July 2022

[jasons2k]

Lots of lightning now. It’s 99 here still. Maybe this outflow will kick something up.

[Cromagnum]

Beautiful towering thunderstorms looking north towards Spring and northeast towards Baytown.

[jasons2k]

So close…

[jasons2k]

Lightning

[Cromagnum]

Maybe, just maybe….
Hope that storm near Houston holds together.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Did that storm blow up south of you Jason?

I feel like it did … you are cursed!

[jasons2k]

Did that storm blow up south of you Jason?

I feel like it did … you are cursed!

Yep, just south of me. So close. I have a lightning show with a cool breeze and the occasional spritz of mist. Wonderful photos though but dang I need the rain!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah, I hear you. I am pinned between two cells.

Just back from Nashville where it rained for a bit every day and dip into the 70s for a while when it did.

[Stratton20]

00z NAM models coming in much further west with the gulf disturbance
Edit most of the 00z Mesoscale models are further west compared to the global models

[user:null]

Lightning

I know you said that the dryness in your area was getting bad. But I'd almost say that the scene in that photo, with trees combined with thunderheads, looks perfectly lush (though the silhouette view probably conceals any desiccation).

Great pictures, overall

[user:null]

00z NAM models coming in much further west with the gulf disturbance
Edit most of the 00z Mesoscale models are further west compared to the global models

I'm rooting for the CMC compared to the other globals regarding this thing, as it has been the most consistent in penetrating the stuff west into Texas. The 12z Euro run would be atrocious, while the GFS is OK (12z, though 18z might not be too bad).

[captainbarbossa19]

00z NAM models coming in much further west with the gulf disturbance
Edit most of the 00z Mesoscale models are further west compared to the global models

I'm rooting for the CMC compared to the other globals regarding this thing, as it has been the most consistent in penetrating the stuff west into Texas. The 12z Euro run would be atrocious, while the GFS is OK (12z, though 18z might not be too bad).

0z GFS has the heaviest rain now just to the southeast of the upper Texas coast now though. I like the trend but we need to get more models on board. Also, we need something to form and move west in reality. This isn't over yet.

[DoctorMu]

There's outflow south of us, but it won't amount to anything here.

It's after midnight and still in the 90s.

[Stratton20]

00z EPS, most take it NE after entering the gulf but their are a few members that still suggests Texas is in play, unlikely though

[Cromagnum]

All the storms last night evaporated before getting too far south. I see the radar is active this morning again though.

[Stormlover2020]

00z EPS, most take it NE after entering the gulf but their are a few members that still suggests Texas is in play, unlikely though

Nothing has even developed, nobody knows until we have something formed, so I wouldn’t say unlikely.

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 true, alrhough if this forms closer to land its is very likely going to get tugged NE by a trough, leaving us high and dry

[Stormlover2020]

All depends where center develops

[Stratton20]

12z Mesocale models agree on a Louisiana landfall, why I unfortunately believe this system is very unlikely to impact us at all, if we look at the 500 MB height anomaly maps we have a ridge centered to our NW and the bermuda high centered to the east of florida, in between those two highs we have a trough coming out of the NE, it is not a very strong trough, but it’s strong enough to pull this system to the NE as the weakness between the two highs is over Lousiana-Florida. Things could change, but its not likely as models have been very consistent with this scenario

[jasons2k]

Short range models want to give me rain this evening. We’ll see, but the pattern is changing. Yesterday was encouraging even though it missed me. It’s good to see the cumulus build instead of getting constantly squashed.