December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[Portastorm]

Well for those of us who want cold weather for Christmas ... the pattern looks to deliver the goods! Thanks for the info, srain!

[harpman]

Now, if we could only get overunning moisture with a southern storm track during that time.......

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Happy Pants!

Photo too large! Anyway, its Christmas Day fun in the Hill Country and potentially in SE Texas that evening.

[Ptarmigan]

Could be. I think the general idea that the very long range GFS and its ensembles starting 'sniffing' several days ago could very well be possible near Christmas. The Euro is trending toward a West Based -NAO/tanking AO and the EPO going negative and popping a +PNA. That is the recipe required to dislodge the cold that has been bottled up in Alaska/Western Canada the past couple of months. For the cold weather lovers, those are somewhat encouraging signs to see. A lot can change, but with the Holidays approaching we'll continue to monitor.

Let's hope for a cold Christmas and December.

I have seen freezes where the NAO and AO are positive, PNA is negative, but EPO is positive. The December 1983 and February 1989 freeze occurred in that pattern.

[cisa]

Are we talking cold and wet or cold and dry. I know it's a long way out, but putting it on my list to Santa.

[srainhoutx]

Are we talking cold and wet or cold and dry. I know it's a long way out, but putting it on my list to Santa.

Let's see if we can get they cold first. The wet may wait a week longer with the cold...if not colder. Nice stratospheric warming event unfolding as I type and the Euro/GFS and their ensembles have the MJO in phase or octant 1/2 near the 20th. Lang time for these events is about a week to ten days. That said for those looking forward to a very chilly pattern, the hemisphere and the signals are looking promising. More details as things get a bit closer. Something tells me the night crew and our Pro Mets will have a lot to offer in the days to come...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'll gladly take less rain this weekend if I can have a cold and wintry Christmas!

[srainhoutx]

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2012

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 14 2012 - 12Z SUN DEC 16 2012

...A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST IS A MATURE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN
SHOWERS ARE FALLING ALONG AND AROUND THIS BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LOCAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...AND SNOW WILL FALL IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE
SOUTHWEST HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS DUE TO THIS FRONT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THOUGH NOT
AS ROBUST...WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER LAND IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...GENERATING SHOWERS AND ALSO SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST SYSTEM PUSHES ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE BACK-EDGE OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST. MOST OF THE COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE BY SATURDAY EVENING.

ONCE AGAIN...ANOTHER FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WILL PRODUCE AT TIMES HEAVY SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN
THE CASCADES AND DOWN INTO THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN SHOWERS WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COAST.

MEANWHILE...ALL REMAINS QUIET AND STABLE IN THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION OF THIS WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND UP
INTO THE CAROLINAS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FANNING

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Cosgrove basically spells out a cold snap from Dec 22nd to January 1 with nearby threats of snow/ice, although he thinks Houston stays all rain on Christmas Eve, while areas to the north see Wintry Weather.

This is good for me because I'll be in Longview in NE Texas... hopeful for some sleet or snow.

[harpman]

Very quite in here today. That can not be good news.....

[sambucol]

Attention is on the tragedy in Connecticut.

[harpman]

Yes, you are correct. It just makes me sick that someone could do this.

[srainhoutx]

Exactly. Weather talk can wait for another day. My heart is very heavy for all those affected.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is certainly warmer for Christmas week. Yesterday's runs had lows below freezing with dew points around 13F. Quite a change on today's runs. Euro backed off on the cold, too. No guarantee the cold won't come, through. Don't trust the models when they swing 30 degrees for our temps on alternate runs. Here's what the latest GFS has for us on Christmas. Note that the temperature times are 6am and 6pm, so the highs will be a bit higher than indicated. Highs around 70-72 are indicted for Christmas Day with a low of 65deg or so.

[srainhoutx]

The HRRR has been rather insistent all day that a line of showers/isolated storms may slowly move SE across Texas. The 00Z NAM has flipped to a wet Sunday as well. It does appear the Pacific front will slow down and pull up stationary somewhere across SE TX. There are several short waves moving NE from Mexico and the EPAC as the trough axis and attending low pressure system ejects NE toward the Western Great Lakes Region.

[gocuse22]

GFS flip flop...showing a warmer christmas still...ahh..Highs in the 60's...

[srainhoutx]

Showers along a pre frontal trough are nearing the Bryan/College Station area. Just to the N and W near Austin a slowly moving Pacific Front should continue sagging SE before pulling up stationary across the area as a strong short wave rides NE from Mexico and increases rain chances later today. 1/2 inch rainfall with isolated 1-2 inch amounts under heavier storms are possible where training could develop as the front stalls. Showers/storms may linger into Sunday before the front finally moves offshore.

Clearing skies with slightly cooler temps should follow in the wake of the front. A return flow off the Gulf become established later on Tuesday as another in a series of upper air disturbances/trough moves into our Region mid week. This feature looks a bit stronger and should have some Canadian air with it making for colder temps later in the week as the progressive pattern continues. For those traveling to the East Coast for the Christmas Holidays, there is a potential for wintry weather as a strong upper low develops over the Great Lakes and a potential Coastal Noreaster develops off the Mid Atlantic on up to New England causing some potential travel troubles later next week. Those traveling out W should also see an active pattern with higher elevation snow and coastal rains across the Pacific into California on up the Coast into the Pacific NW.

More on the Christmas forecast nearer to home as we get a bit closer, but early indications are that the progressive roller coaster pattern will continue as the Southern jet stream remains active and cold Canadian air filters S behind each passing storm complex.

[wxman57]

Latest GFS forecast for Christmas has return flow starting Christmas Eve morning with a high in the 70s. Low in the mid 60s and high in the low-mid 70s for Christmas Day with rain likely. Front moves through Christmas night cooling things down a bit.

[TexasBreeze]

Patterns are set no big changes no arctic outbreaks this year!

[texoz]

Little to no rain in Central Texas yesterday. Austin got zilch.

50 days with no rain, and about 1/10th inch of rain in last 60 days.