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December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:
Large damaging tornado has impacted the eastern side of Dallas County including Garland and Rowlett. Extensive damage is being reported with numerous injuries in the Sunnyvale area where it appears multiple mobile homes have been destroyed. City of Rowlett is reporting widespread extensive damage to many homes…some homes completely destroyed. Images show the tornado at least ¼ to ½ mile wide over the City of Rowlett. Numerous vehicles overturned on I-30 near Rowlett.
Attached Image 1147 shows massive tornado just S of I-30. Image 1148 shows tornado over the City of Rowlett from Rockwall looking across Lake Ray Hubbard.
Large damaging tornado has impacted the eastern side of Dallas County including Garland and Rowlett. Extensive damage is being reported with numerous injuries in the Sunnyvale area where it appears multiple mobile homes have been destroyed. City of Rowlett is reporting widespread extensive damage to many homes…some homes completely destroyed. Images show the tornado at least ¼ to ½ mile wide over the City of Rowlett. Numerous vehicles overturned on I-30 near Rowlett.
Attached Image 1147 shows massive tornado just S of I-30. Image 1148 shows tornado over the City of Rowlett from Rockwall looking across Lake Ray Hubbard.
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will we see the threat of tornadoes like Dallas is experiencing tonight?
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Kevin Queen
srainhoutx wrote:Andrew and I have been chatting about our severe potential for SE Texas tomorrow morning/midday. The latest HRRR is getting a bit worrisome for our local Houston and Bryan/College Station area.
Actually, to me it looks like the bigger severe threat looks like it will take place in Bryan and College Station as opposed to our local Houston area. Or maybe I'm wishcasting, eh?
What's your feel for timing in CLL at peak risk - about 10 am?srainhoutx wrote:Andrew and I have been chatting about our severe potential for SE Texas tomorrow morning/midday. The latest HRRR is getting a bit worrisome for our local Houston and Bryan/College Station area.
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srainhoutx
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Depending on the forward speed of the Central Texas squall line, I think 9-11 AM sounds about right. That said HGX is repeatedly mentioning their expected timing is based on the storm systems the past couple of months. It is also noteworthy that this bowling ball 5H low is a different animal that we have experienced this late Fall/early Winter season. Need to see the actual track of the 700mb low and the surface low expected to move NE from the Lower Rio Grande Valley toward SE Texas. The 00Z data out Corpus and Lake Charles appear to support damaging winds and a possible tornado or 3. Andrew will look closer at all the data and likely will post his analysis later tonight.DoctorMu wrote:
What's your feel for timing in CLL at peak risk - about 10 am?
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:
Long track violent tornado impacts populated E Dallas and NW Rockwall Counties northward in Collin County. Cities of Garland and Rowlett have suffered extensive damage with many hundreds of homes damaged and destroyed. Video and still images from Rockwall TX filmed the tornado moving through the City of Rowlett…tornado was at least ½ of a mile wide and likely a high end EF rating. Initial damage images show well built brick homes nearly destroyed. DFW regional emergency services are reporting many injuries and possible fatalities in Rowlett.
Low level wind shear maximized late this afternoon as cap broken yielding nearly every cell that developed to become a supercell and rotate. Favorable low level shear environment and very low LCL’s have maintained favorable tornado production parameters this evening with warm sector supercells. Cap has built back northward early this evening preventing additional warm sector development, but recent radar trends from SW TX show rapid enhancement of echoes from Del Rio northward as strong lift from approaching upper level system and developing surface low arrives overtop of the western edge of the warm sector.
High resolution models are not overly aggressive with overnight develop and move a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms into SE TX around daybreak. This line does begin to intensify as it crosses the area midday Sunday. Air mass will become increasingly unstable with cap rapidly eroding in the morning hours on Sunday. Not liking the broken line idea versus a more solid squall line…broken lines tend to favor more supercell development and tornado potential while solid squall lines tend to favor more straight line wind damage. Line becomes increasing S to N in orientation as the upper level system takes on a slight SE to NW tilt…this would favor supercells moving NNE to N within the broad line. Track of surface low just to the NW of SE TX will help to keep surface winds backed to the SSE to SE with low level jet of 55-60kts out of the south above that and then WSW mid level speed max of around 100kts above that…plenty of turning and wind shear will be in place. Main question is how much instability will be available. Today required around 2000 J/kg per the 18Z DFW sounding to get updrafts to pop and equate with the shear values. Looking at 800-1500 J/kg over SE TX by late morning tomorrow which on that high end may be enough to see more supercell structures. Models do show some warm sector development ahead of the main band of storms during the late morning hours and should this verify…these storms will need to be watched very closely for rotation.
Storms will also be moving very quickly which will limit warning lead times on Sunday. Cell motions of 35-45mph are likely on Sunday.
1150 image: Destructive tornado moving through the City of Rowlett
1151 image: Remains of well built brick homes in Rowlett, TX
Note: There have been more tornado deaths since December 23rd than the entire year of 2015 before December 23rd. The last 3 days have been incredibly violent with tornadoes across the southern US…with 17 fatalities. The 17 do not include any fatalities from tonight.
New Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued for SW TX:
Long track violent tornado impacts populated E Dallas and NW Rockwall Counties northward in Collin County. Cities of Garland and Rowlett have suffered extensive damage with many hundreds of homes damaged and destroyed. Video and still images from Rockwall TX filmed the tornado moving through the City of Rowlett…tornado was at least ½ of a mile wide and likely a high end EF rating. Initial damage images show well built brick homes nearly destroyed. DFW regional emergency services are reporting many injuries and possible fatalities in Rowlett.
Low level wind shear maximized late this afternoon as cap broken yielding nearly every cell that developed to become a supercell and rotate. Favorable low level shear environment and very low LCL’s have maintained favorable tornado production parameters this evening with warm sector supercells. Cap has built back northward early this evening preventing additional warm sector development, but recent radar trends from SW TX show rapid enhancement of echoes from Del Rio northward as strong lift from approaching upper level system and developing surface low arrives overtop of the western edge of the warm sector.
High resolution models are not overly aggressive with overnight develop and move a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms into SE TX around daybreak. This line does begin to intensify as it crosses the area midday Sunday. Air mass will become increasingly unstable with cap rapidly eroding in the morning hours on Sunday. Not liking the broken line idea versus a more solid squall line…broken lines tend to favor more supercell development and tornado potential while solid squall lines tend to favor more straight line wind damage. Line becomes increasing S to N in orientation as the upper level system takes on a slight SE to NW tilt…this would favor supercells moving NNE to N within the broad line. Track of surface low just to the NW of SE TX will help to keep surface winds backed to the SSE to SE with low level jet of 55-60kts out of the south above that and then WSW mid level speed max of around 100kts above that…plenty of turning and wind shear will be in place. Main question is how much instability will be available. Today required around 2000 J/kg per the 18Z DFW sounding to get updrafts to pop and equate with the shear values. Looking at 800-1500 J/kg over SE TX by late morning tomorrow which on that high end may be enough to see more supercell structures. Models do show some warm sector development ahead of the main band of storms during the late morning hours and should this verify…these storms will need to be watched very closely for rotation.
Storms will also be moving very quickly which will limit warning lead times on Sunday. Cell motions of 35-45mph are likely on Sunday.
1150 image: Destructive tornado moving through the City of Rowlett
1151 image: Remains of well built brick homes in Rowlett, TX
Note: There have been more tornado deaths since December 23rd than the entire year of 2015 before December 23rd. The last 3 days have been incredibly violent with tornadoes across the southern US…with 17 fatalities. The 17 do not include any fatalities from tonight.
New Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued for SW TX:
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Andrew
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Spc has a 10% hatched area for a large portion of SE and E Texas. Models slow the progression of the storms until late tomorrow which would only amplify the chances. Overall tomorrow could be a dangerous day.
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srainhoutx
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Stay weather aware today folks. From our own NWS Houston/Galveston:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS SE TX. AT 2 AM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED
BETWEEN LAREDO AND DEL RIO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED TO THE NE FROM
THE LOW TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. AT 850 MB...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 TO 60 KNOTS WAS NOTED FROM CRP NORTH WARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
850 MB DEW PTS WERE 16 C AT CRP AND AN 850 MB LOW WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MIDLAND AND DEL RIO. AT 300 MB...WINDS WERE STRONGLY
DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
DIVERGENCE OVER EAST TEXAS WILL INCREASE. A 120 KTS SPEED MAX
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND APPROACH SE TX
BETWEEN 12-18Z. THE SFC LOW NEAR LAREDO WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE TOWARD NE TX. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE TX
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
EAST OF THE SFC LOW IS TIGHT AND SFC WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH AND GUSTY THIS MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 01Z. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS KICK IN AND THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONS OVER TO THUNDER.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
HELICITY VALUES RANGE FROM 250 TO AS HIGH AS 400 M2/S2. LI VALUES
ARE -5 TO -7. CAPE VALUES ARE MODEST BETWEEN 800 AND 1400 J/KG AND
PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.90 INCHES. CIPS ANALOG DATA FOR EVENTS WITH
SIMILAR PARAMETERS SHOW A CORRELATION WITH OTHER HIGH IMPACT
EVENTS INCLUDING 01/30/1999...12/18/1995 AND 11/22/1992. THESE
PAST EVENTS ALL PRODUCED TORNADOES AND SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS. FCST SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SFC WITH STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. CAN`T
RULE OUT A THREAT FOR HAIL EITHER BUT IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE WIND RELATED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH
OF SE TX IN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING CELLS TODAY AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS. IF THIS OCCURS...SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH
OF SE TX IN SLIGHT/MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS SE TX. AT 2 AM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED
BETWEEN LAREDO AND DEL RIO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED TO THE NE FROM
THE LOW TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. AT 850 MB...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 TO 60 KNOTS WAS NOTED FROM CRP NORTH WARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
850 MB DEW PTS WERE 16 C AT CRP AND AN 850 MB LOW WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MIDLAND AND DEL RIO. AT 300 MB...WINDS WERE STRONGLY
DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
DIVERGENCE OVER EAST TEXAS WILL INCREASE. A 120 KTS SPEED MAX
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND APPROACH SE TX
BETWEEN 12-18Z. THE SFC LOW NEAR LAREDO WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE TOWARD NE TX. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE TX
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
EAST OF THE SFC LOW IS TIGHT AND SFC WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH AND GUSTY THIS MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 01Z. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS KICK IN AND THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONS OVER TO THUNDER.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
HELICITY VALUES RANGE FROM 250 TO AS HIGH AS 400 M2/S2. LI VALUES
ARE -5 TO -7. CAPE VALUES ARE MODEST BETWEEN 800 AND 1400 J/KG AND
PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.90 INCHES. CIPS ANALOG DATA FOR EVENTS WITH
SIMILAR PARAMETERS SHOW A CORRELATION WITH OTHER HIGH IMPACT
EVENTS INCLUDING 01/30/1999...12/18/1995 AND 11/22/1992. THESE
PAST EVENTS ALL PRODUCED TORNADOES AND SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS. FCST SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SFC WITH STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. CAN`T
RULE OUT A THREAT FOR HAIL EITHER BUT IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE WIND RELATED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH
OF SE TX IN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING CELLS TODAY AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS. IF THIS OCCURS...SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH
OF SE TX IN SLIGHT/MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
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srainhoutx
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Tornado Watch likely:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271144Z - 271415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND HIGHLY-SHEARED AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SLOWING COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX INTO SRN AR AND
LA. CURRENTLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED ATOP THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...OTHER SHOWERS WERE DEEPENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WEST OF HOUSTON INDICATING DEEPER/MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2
ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WHICH WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST BRIEF TORNADOES. THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE WITH CELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
CONFLUENCE BANDS.
LATER IN THE DAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP/CONSOLIDATE WITH THE
PRE-FRONTAL BANDS...WITH A MORE FOCUSED N-S ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS.
SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY STILL PRODUCE TORNADOES AS FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE MERIDIONAL AND FAVOR SOME RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
..JEWELL/HART.. 12/27/2015
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271144Z - 271415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND HIGHLY-SHEARED AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SLOWING COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX INTO SRN AR AND
LA. CURRENTLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED ATOP THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...OTHER SHOWERS WERE DEEPENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WEST OF HOUSTON INDICATING DEEPER/MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2
ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WHICH WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST BRIEF TORNADOES. THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE WITH CELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
CONFLUENCE BANDS.
LATER IN THE DAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP/CONSOLIDATE WITH THE
PRE-FRONTAL BANDS...WITH A MORE FOCUSED N-S ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS.
SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY STILL PRODUCE TORNADOES AS FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE MERIDIONAL AND FAVOR SOME RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
..JEWELL/HART.. 12/27/2015
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
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Relative Mean Velocity Loop links from NEXLAB College of Du Page
Fort Worth / Dallas http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... S-N0S-1-24
Fort Hood http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... K-N0S-1-24
San Antonio/Austin http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0S-1-24
Corpus Christi http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... P-N0S-1-24
Houston http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0S-1-24
Fort Worth / Dallas http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... S-N0S-1-24
Fort Hood http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... K-N0S-1-24
San Antonio/Austin http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0S-1-24
Corpus Christi http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... P-N0S-1-24
Houston http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0S-1-24
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srainhoutx
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Perhaps an early harbinger of things to come...Stay Weather Aware this morning folks. Things are ramping up early.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
TXZ176-196-198-271315-
MADISON TX-GRIMES TX-BRAZOS TX-
625 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRAZOS...NORTHWESTERN GRIMES AND
WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CST...
AT 623 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WELLBORN...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...KURTEN...WIXON VALLEY...KYLE FIELD AND
WELLBORN.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
TXZ176-196-198-271315-
MADISON TX-GRIMES TX-BRAZOS TX-
625 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRAZOS...NORTHWESTERN GRIMES AND
WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CST...
AT 623 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WELLBORN...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...KURTEN...WIXON VALLEY...KYLE FIELD AND
WELLBORN.
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
WALKER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
636 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER AND
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CST...
AT 635 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF LAKE CONROE DAM...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONROE...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...HUNTSVILLE...WILLIS...THE WOODLANDS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
SHENANDOAH...NEW WAVERLY...MONTGOMERY...LAKE CONROE DAM...HUNTSVILLE
STATE PARK AND CRABBS PRAIRIE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
WALKER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
636 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER AND
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CST...
AT 635 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF LAKE CONROE DAM...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONROE...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...HUNTSVILLE...WILLIS...THE WOODLANDS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
SHENANDOAH...NEW WAVERLY...MONTGOMERY...LAKE CONROE DAM...HUNTSVILLE
STATE PARK AND CRABBS PRAIRIE.
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srainhoutx
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SPC 13Z Outlook:
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srainhoutx
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Morning Briefing from Jeff:
***Potential severe weather outbreak today for SE TX***
***Damaging winds and tornadoes the main threat. A few strong tornadoes possible***
Forecast parameters for severe thunderstorms today have increased overnight with concerning tornado potential. SPC has category 3 out of 5 risk for nearly all of SE TX and 10% tornado probability which is equal to N TX yesterday afternoon. Surface low over SC TX this morning is helping to back low level winds which then veer quickly to the S at 1000-2000 ft and the WSW at 5000-8000 ft yielding strong directional and speed shear. Low level heleicity values are 200-400 already across the region and may increase more this morning. As upper level dynamics and cold pocket aloft with upper level system moves over the warm and moist warm sector thunderstorms will erupt. It will not take much of cell rotation with all the shear in place. CAPE values still on the lower end of the expectations today 800-1400 J/kg compared to an unbelievable 3042 J/kg at DFW at 600pm last evening.
It should be noted that similar parameters in place in the past have produced long tracked significant tornadoes over SE TX including the Nov 1992 outbreak. This is the highest severe weather threat the area has faced in a long time.
Additionally, potential for widespread wind damage is also moderate to high given 60kts southerly flow just above the surface. Storm downdraft will transport this wind energy to the surface easily. Winds to 60-70mph with storms will be possible leading to wind damage.
NOTE: storms are racing northward at nearly 55mph this morning which will greatly shorten warning lead times. Additionally, high moisture levels will result in heavy rainfall which can “hide” tornadoes.
Actions:
Have a tornado plan ready…know what you will do if a tornado warning is issued. Safest locations are on the lowest floors of a structure, interior room, away from windows. Cover with blankets and pillows to help shield from debris impact. Never try to outrun a tornado in a vehicle and never hide under a freeway overpass…tornado windows are accelerated through the opening of such overpasses. Find a well built sturdy structure or lie flat in a ditch and cover your head.
Day 1 (Sunday) Severe Weather Outlook: Tornado Watch Likely next few hours: [/i]
***Potential severe weather outbreak today for SE TX***
***Damaging winds and tornadoes the main threat. A few strong tornadoes possible***
Forecast parameters for severe thunderstorms today have increased overnight with concerning tornado potential. SPC has category 3 out of 5 risk for nearly all of SE TX and 10% tornado probability which is equal to N TX yesterday afternoon. Surface low over SC TX this morning is helping to back low level winds which then veer quickly to the S at 1000-2000 ft and the WSW at 5000-8000 ft yielding strong directional and speed shear. Low level heleicity values are 200-400 already across the region and may increase more this morning. As upper level dynamics and cold pocket aloft with upper level system moves over the warm and moist warm sector thunderstorms will erupt. It will not take much of cell rotation with all the shear in place. CAPE values still on the lower end of the expectations today 800-1400 J/kg compared to an unbelievable 3042 J/kg at DFW at 600pm last evening.
It should be noted that similar parameters in place in the past have produced long tracked significant tornadoes over SE TX including the Nov 1992 outbreak. This is the highest severe weather threat the area has faced in a long time.
Additionally, potential for widespread wind damage is also moderate to high given 60kts southerly flow just above the surface. Storm downdraft will transport this wind energy to the surface easily. Winds to 60-70mph with storms will be possible leading to wind damage.
NOTE: storms are racing northward at nearly 55mph this morning which will greatly shorten warning lead times. Additionally, high moisture levels will result in heavy rainfall which can “hide” tornadoes.
Actions:
Have a tornado plan ready…know what you will do if a tornado warning is issued. Safest locations are on the lowest floors of a structure, interior room, away from windows. Cover with blankets and pillows to help shield from debris impact. Never try to outrun a tornado in a vehicle and never hide under a freeway overpass…tornado windows are accelerated through the opening of such overpasses. Find a well built sturdy structure or lie flat in a ditch and cover your head.
Day 1 (Sunday) Severe Weather Outlook: Tornado Watch Likely next few hours: [/i]
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srainhoutx
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Storms are rapidly increasing across SE Texas. Will be moving to Severe and Tornado Warned postings only mode from this point forward.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
749 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
TRINITY TX-WALKER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
749 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WALKER...CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CST...
AT 749 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WILLIS...MOVING NORTH AT 65 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN CONROE...HUNTSVILLE...WILLIS...TRINITY...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
NEW WAVERLY...RIVERSIDE...LAKE CONROE DAM AND HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
749 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
TRINITY TX-WALKER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
749 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WALKER...CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CST...
AT 749 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WILLIS...MOVING NORTH AT 65 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN CONROE...HUNTSVILLE...WILLIS...TRINITY...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
NEW WAVERLY...RIVERSIDE...LAKE CONROE DAM AND HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity