July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[tireman4]

Claudette, Katdaddy? LOL

[ticka1]

Claudette, Katdaddy? LOL

Katdaddy it is Chantal and I think he hadn't had his morning coffee or workout? LOL

[TexasBreeze]

The shower was a quick mover! Better than nothing!:)

[jasons2k]

Tiny shower today dropped another .04" - I'm up to .69" for July now. It's a slow improvement but I could really use an nice 1"+ soaker to really water everything good. I hope this next hot/dry spell is short and doesn't drag on for extra days like the last one - we'll see...if the NWS's definition of "LATER IN THE WEEKEND" = this SUNDAY and not Thursday or Friday of next week, that's doable.

[Texas Pirate]

Houston NWS Disco:
Yay rain...
and a cool front?

MODELS STILL HINTING AT BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FRI EVNG/SAT. IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE WE`LL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THAT
BOUNDARY & THE SEABREEZE - ESP FRI EVNG/NIGHT AFTER HIGHS PEAK
NEAR 100.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS suggests some increased moisture by the weekend and a mid/upper low moving W across the Gulf. That should pull some deeper tropical moisture further N from the Caribbean bringing increased rain chances along that stalled frontal boundary draped across the Gulf Coast into next week. We will see.

[txflagwaver]

Funnel clouds?


http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weath ... cmpid=hpbn

[SusieinLP]

Some nice dark clouds forming overhead Most likely my yard won't get any rain but someone north of here may get a nice shower later in the day.

[niner21]

Not sure about rain but it is hot as hell outside in Montgomery. Good grief!!

[Texas Pirate]

Well...lets knock on wood - rain will be more prevalent (and actually produce)

Houston NWS disco:

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS & ECMWF STILL BACKDOOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN & EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE FRI & SAT. THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF
SHRA/TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FRI EVNG AFTER PEAK HEATING. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND SHOULD TEMPORALLY MAKE FOR COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS NE/NRN PARTS OF THE REGION FOR THE 1ST PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY THAT`LL BE POSITIONED OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BE UNDERCUT BY A WWD MOVING UPPER LOW (NOW NEAR FLORIDA STRAITS)
AND INTO THE TX COAST LATE SAT OR SUNDAY. WHILE WE`LL TAKE ANY
RAIN WE CAN GET...I`M STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PW`S NEARBY
WHICH ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY ARE TODAY. ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE SOME MORE FAVORABLE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE MIGHT BE
AVAILABLE WITH A 2ND UPPER LOW PENCILED IN FOR DAYS 7-10. KNOCK
ON WOOD. 47

[Ptarmigan]

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Turns Positive
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... s.html?m=1

The PDO is a big factor for rainfall. A warm PDO is more favorable for wetter years in Texas, while cool PDO is more likely to see droughts. The reason we are dry is that the PDO is in a cool phase. The 1990s was wet because of a warm PDO.

If the PDO goes warm, it would be good for Texas in the rainfall department.

[PaulEInHouston]

Article on the PDO indicates a short positive phase. How long do these phase changes typically last? Would be great if it brought higher rain chances...if nothing changes soon, I expect that local municipalities will be initiating/upgrading/tightening water restrictions in the area.

[Ptarmigan]

Article on the PDO indicates a short positive phase. How long do these phase changes typically last? Would be great if it brought higher rain chances...if nothing changes soon, I expect that local municipalities will be initiating/upgrading/tightening water restrictions in the area.

Hard to say if the warm phase is trending or not.

I have seen short term warm PDO like in late 2009 to early 2010 due to El Nino. There was a period of warm PDO from 2002 to 2007, which would explain why it was wetter that time.

[srainhoutx]

I believe we have been in a negative PDO regime for the past 19-20 months. While it is too soon to know how the recent trends will actually develop, it is a sign that perhaps there is a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We will see.

[weatherguy425]

There's some buzz about values dropping sharply, during June, after their brief positive spike in May.

Link to monthly values:
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Did indeed drop significantly after a brief positive spike.

[Ptarmigan]

I believe we have been in a negative PDO regime for the past 19-20 months. While it is too soon to know how the recent trends will actually develop, it is a sign that perhaps there is a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We will see.

Another thing I have noticed is that we have had no El Nino since 2010. The longest stretch without El Nino was from 1998 to 2002. We have not had a strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino since 1997-1998. There have been strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino during cool PDO, in 1918-1919. Even during the brief warm PDO of 2002 to 2007, there was no strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino. There were more El Ninos during that period: 2002-2003, 2004-2005, and 2006-2007. La Nina occurred in that period in 2005-2006.

[PaulEInHouston]

Very interesting reading and learning about these anomalies and how they collaboratively affect the weather and patterns. I know it sounds "strange" maybe to some, but the real "continuing" drought for Texas it appears really began right after Ike's landfall in '08. Does anyone think that Ike, a storm of such abnormal size and magnitude, may have had anything to do with where we are today drought/pattern-wise? Might make an interesting study from a climatological standpoint to be honest!

[jasons2k]

There is hope! I liked this tidbit about next week from today's AFD:

"THE "NORMAL" SE TX SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF OLD"

[jasons2k]

Ed, I'm hopeful too but I'm concerned the advancing sea breeze may undercut the unstable air ahead of them before they get here. Either that or they spit-out an outflow and then do the staggered develop/collapse/reform pattern that always seems to skip over me. We'll see...

[Rip76]

Complete comedy.