Cromagnum wrote:I never said a cat 5 was going to be in the gulf. How could anyone even interpret what i said that way? I just meant the stronger it is before hitting Mexico, the further it has to weaken before popping out of the east side. Maybe TS stuff on the east side and a pile of rain.
Pardon my drama, but is it possible the whole Houston metro may end up being cut off from the outside world due to flooded streets?
No
Then I guess it's just going to be one of those rainy days when it's a good idea to just stay home and watch football, huh?
Andrew wrote:Latest GFS would be worst case scenario for SE Texas and the Houston area in particular. Shows the remnants of Patricia hugging the coast and a large band of heavy rain sets-up and tracks over the region.
I Disagree. It shows the heaviest rain tracking to the north of the Houston area. We'll get rained on, I'm sure, but not to the extent that say, Lufkin, or points northeast will.
This is Harris County that receives 10+ inches of rain. Doesn't make a difference either way.
Cromagnum wrote:I never said a cat 5 was going to be in the gulf. How could anyone even interpret what i said that way? I just meant the stronger it is before hitting Mexico, the further it has to weaken before popping out of the east side. Maybe TS stuff on the east side and a pile of rain.
Pardon my drama, but is it possible the whole Houston metro may end up being cut off from the outside world due to flooded streets?
No
Then I guess it's just going to be one of those rainy days when it's a good idea to just stay home and watch football, huh?[/quote]
Exactly. I wouldn't underestimate the situation because it could be a serious one if a solution like the 00z GFS is showing verifies, but a 50 mile north or south shift in the track could mean a world of difference. It is a wait and see situation right now.
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Exactly. I wouldn't underestimate the situation because it could be a serious one if a solution like the 00z GFS is showing verifies, but a 50 mile north or south shift in the track could mean a world of difference. It is a wait and see situation right now.[/quote]
Thanks for the tip. You gonna stay home and watch football, too? Oh, remember, there'll be other runs of the GFS over the next few days. I'm sure they'll vary.
Patricia now the strongest Hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since Linda in 1997. Patricia is a very small bit very intense Hurricane. Josh is chasing Patricia. Scott747 is advising Josh and his chase team member as they head N tomorrow morning along the Coast to get as close to the center core of Patricia as possible. Safe intercept Josh!
Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230531
TCDEP5
HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.
A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening.
No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory.
This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory
for Patricia.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect
the area.
2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.
3rd RECON center pass suggests 881mb with winds at the surface probably near 200 MPH. Again Patricia is a very compact Hurricane, but by far the most powerful TC we have seen in the Western Hemisphere since Wilma. Latest guidance from all the 00Z models are trending toward higher rainfall totals along and South of the I-35 Corridor of Central Texas and across the Coastal Plain from S Texas to the Upper Texas Coast into SW Louisiana with winds near or slightly above gale force and heavy training convective storms Saturday night into early Monday.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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This is one wild weather weekend coming up. I've been monitoring Patricia and am amazed at how fast she went from TS to CAT 5 Hurricane. She may be a small storm but she is a record breaker!!!!
As far as rainfall, we all definitely need to be weather aware and prepared. This is what makes me so thankful for this board.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
..... And there it is History made overnight!!!!!!
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.
Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.
We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Early morning water vapor imagery showing the secondary shortwave diving S into the base of the trough over the Baja Peninsula. Mid and upper level moisture associated with Patricia is already moving toward our Region. Radar continues to show increasing showers across our Western zones moving NE as the Western trough begins to have a greater influence on our sensible weather. Expect a Coastal low to begin organizing late Saturday near Brownsville and meander up the Coast Sunday into Monday. To further complicate this complex pattern, a slow moving frontal boundary approaches Central Texas Sunday increasing rainfall chances dramatically. Still think there is a possibility of someone seeing rainfall totals exceeding 10 inches. What raises an eyebrow are indications that PW's may reach 2.5 inches. There also will be mesoscale features that we just cannot accurately 'predict' more than 6 to 8 hours out...if then. There will be a lot of information coming out the next couple of days and I encourage our folks to help out and post the factual information. Our weather community has a reputation of being the ' go to online weather community' when weather worries.arise. Thanks to you, our weather community we have a place we all can be proud of for earning the trust of those that follow our postings and information.
DAY 2 AND 3
TEXAS/CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT PROJECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON DAY 1 WILL LIKELY WORSEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF PATRICIA
INTERACT WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS AS WELL AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO HAVE MANY UNCERTAINTIES. THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE WARRANTED A FASTER TRANSITION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON SATURDAY TO THE DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 2...BUT
QUITE DISPERSIVE ON DAY 3...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST WITH THE
LOW...CANADIAN THE FASTEST...AND THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS. THE ENSEMBLES PROVIDE A MORE COMPLETE PICTURE
THOUGH...WITH THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS AND LOW PLOTS FOR THE GFS END
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITIES OF THE HIGH
QPF THRESHOLDS LOW TO MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AND THUS SUPPORTING
ONLY MINIMAL CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
DEPICTED BY THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION TO TIMING
CONCERNS WITH THE TRANSITION OF FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE LOW...SO IS THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO THE GULF AND REMAIN
THERE...THUS INHIBITING MORE NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS
HAPPENS...THE MORE NORTHERN AND DEEP LOW SOLUTIONS OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WILL NOT DO WELL. ALL THIS SAID...THE
FORECAST IS A COMPOSITE OF THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INCLUDING
THE GEFS/ECMWF/SREF MEMBERS...ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...ALBEIT WITH A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO
CONCERNS THAT THEIR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION ARE TOO FAR NORTH.
ALTHOUGH THE FINAL VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THE PEAK VALUES OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...ROUGHLY HALF...BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE AND SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE STILL WARRANTED DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONAL MOIST...DYNAMIC...AND POSSIBLY REPETITIVE ASPECTS.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Patricia…now a hurricane of unprecedented intensity…with sustained winds of 200mph and central pressure of 880mb (25.99 in)
A hurricane disaster of unimaginable portions heading for the resort areas of SW Mexico.
Overnight USAF mission found that Patricia has become the strongest hurricane ever recorded in both the eastern Pacific or Atlantic basin and is only 10mb weaker than the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded on earth (Super Typhoon Tip). The surface pressure is an astounding 880mb which would be normally found near 5,000 ft above the surface. Flight level wind of 192 kts (221mph) was recorded on the last outbound pass. SFMR data indicated surface wind speeds of 190-200mph and the intensity was set at 200mph. The 7,000ft eye temperature was 27C or 81F which may also be a record. The warm temperature in the center of the eye is due to the vast amounts of sinking air resulting in warming.
It appears Patricia is nearing its maximum intensity…likely to reach 205mph before landfall. Catastrophic damage will occur near and within 30 miles either side of where the eye crosses the coast with likely few structures if any surviving the impact. Tremendous wind energy will be delivered into the mountains inland from the coast with gust possibly as high as 220-230mph.
Potential for loss of life from direct wind impacts, storm surge, and rainfall flooding within the core of this hurricane is very high…both local residents and the now thousands of trapped tourists at many of the coastal resorts.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Beyond incredible and a historic day in the Atlantic and EPAC basins as CAT 5 Patricia has become the most intense hurricane on record with a pressure of 880MB or 25.99" surpassing Wilma's 2005 882MB. Air Force Recon has found winds of 200G230 MPH. Additional intense RI to continue until landfall with a forecast of max winds of 210G235 MPH. Prayers to those in the path of this extreme hurricane. Back home across SE TX heavy rains have begun across W and NW portions of SE TX however the significant event begins Saturday. I am expecting Flash Flood Watches to be issued for SE TX by late this afternoon. Some areas may see over a foot of rain by Monday evening. In addition, gale force winds, seas of 9-11ft, and tides of 4.5 feet above MLLW are possible along the Upper TX Coast as a surface low develops along the TX Coast and interacts with Patricia's energy. This is a weekend to be weather aware and we will do our best to keep everyone informed.
