Re: Tropical Storm Debby. Watches Issued For Louisiana
Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:56 pm
The coldest cloud tops appear as though they have temperatures -90ºF to -100ºF in or extremely near the center of circulation.
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Karen wrote:If this thing goes into Corpus what effect would the Houston/Galveston area receive?
Simply put the SS scale is for wind only and surge is not predicted by that scale. Residents need to look at the forecasted surge values and not the category when making their decisions. Given the current forecast track and large circulation a lot of water is going to be moved toward the upper TX coast and this is going to likely be a prolonged event (2-3 days). The beaches are going to take a hard hit if this track holds...reminds me a lot of Frances in 1998...only stronger.srainhoutx wrote:Jeff, I think it would be a good idea to update folks on the new surge~vs~SS scale information that was issued this year. If you have the time, that kind of input would valuable to those not familiar with the changes.jeff wrote:Would like to remind everyone not to focus on the center of the cone...as was not done so well this evening by some of the TV folks. DO NOT make those Ike and Rita mistakes again! A storm is not a point and the effects especially with this large of a system will be far reaching.
HGX area would be in the northern semi-ceircle or the "dirty side" of the system with strong onshore flow. Would expect at least TS winds near the coast and some pretty good water level rises (+5 feet would be likely). Of course the rain shield and bands will impact the entire upper coast and inland a good bit. Due to the very slow motion the effects will last for days not hours (Wed-Fri...maybe even into Saturday)cisa wrote:Karen wrote:If this thing goes into Corpus what effect would the Houston/Galveston area receive?
Good question. I would like a clarification as well. Thanks in advance guys.
Throw the GFS model out, it is not going to verify. Main focus now is toward the possible NW turn toward the end of the forecast period and how far west it gets before this begins to take place. I will stress again that this is not a point and the effects will be far reaching. A landfall on the middle or even lower TX coast will result in some hefty impacts on the upper TX coastBelmer wrote:Yeah, I'm just a little confused on what everything has been said recently. Mainly with the GFS model...
They have landfall around 144 hours (or Friday PM). They may be a little on the slower end of things as the EURO is faster. Effects will reach the coast well before the center due to the size...and a landfall down the coast will result in impacts on the upper coast well before landfall due to the track. Should start to feel effects by Wednesday and then we will be dealing with it for a while (days)sambucol wrote:When does the NHC expect landfall as of tonight? I'm wondering about how much time we have to make preps beforehand. Thanks.
Yea and the GFS will continue to be shown in the media. Some serious "tinkering" needs to be done to it after this.jeff wrote:Throw the GFS model out, it is not going to verify. Main focus now is toward the possible NW turn toward the end of the forecast period and how far west it gets before this begins to take place. I will stress again that this is not a point and the effects will be far reaching. A landfall on the middle or even lower TX coast will result in some hefty impacts on the upper TX coastBelmer wrote:Yeah, I'm just a little confused on what everything has been said recently. Mainly with the GFS model...
The 'experimental' model (FIM) that was posted a few days ago and I linked too is set to replace the GFS. Not sure when though.Andrew wrote:Yea and the GFS will continue to be shown in the media. Some serious "tinkering" needs to be done to it after this.jeff wrote:Throw the GFS model out, it is not going to verify. Main focus now is toward the possible NW turn toward the end of the forecast period and how far west it gets before this begins to take place. I will stress again that this is not a point and the effects will be far reaching. A landfall on the middle or even lower TX coast will result in some hefty impacts on the upper TX coastBelmer wrote:Yeah, I'm just a little confused on what everything has been said recently. Mainly with the GFS model...
The 'experimental' model (FIM) that was posted a few days ago and I linked too is set to replace the GFS. Not sure when though.[/quote]Andrew wrote:Yea and the GFS will continue to be shown in the media. Some serious "tinkering" needs to be done to it after this.jeff wrote:Throw the GFS model out, it is not going to verify. Main focus now is toward the possible NW turn toward the end of the forecast period and how far west it gets before this begins to take place. I will stress again that this is not a point and the effects will be far reaching. A landfall on the middle or even lower TX coast will result in some hefty impacts on the upper TX coastBelmer wrote:Yeah, I'm just a little confused on what everything has been said recently. Mainly with the GFS model...
Euro is usually considered the best model but others such as the cmc and GFS are good also. The GFS is having feedback issues but the cmc does send it to Florida which is interesting. Lets see if the Euro does the same.cisa wrote:What model seems to be most accurate? Any opinions?
Andrew wrote:Euro is usually considered the best model but others such as the cmc and GFS are good also. The GFS is having feedback issues but the cmc does send it to Florida which is interesting. Lets see if the Euro does the same.cisa wrote:What model seems to be most accurate? Any opinions?
Belmer wrote:Andrew wrote:Euro is usually considered the best model but others such as the cmc and GFS are good also. The GFS is having feedback issues but the cmc does send it to Florida which is interesting. Lets see if the Euro does the same.cisa wrote:What model seems to be most accurate? Any opinions?
When is the Euro expecting to come in? UKmet as well?