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Just got back into my office. I must say what a difference in appearance in the past 12 hours.

The 5th center pass sure appears like a 305 degree heading to me. We'll see what the official Advisory suggests.

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.2N 80.95W
Splash Time: 17:08Z
996mb

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 17:05:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°12'N 80°56'W (16.2N 80.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 217 miles (349 km) to the S (172°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,405m (4,610ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 200° at 41kts (From the SSW at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,567m (5,141ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,467m (4,813ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:47:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:15:00Z
Radar Signature: Good

While the NAM or UKmet are not really very reliable models, in the past few hours, both have changed.
NAM suggest it will feel the weakness of the trough in the Gulf once it passes the Yucatan, pulling it Northward, while the UKmet starts making a northerly turn a few miles off the Mexican coast before making second landfall.
Will see if these trends continue.



EDIT TO ADD: Also, if you notice, since the NAM model came out this morning, Ernesto has been somewhat following its path than the others - it is moving WNW to NW at the moment...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...


Note: Image barrowed from Phil (a Pro Met posting @ Amwx)...

For what it's worth the 12Z Euro was a tad N of Chetumal, MX and a touch stronger than the 00Z run, albeit weaker than what we are seeing today in real time.

I read on another forum that Ernie has taken a more NW track in the last 6-8 hours. If that's the case and it continues, would that put it in the GOM? There was also mention of the NAM turning it northward once in the BOC. I haven't been following this one much over the weekend because I thought it was a done deal it would no longer turn north or enter the GOM.

sambucol wrote:I read on another forum that Ernie has taken a more NW track in the last 6-8 hours. If that's the case and it continues, would that put it in the GOM? There was also mention of the NAM turning it northward once in the BOC. I haven't been following this one much over the weekend because I thought it was a done deal it would no longer turn north or enter the GOM.

The NAM is not a tropical model and therefore should be disregarded. That model is meant for short term meso guidance mainly, but it along with the Canadian are not used to forecast future tracks for tropical cyclones. That said it can be useful for various short range trend of the Continent for ridge placement, short waves and such.

That's good to know about the NAM. But will the NW movement of the storm put it in the GOM if it stays on a NW track?

sambucol wrote:That's good to know about the NAM. But will the NW movement of the storm put it in the GOM if it stays on a NW track?

So far, all available guidance suggest a turn back W beyond the first landfall. What we'll need to watch is future trends of guidance output and see if some further NW trends begin to show up. That said I would not be surprised to see some rapid intensification during the overnight hours with a possible CAT 2 or even stronger not out of the question, IMO. Ernesto has not behaved as many had thought...

srainhoutx wrote:

sambucol wrote:That's good to know about the NAM. But will the NW movement of the storm put it in the GOM if it stays on a NW track?

So far, all available guidance suggest a turn back W beyond the first landfall. What we'll need to watch is future trends of guidance output and see if some further NW trends begin to show up. That said I would not be surprised to see some rapid intensification during the overnight hours with a possible CAT 2 or even stronger not out of the question, IMO. Ernesto has not behaved as many had thought...

If I remember correctly, Ike didn't behave the way many thought he would when he was approaching the GOM. I guess I shouldn't have written off Ernie so quickly.

The NAM is not a tropical model and therefore should be disregarded. That model is meant for short term meso guidance mainly, but it along with the Canadian are not used to forecast future tracks for tropical cyclones. That said it can be useful for various short range trend of the Continent for ridge placement, short waves and such.

CALL OUT!!! Haha, no I'm kidding Steve! I only posted that image of the NAM and UKmet having a north turn because they weren't showing it before. I already knew they weren't tropical models. Just like to point out the change in them.
From the looks, the NW movement should continue for most of the day today, but after that, it will more than likely continue its West path as our boring ridge takes back over north of us, shoving Ernesto well south of us.

Belmer wrote:

The NAM is not a tropical model and therefore should be disregarded. That model is meant for short term meso guidance mainly, but it along with the Canadian are not used to forecast future tracks for tropical cyclones. That said it can be useful for various short range trend of the Continent for ridge placement, short waves and such.

CALL OUT!!! Haha, no I'm kidding Steve! I only posted that image of the NAM and UKmet having a north turn because they weren't showing it before. I already knew they weren't tropical models. Just like to point out the change in them.
From the looks, the NW movement should continue for most of the day today, but after that, it will more than likely continue its West path as our boring ridge takes back over north of us, shoving Ernesto well south of us.

LOL...it's being mentioned elsewhere across the Weather Board World... The 18Z Track & Intensity guidance is in:

ok, I have been watching the computer models this whole time and from this morning to this afternoon all of the models seem to have shifted to the North somewhat - this morning they looked like it would not even emerge back in the Bay of Campeche - this afternoon almost all of them cross it - thoughts?

I think if Ernesto because much stronger than the models forecast it could struggle its way north a bit more. We will just have to see how long this northern jog lasts

I think we can be safe to say an upper TX landfall is out of the question for those who might have still thoughts on it making it this far north. The high is getting pretty strong, which would allow Ernesto to go south of us.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

However, I wouldn't rule out a South Padre or Brownsville landfall which would possibly bring in a few coastal showers, along with higher tides. Should know more by tonight though.

Has the ridge moved away from Texas?

Ed Mahmoud wrote:WNW to NW wobble seems to have been replaced by a W to WNW path the last couple of frames, although with an poorly defined eye, who knows.

Morning plane is leaving, afternoon/evening plane 3 hours away, and even aircraft fixes will have little wobbles.

WV shows this pretty well

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Ernesto is starting to look pretty ill again.