Page 14 of 18
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 5:32 pm
by cisa
I was in Humble a couple of hours ago and it was coming down in buckets. It was kind of a typical squally rain. I assume that's what we'll see over the next few days. it was a pretty hard rain though. I didn't expect it to come in like that till tonight or tomorrow.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:10 pm
by cisa
That's quite a text book radar. Thanks for sharing that.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:14 pm
by Bluefalcon
Looks like Hermine is slowing down based off of radar and recon. NWS radar out of Brownsville is showing the stall for the last hour. latest recon pass showed only a 3 mile distance from the previous fix, and it had moved a tad north.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:21 pm
by Andrew
Latest:
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:25 pm
by biggerbyte
I thought it looked like everything from a stall to a north movement. My concern is if it decides to stall long enough to strengthen significantly, then start moving north more towards corpus.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:36 pm
by ticka1
biggerbyte wrote:I thought it looked like everything from a stall to a north movement. My concern is if it decides to stall long enough to strengthen significantly, then start moving north more towards corpus.
You know that's not gonna happen - I can see the flurry of posts. Its gonna go into Mexico. I have been reading all across the internet that folks are seeing the stall. Maybe its holding its own to become a hurricane. At least Hermine gave me something to do today besides housework.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:37 pm
by Bluefalcon
biggerbyte wrote:I thought it looked like everything from a stall to a north movement. My concern is if it decides to stall long enough to strengthen significantly, then start moving north more towards corpus.
Recon is going in for another pass.....see if our observations hold water
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:40 pm
by Bluefalcon
http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg
Note the frontal boundry across the panhandle and across Kansas.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:43 pm
by Katdaddy
Hermine is just like his brother Humberto......close to shore with RI. The most difficult situations for tc preparations . We make many plans based on several days but what if you had 24 hours to prepare for a CAT 3-5? It does occur and Charley was a prime example
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:44 pm
by kayci
What does that mean? is it gonna push Hermine back out to open waters?!?!?!?
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:46 pm
by srainhoutx
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:49 pm
by cisa
What do you think srain?
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:53 pm
by ticka1
Good question will the front keep Hermine's rains around for longer or will there be a weakness and she will go north and push thru the frontal boundary? Or ride the frontal boundary.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:55 pm
by srainhoutx
There is high pressure to the NE that has been ridging into TX. Hermine is not strong enough IMO to be influenced by the Upper Flow. That would suggest that the motion would have to be WNW NW or N. Hermine is a bit stronger via RECON and this slowing down certainly helped regarding development. Hermine may move as far N as the Brownville area. We shall see.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:01 pm
by srainhoutx
Going to make a run at Hurricane status...
000
WTNT35 KNHC 062345
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:04 pm
by Bluefalcon
Recon just made an outbound turn. Looking at the wind directions on the track line; something interesting is afoot. Will wait for the Vortex to confirm. Kinda already seeing it on radar.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:08 pm
by Bluefalcon
Also noted that recon had some 60knt flight level winds in the East quad. Is definitely getting a little stronger.
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:13 pm
by Bluefalcon
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 00:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2010
Storm Name: Hermine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 23:33:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°49'N 97°08'W (24.8167N 97.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 80 miles (129 km) to the SSE (164°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,346m (4,416ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 137° at 52kts (From the SE at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NNE (27°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the east quadrant at 23:35:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the east quadrant at 23:35:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Based off the last 3 center fixes.......Hermine in now moving North to sightly East of North
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:14 pm
by srainhoutx
Bluefalcon wrote:Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 00:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2010
Storm Name: Hermine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 23:33:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°49'N 97°08'W (24.8167N 97.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 80 miles (129 km) to the SSE (164°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,346m (4,416ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 137° at 52kts (From the SE at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NNE (27°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the east quadrant at 23:35:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the east quadrant at 23:35:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Based off the last 3 center fixes.......Hermine in now moving North to sightly East of North
Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:22 pm
by Bluefalcon
Srainhoutx.......man I wish I had you PC weather skills!
