February: Tracking Rain/Wintry Mix & Arctic Front

[snowman65]

The snow report, that I posted about, came from friends (students) at SHSU. It is now "not" snowing in New Waverly. I'm trying to figure out how to post a couple of pics....

My son is at SHSU and texted me last night saying it was lightly snowing...must have just been graupel. Said it wont even show up in pictures....lol

[djmike]

Reached a low of 30 here in Beaumont. Moisture moved out of the area before anything "exciting" could happen. So now we deal with what we've dealt with all winter long. A cold, gray, cloudy dreary day. Have a feeling this was our only closest chance this winter to seeing anything exciting for Southeast Texas (Beaumont/Houston region). Yes, I can now officially say, I am ready for spring! Bring it.

[nuby3]

I'm still watching the track of the low. There is moisture around, and it's cold outside. Maybe we only get to 40 and I get to see some sleet maybe in the morning. Maybe

[srainhoutx]

Parts of 183 in NW Austin is creating some travel issues this morning. Many accidents reported from the light freezing drizzle that has put a film of ice on the bridges and overpasses.

[redneckweather]

A whole bunch of bark and no bite down here in Southeast Texas. As of midnight last night when I went to bed I was still sitting at 33 and moisture was gone. I woke up this morning and it was 32. lol I saw that coming with how slow temps were dropping yesterday.

After reading over a few comments and seeing a little disappointment, we need to keep one thing in mind. We live in Southeast Texas and any type of frozen precip in this area is extremely RARE...no matter what forecasters or models are spitting out. Case in point. It just flat out does not get cold enough down here for frozen precip 99.99999% of the time. I've lived in this house where I currently live for almost 15 years and have never seen the ground white. I cant wait till we get scorching hot with a chance of afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms. Now that's the good stuff!

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Main upper level storm to cross TX tonight/Wednesday.

Freezing line at 700am this morning extended from Columbus to Waller to Conroe to Cleveland with Tomball and IAH at 33. Light freezing drizzle has been observed overnight/this morning at both College Station and Huntsville and both the wind sensors at Caldwell and Crockett are calm suggesting ice has accumulated on some elevated surfaces. TXDOT roadway temperatures are running 34-36 degrees on elevated bridges which has saved much of the area from any ice formation on those surfaces…appears the warm weather on Sunday helped with that aspect even for locations which have now been below freezing for many hours. Light drizzle and mist should end this morning and temperatures will gradually rise above freezing across the entire area by 900-1000am. Saturated layer below 800mb will keep low level stratus clouds locked in place all day along with haze and fog.

Main upper trough approaches and moves across N TX tonight. Warm layer sampled in the CLL special sounding launch yesterday evening will begin to cool overnight especially in the College Station to Huntsville corridor as the cold pocket aloft moves over N TX. Forecast models are fairly impressive in their development of banded heavy snowfall over N TX tonight with just enough instability to likely generate a few lightning strikes. Could see periods of heavy snow is mesoscale bands over N and NE TX tonight/Wednesday morning with accumulations of 2-5 inches.

Over SE TX the sounding profile looks too warm to support sleet or snow and the surface temperature will be at or above freezing for all of the area overnight with no threat of freezing rain. While the profile does not support snow production from a high altitude, as was seen yesterday evening in Huntsville snow can be generated in the sub freezing layer just above the surface. Still think that any snow potential for tonight is very low across the region.

Lift will increase tonight and expect light ran and drizzle to develop across the region again and last into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will once again be on the light side averaging less than .25 of an inch. Highs today will struggle to reach the 40’s and likely remain in the 40’s on Wednesday.

Slight warming onsets Thursday with highs breaking 50 before another strong cold front surges across the region Thursday night. Colder again on Friday with highs in the 40’s.

Next upper level storm system begins to dig into the SW US over the weekend with returning southerly winds overrunning the surface cold dome. Current model guidance has backed down on the rain chances over the weekend and generally warm surface temperatures toward 70 by Sunday as warm air advection becomes established.

[Heat Miser]

Seen the ground white a few times. We moved to the Houston area in 73. Believe it snowed a few times that year and it was a few inches. Believe in 81 it snowed and stuck. in 1989 we had powdery snow that was on the ground followed by bitter cold. 2004 had the miracle Christmas eve snow and it snowed over 3 inches in the Friendswood area and got progressively harder further south, and it stuck for a while, some patches lasting until afternoon Christmas. 2008 had a somewhat surprising snow event that gave us a few inches, quite a lot in the Deer Park Channelview area. Believe 2009 had the earliest snowfall recorded, and it was on the ground at least a few hours. But, it's still very rare in this area. We're usually faced with the scenario we just had. This is a subtropical climate, so chances of seeing snow, and snow that sticks, is something we can't expect to happen too often.
But, if wxman jumps on board, that's when I start to believe.

[jasons2k]

Hehe -- Harold Taft used to say (somewhat in jest) "Never forecast snow in Texas until you see it falling outside your window."

[srainhoutx]

Not much in the way of a warm-up today. Temperatures are stuck in the mid 30's to low 40's. The12Z guidance took away the warming trend expected this weekend as well. I see that freezing rain/drizzle with some potential of a snow flake over two has been introduced into the forecast tonight and again Friday across our Northern Zones and Central Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 300am to 900am Wednesday for snow/sleet for Trinity, Houston and Madison Counties.

Upper level trough will move across the region tonight and early Wednesday with warm layer aloft gradually cooling to below freezing. Strong lift will come to bear across the region late tonight generating light rain and drizzle over much of the area. High resolution forecast models show a band of slightly heavier banded precipitation over our northern counties Wednesday morning. Temperatures in the “snow growth” level will be near or falling to below freezing near/at the time of maximum lift which supports a change of light rain to light sleet/light snow.

Most favored area for a mix of winter precipitation of rain/sleet/snow or change to sleet and snow will be from Madisonville to Crockett to Trinity. Surface temperatures are expected to range from 32-34 across this region Wednesday morning suggesting much of what falls will melt on contact with the ground. However any higher sleet/snow rates in the banded precipitation may result in a quick ½ to 1 inch of accumulation on rooftops, grassy areas, and elevated objects.

Further south from College Station to Huntsville to Livingston rain may mix with sleet and snow, but do not expect a full changeover given a less favorable freezing profile aloft.

Metro Houston area should remain all rain, but cannot rule out a sleet pellet or snow grain mixing with the rain. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 30’s resulting in any frozen precipitation melting on contact with the ground.

Thursday looks by far the best day of the week…and it will be far from great with partly cloudy skies and continued cold temperatures. Another arctic front blasts through the area Thursday night with cold air advection in place on Friday resulting in another cold day with increasing clouds and highs likely in the 40’s. Models have been trending colder behind this front and yet again another storm system will approach from the SW US. Will keep all precipitation liquid for now in the Friday night/Saturday time period and watch temperatures trends very closely over the next 48 hours. Could see freezing/frozen precipitation over parts of C TX/N TX yet again Friday into Saturday and freezing temperatures over portions of SE TX Friday night and Saturday morning. Precipitation chances at the moment during the critical temperature period look to only be in the 20-30% range.

[skidog40]

I got this feeling that it will snow

[Andrew]

Hrrr for tonight:

[Ptarmigan]

I got this feeling that it will snow

Like to see snow.

[Heat Miser]

I got this feeling that it will snow

Close but no cigar.

[Katdaddy]

Its a cold and wet morning with temps in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s across SE TX. The light rain moves E by noon and clearing skies this afternoon. Highs will remain in the 50s for the rest of the week with mostly sunny skies. Rain and clouds on the way for the weekend with highs reaching the 70s by Sunday. NTX change over to sleet and snow beginning currently which will likely lead to several inches of snow for Dallas-Ft Worth and across NE TX this morning.

[srainhoutx]

The core of the upper low is moving a bit further S than expected. There may be a quick burst of sleet and perhaps a snow flake or two across College Station to Huntsville and on E into the Lake Livingston area. Sleet reported in Bastrop.

[srainhoutx]

Rain/sleet mix reported in Brazos County.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Rain starting to mix with sleet over Madison, Houston, and Brazos Counties.

Radar shows a strong upper level storm system centered over N TX with strong radar returns along the I-35 corridor from south of Dallas to west of Waco. Surface observations indicate higher reflectivity band is producing a mixture of moderate to heavy snow/sleet with some accumulation. Extrapolation of this band marking the onset of stronger mid level cooling is expected to graze our northern counties over the next few hours…especially Houston County. Ongoing light rain/drizzle will likely mix with or change to sleet/snow from Madisonville to Crockett to Trinity over the next few hours. Surface temperatures are in the 33-35 range over these areas, so most of what falls will melt on contact with the ground. Any quick heavy sleet/snow could produce a fast slushy inch of accumulation on elevated surfaces such as rooftops, vehicles, and grassy areas.

Satellite images show rapid clearing advancing NE from SW TX and expected nearly all precipitation to end by late morning/early afternoon following be decreasing clouds from SW to NE across the region. Temperatures will quickly rebound in areas on sun into the low to mid 50’s. NW winds will increase this afternoon as a Gulf of Mexico surface low deepens and moves toward the central Gulf coast.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
833 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION UNTIL 1 PM CST...

.AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL
MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MADISONVILLE TO CORRIGAN THROUGH MIDDAY.

HOUSTON-MADISON-TRINITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...GROVETON...MADISONVILLE...
TRINITY
833 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY

* LOCATIONS...MADISON...HOUSTON...AND TRINITY COUNTIES.

* IMPACT...POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES
PRODUCED BY MINOR SLEET OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET MAY
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[srainhoutx]

Light snow/sleet mix reported across the Northern portions of SE Texas at this time. No accumulation.