don`t want
to get too prescriptive with a wobbly low), this feature should
finally start to open up and be drawn off to the east. This should
allow ridging to build in and be primary for the late week, but
it`s not the ridge that I maybe had in mind a few nights ago. That
stronger ridge looks to actually...slide off to the east and get
ahead of this Gulf low. Indeed, that may well be the mechanism
that pulls this low out. Instead, our late week ridge is more
likely to be a shortwave ridge riding out ahead of a more
significant upper trough digging in from the Pacific Northwest to
be the driver for the weekend. For this stretch, bringing some 80
degree highs into the coastal plain Thursday, and area-wide
Friday as the ridge axis passes by and southwest flow sets up.

Meanwhile, to the west, as the aforementioned upper trough digs
in, we`ll get lee cyclogenesis to our northwest, helping establish
onshore flow and in increase in humidity for us. Depending on how
efficient this return flow is, we may manage to get some isolated
to scattered convective development Friday. I`ve got some slight
chance PoPs, mainly in the northwest where midlevel heights will
be starting to decrease and give us a better chance at some
instability. We`ve got a better shot at this if reality is more
like the GFS, which manages to push precipitable water up over 1.5
inches for Friday afternoon and evening as well. That is more of a
moist outlier, though, so while it`s enough to get me to put some
low PoPs in there, I don`t want to sell out on Friday rain.

That is something that I`m holding in reserve for Saturday
afternoon and/or Saturday night. By then, we`ll be looking for the
stout upper trough to be pushing through the Plains. And though
the main low looks to be way up in the Great Lakes by then, we`ll
be looking for the associated cold front to begin to make its way
Gulfward through Texas and will almost certainly interact with
shortwave troughs in the southern stream, making its way over our
area in the southwest flow. From here, it all comes down to
timing. Combine the front, an upper shortwave trough, enough
moisture, and good timing to maximize instability, and we`ve got
what we need for convective development.

I did choose to tone back the NBM PoPs for Saturday afternoon and
early evening a bit - since we`re going more "small ball" and
manufacturing our environment rather than going for the home run
and the big synoptic features, things could fall apart if there`s
not the right overlap of ingredients (I`m not a baseball person,
where are these baseball references coming from?!). That said, I
have enough confidence that PoPs up to around 50 percent are
probably justified here. More likely than climatology, but not
necessarily likely on an absolute scale - we are six days out, of
course.

Something else to keep an eye on here. Ensemble data implies a
good amount of instability present Saturday afternoon. NBM SBCAPE
is in excess of 3000 J/Kg for a large chunk of our area Saturday.
The Euro ensemble Extreme Forecast Index for anomalously high CAPE
ranges from 0.6 in the east to greater than 0.8 in the west. So,
if we are going to get storms to fire on Saturday, it`s likely
they will have a lot of fuel to work with. Again, this is no slam
dunk given the ingredients that still have to line up, but we may
be keeping an eye on what potential for strong to severe storms
exists for Saturday afternoon. I`m right there with SPC, who in
their Days 4-8 outlook, notes some potential but hits us with the
"Predictability Too Low" phrase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Some lingering MVFR to IFR cigs remain in place this morning,
mainly to the north of I-10. Clouds should scatter somewhat with
cloud bases also lifting to VFR levels over the next 2-3 hours. NE
to E winds od around 5-10kts return to the area today with cigs
remaining around 4000-5000 ft. Scattered showers and a
thunderstorm or two may develop this afternoon but mainly to the
west of I-45. Confidence is lower at TAF sites and thus have
limited wording to VCSH. Tonight, winds become light and variable
with a window of MVFR cigs potentially late tomorrow night.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Northeast to east winds are expected to prevail through the first
half of the week. Light to moderate this morning, we will see a
gradual increase in wind speeds later today and particularly into
Tuesday as an upper disturbance moves into the region. This upper
disturbance will spur the development of a low pressure center
over the NW Gulf. Through this development process, rain chances
will return today then increase Tuesday and Wednesday while this
low meanders about the region. Caution flags seem likely - and
while small craft advisories can`t be ruled out, they do seem less
likely.

Rain chances, winds, and seas should briefly diminish as the low
pushes off to the east late this week. Once out of the picture,
onshore flow will return and strengthen on Friday. This continues
until the arrival of a cold front this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 55 74 53 / 20 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 73 58 76 57 / 20 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 65 73 65 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Luchs

[Stratton20]

GFS total rain over the next 10 days, GFS has some rain with this weekends frontal passage, but what I find intriguing is the GFS is hinting at a heavy rain event around the 19th, something to watch in the coming days

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Starting to see some development moving into the western portions
of the CWA at this time with slightly stronger returns just a bit
further west...all tracking slowly east. Will likely keep any/all
mention of precipitation as just VCSH for now through the rest of
the afternoon/evening. Showers/thunderstorms should decrease late
in the day, especially with the loss of daytime heating. Going on
into tonight, look for the return of brief MVFR ceilings until at
to just after sunrise, with VFR thereafter. 41

&&

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 111138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

There are two main features of interest in the forecast: in the
short term, a developing Gulf low pressure center. In the long
term, a frontal passage on Saturday. Here`s the main thing on each
one:

Midweek Gulf Low - As we are generally expected to be on the
western side of this low, impacts to our area should be minimal.
Overnight lows may be a bit cooler than typical, and rain chances
should be mostly restricted to the Gulf waters and roughly east of
I-45.

Saturday Front - High confidence in a cold front moving through
this weekend, and for now the most likely timeframe looks to be
Saturday afternoon or evening. There are some factors that point
to potential for strong to severe storms with this front. However,
other factors make declaring a severe threat with much confidence
difficult at this time - keep an eye on the weekend forecast as we
refine details in the forecast this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

The main point of interest in the short term period continues to be
the development of a surface low over the Central Gulf, which is
expected to deepen over the next 48 hours as a near-stationary
midlevel low remains stalled overhead. While most of the impacts
from this system are expected to occur to our west, our rainfall
chances over the next several days will be largely dependent on its
exact track.

Clear skies overnight have proved favorable for efficient cooling
across most of the area, with some portions of the northern zones
reaching the lower 50s as of 3 AM. Scattered cloud cover will remain
on a diminishing trend throughout the course of the day today across
inland areas, while fairly widespread clouds will remain situated
over the immediate coast where the position of the aforementioned
midlevel low and developing surface low will provide the "best" (20-
40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Nonetheless, widespread storm development should once again be
limited by moisture availability and marginal instability. As winds
remain out of the NE and cloud cover remains in place, today`s high
should mostly remain situated in the mid 70s.

Clearing skies will once again provide efficient radiative cooling
overnight, with low temperatures dropping back into the 50s. Rain
chances will be on the increase on Wednesday as the surface low over
the Gulf moves northward towards the Louisiana coast. Higher
rainfall chances will be concentrated along and east of the I-45
corridor as a result. Winds will remain out of the E/NE as broad sfc
high pressure remains situated over the Mid-Atlantic. Overnight lows
again drop into the 50s, near normal values for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

The primary period of interest here in the long term is focused
squarely on the weekend - in particular, Saturday afternoon and
evening, which looks like the most likely time for a cold front to
sweep through the area. Ensemble data strongly suggests a very
anomalous amount of thunderstorm fuel to work with. There is less
confidence in other ingredients needed for severe weather, but it is
suggestive that we`ll have to track how expectations evolve through
the week.

Before that, though, we`ll have a warm stretch for the latter part
of the work week. As the low pressure feature that dominates the
short term begins to move off, we`ll transition to a brief ridging
regime over Southeast Texas. Our usual warm spots on the coastal
plain will be the first to break back over 80 degrees on Thursday,
joined by the rest of the area on Friday. Saturday`s temperatures
become very interesting, and will be heavily driven by frontal
timing. An earlier front will chop off heat before it gets too
warm...but southwest flow ahead of a tardy front means we turn the
torch on Saturday afternoon. Assuming my frontal timing is correct
(a big if five days out, to be sure, but let me cook) I like the
qualitative idea of the NBM keeping the coast warmer and the north
warm, but held back a bit by the front making it in during the
afternoon. However, I did sharpen the gradient some from the NBM
verbatim.

Of course, temperatures aren`t the only thing we`re looking at for
Saturday. My first PoPs are actually earlier though, on Friday
afternoon and Friday night. These slight chances are more associated
with light showers we can see on the main corridor of return flow,
and with the natural isentropic lift we can expect with the influx
of warmer, more humid Gulf air. We typically manage to squeeze out a
small handful of fast-moving, very weak showers and enough that I
feel like I need some 15-20 percent PoPs in there.

But with that out of the way, the main show is going to be on
Saturday ahead of and along the incoming cold front. The elephant in
the room will be the instability available to any potential storms.
The Euro ensemble Extreme Forecast Index now is above 0.8 for CAPE
across all of Southeast Texas, and above 0.9 along the coast near
Matagorda Bay. Additionally, the shift of tails contour exceeds 1
along our entire coastal area. Taken together, this indicates a high
probability of anomalously high instability present on Saturday
afternoon, and an increase potential for a climatologically extreme
amount of instability. NBM SBCAPE values have actually backed off a
touch, but are still above 2800 J/Kg area-wide, and peak well above
3000 J/Kg. It is a very high confidence forecast from me that we
will have a very high energy environment available to us on Saturday
afternoon.

But instability alone does not a severe weather event make! Class,
pull out your severe thunderstorm ingredients cheat sheet. In that
good ol` SLIM acronym, there`s a whole lot of I that we can expect
to be present at peak heating. But what about those other letters?
Shear...first letter and we`re already running into issues. Flow
looks to be fairly unidirectional ahead of the front with veered
surface winds and deterministic guidance only has 500 mb flow in the
20-30 knot range, so the speed shear may not be super impressive,
either. In fact, remember those really big and scary EFI CAPE
numbers? It also has a two-dimensional CAPE-Shear analysis, and that
high confidence 0.8+ area bulls-eyeing us drops below 0.5 - right
back into the normal range. This implies not only an amount of shear
that isn`t seasonally abnormal, but even pulls the impressive
instability numbers back into more typical parameter space. Now,
that said, mid-April is a pretty solid time for severe weather, so
even climatologically typical environments can easily produce severe
weather. But it definitely also means we need to reduce our
confidence accordingly.

Okay, the other parts of this acronym. L for lift - the front itself
is going to be a focus for mechanical lift, and all guidance shows a
stream of shortwave troughs/vort maxes in the southwest flow aloft.
These could also promote lift. The trouble here is that both of
these are smaller, harder to predict features that rely heavily on
the right timing. This is not a deep, beefy longwave trough knocking
down midlevel heights and streaming tons of cyclonic vorticity
overhead that you just have to have somewhere nearby at peak
heating. We`ll need the front in the right spot to initiate storms,
and a shortwave in the right spot to support, rather than suppress,
lift. Could it happen? Sure! Will it happen? *Giant Shrug* Maybe!
Another source of uncertainty.

Finally, last one, moisture. This one puts us back on a little more
solid footing. Progged precipitable water is in the 1.2 to 1.5
range. Not anomalously high - beneath the 90th percentile in both
the NAEFS and Euro ensemble means - but probably sufficient to
support convection. My dewpoints in the grids pre-front are 70
degrees, give or take a couple degrees either way. I don`t see this
as a bug-eye factor like the CAPE, but it`s not a big source of
uncertainty for me either.

All in all, with the high confidence in a lot of instability,
sufficient moisture, and at least a chance at solid lift, we`ve got
to keep an eye on Saturday`s potential. The key things we need to
nail down will be if the timing of a shortwave trough and the front
will coincide with peak instability, and if there will be enough
shear to support organized convective updrafts. I`m still waiting on
SPC`s newest Day 4-8 outlook, but it would not be a surprise to see
them continue the "Predictability Too Low" trend for the third day
in a row.

Though the low pressure center this front is attached will be up in
Canada, there still looks to be enough oomph in the post-frontal
airmass to scour things out pretty effectively, as a 1025+ high
looks to drop into the Southern Plains Sunday. This should bring in
a noticeably cooler and drier airmass for the new week.
The mid-April sun is probably still going to make for seasonably
warm afternoons, but I`ve got lows well into the 50s area-wide
Sunday night, and even those way up north could sneak below 50
degrees around dawn Monday - think B/CS, Madisonville, Crockett.
Don`t get too attached, though. That solid surface high moves off to
the east pretty quickly, and we`ve got onshore flow back in place by
Monday night, and we begin the moisture return process anew.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

VFR conditions should generally prevail through the duration of
the TAF period with BKN decks holding at around 4000-7000 ft
throughout the course of the day. Scattered showers have developed
along the immediate coast and will continue to develop through
the afternoon, though coverage is expected to be limited enough to
the point where VCSH wording only has been included for GLS/LBX.
Otherwise, light NE to E winds continue into the evening, after
which winds become light and variable. VFR cigs maintain overnight
with another round of scattered showers developing tomorrow.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

Light northeast winds early this morning are expected to increase
through the day due to the low pressure center developing in the
northwest Gulf underneath an upper low. Though generally moderate,
wind speeds could begin to approach the Caution threshold on the
Gulf this afternoon and evening. Not enough confidence to put out a
SCEC right now, but if wind trends support it, the day shift may
need to put it out. As this developing Gulf low meanders off the
coast of Lousiana through Wednesday, there will also be chances of
showers and storms mainly over the Gulf.
Galveston Bay will have a higher chance of rain than Matagorda Bay.

Expect onshore flow to return late in the week as this low
eventually moves away from the area. This sets us up for the next
front, which can be expected this weekend - likely Saturday night.
Advisory-level wind speeds may be possible with northerly winds
behind the front on Sunday.

At the shore, we may need to keep an eye on water levels with the
Gulf low meandering off to our east. While not strong enough to
generate a lot of swell, astronomical tides are already fairly high -
around 2 feet above MLLW - so an extra foot above normal will have
things closer to impactful levels than we might usually expect from
a feature of this strength. I don`t anticipate tides will be high
enough to need any sort of coastal flood headlines, but it is
something to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

The hydrological situation continues to improve after the rainy end
to last week. At this time, the East Fork of the San Jacinto River
at New Caney (NCET2) is the only site in flood or forecast to be in
flood. The river crested Sunday night and is receding.
Per the current forecast, it is expected to fall below flood stage
Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 52 75 52 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 75 57 76 56 / 10 0 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 73 64 73 63 / 40 20 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Luchs

[DoctorMu]

Just enjoying the weather this week! Lower DPs, mild temps. The next chance of rain >30% per the sensible NWS forecast is Saturday with the next FROPA.

In the last half of April and early May we're starting the move from severe season and FROPAs to popcorn shower and sea breeze. From a climo standpoint this part of the year and October are the best chance of rain in SETX. Thus, no surprise if GFS hedges its bets, especially with a transition through neutral to El Nino ENSO.

We can and do have severe weather (hail tornados), but the chances begin to dwindle after another week or two here.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu some of the really long extended range models suggest most of summer and winter could be wetter than normal, with el nino beginning to strengthen heading towards fall/ winter, im definitely optimistic the state wont be dealing with as severe drought conditions like what we have had in the past, good riddance la nina!

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period
for most locations with the main impacts being periodic rounds of
showers/storms along the coast and a slight chance of patchy fog
for western locations. High resolution model guidance points
toward showers/storms developing around 20Z this afternoon along
the coast. VCSH has been added for HOU/LBX/GLS as a result from
around 20Z through 01Z/02Z. Northeast to northeast winds will
prevail into the early evening becoming light and variable after
sunset. Some model guidance is hinting at patchy fog developing in
the early morning hours of Wednesday, especially in southwestern
and northwestern locations. The most favorable location for now
appears to be CLL. Also in the overnight hours, another round of
showers/storms looks to develop just offshore, so VCSH has been
added for GLS again around 11Z. Showers/storms are expected to
develop further inland on Wednesday afternoon around 20Z, so
expect to see mentions of this in further TAF packages if the
trends hold.

Batiste

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu some of the really long extended range models suggest most of summer and winter could be wetter than normal, with el nino beginning to strengthen heading towards fall/ winter, im definitely optimistic the state wont be dealing with as severe drought conditions like what we have had in the past, good riddance la nina!

Certainly more rain than last summer.

You can't set the bar much lower!

[Cpv17]

I see nothing interesting on the horizon.

[Stratton20]

Yep weather pattern looks like an absolute snooze fest ridging - zonal flow dominates the pattern for at least the next 7-10 days, even Saturday’s chance for rain looks “ meh” now

[jasons2k]

For now, this weather is amazing!! We saw a record number of people out dog walking yesterday. It was like an obstacle course keep them all separated in the neighborhood.

Go outside, soak it in, and enjoy it while it lasts.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023

The sky is mostly clear early this morning across the vast
majority of Southeast Texas, though fog is cropping up in the
known problem spots (oh, hey there, Angleton and Wharton!). It is
a slightly different story over the Gulf, where there are a small
handful of isolated showers, loosely associated with the surface
low over the Gulf south of Louisiana.

This should broadly be the paradigm much of the rest of the day
continues under. The thing to look out for will be for modestly
increasing rain chances sneaking in from the east this afternoon
as that Gulf low slowly makes its way northward...also with a
little bit of a westward drift. The best chance for rain will be
from the counties containing I-45 eastward (plus Fort Bend and
Brazoria), and even there, the expectations would be for some
widely scattered showers and perhaps even an embedded
thunderstorm. West of there, some isolated showers may try to eke
in from the east, but by this time, it will be too late in the day
and with the setting sun, things should be falling apart. By early
evening, I carry slight chance PoPs as far west as College
Station, Wharton, and Bay City for those last gasp showers before
we clear out for the night.

Beyond those rain chances, most should get a good bit of sun
through the day, helping to again push temps into the middle to
upper 70s. Maybe someone snags an 80 today? That`s above my
deterministic forecast, but certainly plausible. If it happens
anywhere, the prime spot will surely be the Houston heat island
and the coastal plain extending to the metro`s northeast and
southwest. Peeking at the NBM probability of reaching 80 degrees,
and that band ranges from 10-60 percent. I`d tend to lean a little
more towards the higher half of that probability range
personally.

Expect pretty close to a repeat of current conditions tonight,
with a mostly clear sky emerging and an emerging chance of fog as
winds decouple and become light. Similarly, we can expect lows in
the upper 50s to around 60 at the Gulf coast, dropping lower into
the 50s inland.

Tomorrow is not expected to be significantly different from today.
The main change will be that Gulf low heading north, will now have
more of an eastward component to its motion than a westward one,
putting us more decidedly on its western side with offshore flow,
ending the intrusion of wraparound moisture from the east.
Additionally, as the upper low begins to eject, shortwave ridging
will be building in aloft. The result should be nil PoPs and an
even sunnier sky. And yes, this likely means high temperatures a
bit warmer - not a lot, but it should be enough to push a band of
those upper 70s highs today up over into the lower 80s tomorrow.

Another new thing to emerge later Thursday afternoon will be the
return of weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus the
return of onshore flow at the coast, then farther inland into the
evening. Onshore flow means higher dewpoints, and higher dewpoints
means higher overnight lows. This will be a process, so those up
in our far north beyond Lake Livingston towards the Piney Woods
probably still have one more night in the lower to mid 50s. But as
you head south towards the Gulf, expect lows more in the upper
50s, and once you get south of I-10, expect lows to get stuck in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Steady onshore flow will continue to prevail on Friday, resulting in
a fairly robust surge of Gulf moisture throughout the course of the
day as total PWs reach in excess of 1.5 in. While the resulting WAA
will allow for the warming trend to continue, diurnal heating will
also be blunted by widespread cloud cover and thus highs should max
out in the lower 80s across much of the region. Overnight lows will
hover in the upper 60s to low 70s as the aforementioned cloud cover
also limits radiative cooling.

Our main concern in the extended forecast period continues to
surround the approach of a cold front on Saturday, which looks to
approach the area during the afternoon/early evening. Environmental
conditions ahead of the approach of the front continue to appear
favorable for the development of some stronger storms, as global
models continue to show a gradient of increasing SB instability
towards the coast with many locations in excess of 3000 J/kg on
Saturday afternoon. Despite this, however, wind shear remains
limited which may inhibit updraft sustainability and will keep the
development prospects for supercell storms relatively low given the
aforementioned instability. Nonetheless, given the abundant
moisture, strong SBCAPE values, and favorable lapse rates, the
development of stronger storms cannot be ruled out. Despite the
relatively weak shear, updrafts may still be able to support the
development of some hail as the front and associated storms move
through the area.

The boundary should push offshore by late Sunday, with moderate
north/northeast winds prevailing in its wake. A relatively benign
period is expected through the end of the weekend and into the early
part of next week as surface high pressure moves in overhead. Highs
in the upper 70s/low 80s, lows in the 50s, and dew points
comfortably in the 40s/50s will prevail through Tuesday as surface
high pressure departs the area and gives way to moisture return.
Deeper moisture by Wednesday as a midlevel shortwave approaches the
area will being us our next chance of more widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023

VFR - and SKC - for the large majority of the area this morning.
Fog popping up in trouble spots, but of the TAF sites, LBX the
only terminal being impacted, with VSBY bouncing between 1 and 6SM.
That should resolve in the next couple of hours, with NE to E
winds increasing to 5-10 kts and VFR CIGs for the afternoon. Also
expect some isolated to widely scattered showers and even a
thunderstorm or two pushing from east to west. Stuck with PROB30
for now as confidence that any specific terminal will be hit is
fairly low. Opted for no rain mention at all at CLL, as showers
should fall apart before reaching there early evening. Repeat
tonight with sky clearing, winds light, and fog potential cropping
up late.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today as a surface
low over the Central Gulf approaches Louisiana. While the greatest
impacts from this system will occur to our east, these scattered
storms will nonetheless prevail into the evening today. Onshore
winds return on Thursday night as the surface low departs, and
increase in strength ahead of the approach of our next cold front on
Saturday. More widespread showers and storms will accompany this
front, with the potential for some stronger storms near the coast.
Moderate NE winds will develop behind the departing front on Sunday,
potentially requiring cautions and/or Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 53 78 58 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 56 81 59 / 30 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 63 75 68 / 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cady

[DoctorMu]

For now, this weather is amazing!! We saw a record number of people out dog walking yesterday. It was like an obstacle course keep them all separated in the neighborhood.

Go outside, soak it in, and enjoy it while it lasts.

Yep. Appropriate Spring weather. DPs are still in the 50s. Another cool night, I'll allow it!

Return flow on Friday and slight chance of showers, then more of this. Great stuff. It's light in the evening but still pleasant.

This won't last much longer!

[Stratton20]

I would say enjoy this cooler weather while it lasts because Id say we are pretty much finished with any sort of strong front, this is usually the time of the year when fronts start to just stall out and not make it all the way through SE Texas

[jasons2k]

Picked up 0.16” from a quick thunderstorm. Not a lot but enough to moisten things up again.