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Looks like Vermilian Bay/Innercoastal City, LA this run. If I'm not mistaken, that's a good bit west of the previous runs, is it not?

New Orleans afternoon AFD...snip...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THE REMANANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND SE LA. SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WED AND START
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER WED ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUT A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ENTIRE AREA FROM 00Z TUE THRU 18Z WED.

Candy Cane wrote:Looks like Vermilian Bay/Innercoastal City, LA this run. If I'm not mistaken, that's a good bit west of the previous runs, is it not?

I’m still thinking closer to Grand Chenier. Maybe split the difference between Grand Chenier and Vermilion and say around White Lake??

Candy Cane wrote:Looks like Vermilian Bay/Innercoastal City, LA this run. If I'm not mistaken, that's a good bit west of the previous runs, is it not?

FYI, its Intracoastal City

Candy Cane wrote:Looks like Vermilian Bay/Innercoastal City, LA this run. If I'm not mistaken, that's a good bit west of the previous runs, is it not?

If you plot the GFS down to 1/2 or 1/4 millibars, then the center moves inland near Grand Isle around noon Tuesday and passes north of Vermilion Bay (over Lafayette) then north of Lake Charles then near Lufkin at 84 hrs. The later runs are actually farther east from yesterday's runs. Hang on, I'll post a plot.

Lake Charles afternoon AFD...snip...

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS WE MOVE INTO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
FIVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL EMERGE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. ALL GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVING IT TOWARDS THE
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND NAM A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. NHC HAS UPGRADED
THEIR OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM TO 30% OR MEDIUM CHANCE THIS WILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY. HURRICANE HUNTERS
ARE SCHEDULE TO INVESTIGATE THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS IF IT DOES DEVELOP OR NOT THIS
WILL BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LATEST HPC QPF TOTALS HAS ROUGHLY 3 TO
5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ACADIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA. 2 TO 3
INCHES FOR SWLA AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR SE TX AT 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR CWA WHICH
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST PW
VALUES ARE UP TO 2.8 IN WHICH IS A VERY TROPICAL. DEPENDING ON
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE
FORECAST AND WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF ACADIANA IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. STAY TUNED.

Here's an animation I made of the 12Z GFS positions. Isobars are plotted every 0.25 millibar to give better resolution. Valid times are at the bottom of the animation:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/GFSloop.gif

Looking at the latest visible loop, you can really make out the low as it books it south. The speed is something to watch also. If it keeps up this speed south it could really get far south in no time. Another interesting thing about this storm is a lot of the convection is too the west of the low right now.




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Also lets pray that this storm doesn't get farther south because it is hot out there:

wxman57 wrote:Here's an animation I made of the 12Z GFS positions. Isobars are plotted every 0.25 millibar to give better resolution. Valid times are at the bottom of the animation:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/GFSloop.gif

WOW! If you could do this more that would be GREAT! Do you know wxman if there is anywhere that is affordable to get a better resolution of the GFS and other models?

Went to SW LA this weekend - they don't seem too worried about this system. They need the rain and a break from the heat wave too. So where-ever it goes if it develops into a recognizeable system is somewhere along the gulf coast.

TD5 wasn't much and this is the ghost of TD5 so I'm not expecting anything great from it. Just something to keep the tropical watchers occupied for a few days.

ticka1 wrote:Went to SW LA this weekend - they don't seem too worried about this system. They need the rain and a break from the heat wave too. So where-ever it goes if it develops into a recognizeable system is somewhere along the gulf coast.

TD5 wasn't much and this is the ghost of TD5 so I'm not expecting anything great from it. Just something to keep the tropical watchers occupied for a few days.

I have a residence here in SW LA, unaware is the word I would choose.

Check out the exploding convection to the west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

18Z GFS @ 48 hours



60 hours



78 hours

That blow up right at the Miss/Bama state line.

Rip76 wrote:That blow up right at the Miss/Bama state line.

That’s the blow up I was referring too. Sorry for any miscommunication.

Looks like we'll be just close enough to the circulation to see some heavy rain from this. We should see some decent totals along and east of IH-45

srainhoutx wrote:18Z GFS @ 48 hours

Off shore in the GOM?????

Mr. T wrote:Looks like we'll be just close enough to the circulation to see some heavy rain from this. We should see some decent totals along and east of IH-45

Especially if the models are a little to far east.



Also p.s. to everyone please remove the image tags when you quote someone who posted images. It will help prevent the board from getting too cluttered.

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Andrew wrote:

Mr. T wrote:Looks like we'll be just close enough to the circulation to see some heavy rain from this. We should see some decent totals along and east of IH-45

Especially if the models are a little to far east.

Even current projections would give us a good chance of rain. Note all of the convection to the west of the circulation today. This should continue to occur as it heads towards the TX/LA border