September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[djjordan]

Gotten some pretty good rains at my house thus far this evening. Looks to be a fairly wet night here in SE Texas.

[Andrew]

For those of you in central Texas look out for the NAM:

[Ptarmigan]

Reminder: Mid October 1994 had a similar setup with a pacific tc and front combo. This one also adds gulf moisture indirectly from invest 95l. It's nighttime now and lots of rain still flowing off gulf.

The October 1994 flood is believed to dump as much as 37 inches of rain in 6 hours! This is based on runoff data. It happened because of slow moving cold front, warm front, remnant of East Pacific Hurricane Rosa and Gulf of Mexico Moisture. A setup for massive flooding. The rains fell mostly at night.

The Flood of October 1994 Revisited
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/1900hu ... -revisited

Not saying we could see another October 1994 Flood Event this weekend. This weekend should be very wet.

[djjordan]

Getting more concerned of a flood threat here in SE Texas. Got to keep a close eye on the radar and trends.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE SURGE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES NOW WITH FREQUENT
SHOWERS. GPS IPWV OF 2.4 ALREADY PRESENT AT ANGLETON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS EVEN RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT THAT SPEED CONVERGENCE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD
FOCUS THE MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL COUNTIES TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR
THE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE TROUBLE FALLING MUCH WITH THE RAIN/CLOUDS. HAVE NUDGED UP
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL. LATEST 00Z NAM
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE EXPECTATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH THEN
SHIFTING NORTH AS COLD FRONT NEARS WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS...K
INDEX OF 36-38 AND CAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED AND STORMS MOVING NORTH SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP IT
WIDESPREAD BUT NOT TOO HEAVY IF THEY KEEP MOVING THEN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT STEERING WINDS FAVOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT AND
CLUSTERING OF STORMS. 45

[Andrew]

One point of concern (and is currently going on North of Dallas) is the possibility of a MCS or MCV setup. I feel like models may be picking up on the possibility of this happening in central Texas tomorrow evening/night. That could really cause issues.

[Rip76]

Cause issues for Central Texas, or down in our area?

Looks like DFW has been getting hammered

[srainhoutx]

The ingredients for a Heavy Rainfall Event continue to come together across the Lone Star State today into. Saturday. The WPC as outlined portions of West Central Texas with a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with a Slight Risk for portions of Central/SE/E Texas today extending into most of SE Texas/SW Louisiana on Saturday. The GFS/Euro are a bit quicker to dry us out during the afternoon on Saturday while the NAM/SREF/HRRR short term meso guidance are slower with the frontal boundary and extend the heavy rainfall threat into Sunday. Flash Flood Watches have been hoisted along and N of the I-35 Corridor for Central Texas and Flash Flood Watches may be required further SE into SE//E Texas later this morning and into Louisiana as well. Training storms with 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as a slow moving frontal boundary sags S and a Coastal Low develops along the Lower Texas Coast and moves NE. The remnants of Manuel in the mid levels combined with deep tropical moisture streaming inland from the Gulf will provide a good lifting mechanism as well as good dynamics from the sagging slow moving trough appear to be the ingredients needed to produce 3-5 inches of rain with some isolated 6-7 inch amounts and possibly higher across portions of S Central/Central/SE/E Texas and SW Louisiana. Those with Friday evening travel plans need to monitor weather conditions closely in this complex and comlicated Heavy Rainfall potential. Stay Tuned.

[Katdaddy]

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS PERSIST AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH AND THEN AREA WIDE TONIGHT...AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED. ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST...AND WATER MAY APPROACH THE LOWEST AND MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
BEACHFRONT ROADS RIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE TODAY. LARGER SURF AND
STRONGER RIP CURRENTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY MORNING AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE COAST. FOR THIS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENT...RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE THE BEST CELL TRAINING
SETS UP...AND SOME AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TIDES WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AT
BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS. AT THESE LEVELS...WATER MAY APPROACH THE LOWEST
AND MOST SUSCEPTIBLE BEACHFRONT ROADS RIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY
EVENING. LARGER SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

[txflagwaver]

Thunder woke me up...Checked KHOU Radar...nothing.

Checked here http://www.my-cast.com/#77565,+TX and lots of rain in my area.

Why so different?

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Classic flash flood set up starting to unfold over TX this morning.

A slow moving frontal boundary will combine with mid and high level moisture from the remains of eastern Pacific Hurricane Manuel and deepen Gulf moisture to produce widespread rainfall today-Saturday. Heavy rainfall is already ongoing from the Big Bend area into NC TX where amounts of 1-3 inches have fallen overnight (isolated totals up to 5 inches). Numerous fast moving showers currently are racing northward across SE TX dropping brief heavy rainfall.

Short term model guidance is coming into better agreement that the frontal boundary will slowly move into the region this afternoon with widespread and organized thunderstorms producing torrential rainfall. Storm motions will gradually slow and training bands are looking fairly likely as the boundary slows. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches look likely with isolated totals of 6-8 inches. Given the fully saturated air column and PWS above 2.3 inches (+2SD) hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible. While the ground is dry, rainfall amounts (especially on the short term) will likely generate run-off and rises on area bayous, creeks, and rivers. Bigger concern is in urban areas where high short term rainfall rates will overwhelm drainage systems and allow for ponding on streets and in low lying areas.

Front sags to the coast and offshore on Saturday, but it is unclear is dry air really makes it into the region. The models have been trying to hold back some of the upper trough and stall the front near the coast or just offshore which could be close enough to keep rainfall going into early next week. Additionally, non-tropical surface low pressure may attempt to develop along the front over the Gulf waters and its placement and track could push moisture back toward the coast early next week.

Last item is tides…and they continue to run above normal along the coast due to long ESE fetch and current lunar cycle. Total water levels during high tide have been reaching around 2.0-2.5 ft and there has been some minor coastal flooding across SW LA and near the coastal bend with the swells and tidal pile up. Along the upper TX coast, there has been extra water on the beaches, but no coastal flooding. Looks like tides will max out over the weekend around 2.5-3.0 ft. Could be some minor flooding at times of high tide on the Gulf facing beaches. Tides in Clear Lake, Galveston Bay, and Matagorda Bay will be averaging 2.0-2.5 ft and this could have an impact on rainfall run-off.

[jasons2k]

I can't remember the last time I saw something like this come to fruition. Gosh, we could use the rain

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wet tailgates in Aggieland and Austin tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
834 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN KINNEY COUNTY...
VAL VERDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

* AT 832 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAUGHLIN AFB...OR
ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF DEL RIO...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMANDA.

[srainhoutx]

High Resolution visible satellite imagery suggests highly sheared 95L surface circulation has turned to the NW and is currently about 90 miles E of Tampico heading generally toward La Pesca. There are some indications that a more northerly track will develop along the NE Mexico Gulf Coast and bring that surface low near Brownsville sometime later tonight. While it is unlikely that we see development from this disturbance, it does add one more ingredient to the Heavy Rainfall potential and that wave of low pressure may end up somewhere offshore of Corpus Christi moving NE as the frontal boundary nears the Coast.

[wxman57]

I think we can forget about 95L developing into a TC. Instead, I think it will merge with the frontal boundary along the lower TX coast tomorrow then that frontal low/wave will track along the coast very slowly to just SE of Galveston by Monday. That means rain through Monday for us, possibly quite a lot. Sky should finally clear on Tuesday as the low moves east to southeast Louisiana.

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/20/13 1453Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1432Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...MISSOURI...
LOCATION...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN EVENT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUED SLOWLY SLIDING E BUT WAS
BEING REINFORCED BY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROF AMPLIFYING SE TOWARDS ND.
OVERALL TROF AXIS THEN HUNG BACK SW TO SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE NOW
SLOWLY SLIDING OUT OF NM. OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON BAROCLINIC LEAF TYPE SIGNATURE WHICH INDICATES
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX.
.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
ALONG AN AXIS FROM MCLENNAN COUNTY NEAR THE VIC OF ACT EXTENDING NE
TOWARDS BOWIE COUNTY. IR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE VIC OF ACT WITH MERGING AND TRAINING
DOWNSTREAM ALONG THIS AXIS AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THIS
PARTICULAR AXIS LIKELY RUNNING AT 1.0-2.0"/HR. 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER
THE AREA WERE INDICATING MODEST WAA WITH VERY SATURATED PROFILES AS
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE ROUGHLY RUNNING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TO CONTINUE OVER
THE ARKLATEX REGION AND EXTENDING NE TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BELIEVE
LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS OF
2.0-4.0" POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG 85H LLJ AND MOISTURE AXIS. SEE VERY LITTLE REASON
FOR LLJ AXIS TO CHANGE MUCH ON THE SHORT TERM AND WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM TROF. THIS VERY
SLOW MOVING PATTERN OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT AND MERGING
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NE TX WITH DOWNSTREAM
TRAINING TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX AND S AR/NW LA.

[Kludge]

I think we can forget about 95L developing into a TC.

You can be 99.9999% sure that I'll forget about it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wet tailgates in Aggieland and Austin tomorrow.

I think between the humiliation (I was there), losing to a Ole Miss team Texas beat by 5 touchdowns last year in Oxford by 3 touchdowns, with not a hint of offense, defense and special teams, the fact Mack Brown hasn't beaten Coach Snyder in a decade, and the rain, DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium will be half empty tomorrow.

BTW, the DKR part- Royal isn't dead. It was just Texas Memorial Stadium when I was a student, each passageway to the stands in the student section had plaques with the names of UT alum who died in World War One, and the whole DKR thing ruins the name of a stadium that is a memorial to war dead.

Now, I'd get wet if I was an Aggie to see SMU get slaughtered. Any team that can come within a TD of beating Alabama will kill a mid-major team at home the week after a tough loss.

Last night's Euro is about 2.5 inches IMBY. I want more, but I'd live with that. Euro ends rain before kickoff for UT, only 0.07 inches for CLL after 7 pm for the SMU game.

Now I really gotta leave for the dentist... Already spent the $600, another Navy filling from 1982 gone bad...

Ags broke my heart last week. 1-2 plays from taking down Saban two straight years. Alas, I'll settle for 11-1 and taking the Swamp Donkeys down in Baton Rouge in late November.

[ticka1]

what timeframe do ya'll think the heavy rains will start?

[srainhoutx]

what timeframe do ya'll think the heavy rains will start?

Hopefully for Houston after rush hour.