April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?

[redneckweather]

Big disappoint here on the north side near Lake Conroe. All we have gotten out of this so far is a sprinkle here and there...hardly enough to water the grass. I've held off for a few days on the watering but guess I got to break out the water houses.

[srainhoutx]

Update from NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/16/12 1437Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1415Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:0846Z/0838Z DMSP SSMIS: 1310Z
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTIVE WEDGE COMPLEX CONTINUES HANGING IN ALONG THE CENTRAL
TX GULF COAST...MESO CELL FROM THAT COMPLEX PUSHING THROUGH BRAZORIA
COUNTY...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL WAY BACK
CLOSE TO THE CO-
TX-NM BORDER...SWLY FLOW OVER CONCERN AREA CONTINUES AND THAT MEANS
CONVECTIVE WEDGE HANGING IN THERE AND BEING FUELED BY DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE. LATEST MAX GPS PW ALONG MID TX COAST JUST SOUTH OF KCRP WAS
CLOSE TO 2.0" AND THAT WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...12Z
KCRP SOUNDING HAD 1.8" VALE AND THAT RIGHT AT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS.
AND THAT ALONE WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN...BUT THEN
THERE ARE THE MESO JET PUSHING THRU CENTRAL TEXAS JUST AHEAD UP AN UPPER
LEVEL AND THAT FORCING EXTENDING ITS REACH TO NEAR THE HIGHEST MOISTURE.
ACTIVITY COULD GO ON FOR A SEVERAL MORE HRS WITH NO REAL KICKER TO
THE WEST.
CELL/COLD CLOUD TOP THAT CAME OUT OF THE COASTAL CONVECTIVE WEDGE NOW
SPREADING COLD TOP HEAVY THROUGH AREA CENTERED ON BRAZORIA COUNTY AND
RAIN RATE IN THE 1-1.5"/HR RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER RATES...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AS WITH THE SAN PATRICIO COUNTY
CELLS THAT ARE FEEDING ON EXISTING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1430-1800Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...NO KICKER...EXCESSIVE MOISTURE...BUT DIURNAL SHOULD SAY
WEAKEN...BUT IT IS NOT AND SAN PATRICIO AT THE EPICENTER OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT, EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT GREAT IN THE
IMMEDIATE VIC...IS PRETTY GOOD CLOSE BY IMPORTING HIGH MOISTURE JUST
OFF S COAST AND BRING IT INLAND TO THE MID TX COAST...SO HVY RAIN THAT
FALLS IS KIND OF REPLENISHED AND CAN CONTINUE MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

Another update from Jeff:

Stalled frontal boundary along HWY 35 from north of Port Aransas to Port Lavaca to Bay City to Angleton then offshore of Galveston Island continues to be the focus for near continuous thunderstorm formation and heavy training rainfall.



Favorable position of the upper level trough over W TX and continued feed of very moist high PWS air mass inland off the western Gulf of Mexico is resulting in very heavy rainfall in a band from just north of Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay to Galveston County. Extremely heavy rainfall has focused over San Patricio County this morning around Portland and Gregory where rainfall estimated over 8-12 inches has fallen (at the intersection of the frontal boundary and moist low level feed of untapped air over S TX).



With additional upstream energy moving through the upper through expect to continue to see thunderstorms develop and train ENE to E along the coastal counties and possibly the US 59 corridor through much of the day. Air mass remains very capable of producing rapid short term rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches in a hour. Where cell training develops flooding is likely with this kind of rainfall. Additionally, the duration of the event is starting to result in watershed responses along the coastal creeks and smaller scale rivers and some will likely rise to flood stage with continued slow moving excessive rainfall under training cells.



Additional rainfall of 1-3 inches across the coastal counties is likely with isolated totals upwards of 4-6 inches on top of what has already fallen. Would not be surprised to see a few storm totals since yesterday evening approach and exceed 10-12 inches along/near the Hwy 35 corridor.



Note:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued from Matagorda Bay southward to deep south TX as air mass in that region is becoming increasingly unstable ahead of southward sagging frontal boundary. Intersection of this boundary with strong low level inflow has produced a few severe and at time rotating tornadic cells this morning from north of Corpus to north of Brownsville….in fact the public reported a tornado over King Ranch earlier this morning.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Advisory for Brazoria, Jackson & Matagorda Counties

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Watch coming for primarily Coastal Counties shortly

[txflagwaver]

I don't doubt it...rain all the way from Corpus along the coast...

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1109 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXZ226-235>238-170000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0003.120416T1609Z-120417T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...PIERCE...TEXAS CITY...WHARTON
1109 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED 5 TO 7 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR HIGHWAY 35 THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO HELP KEEP ACTIVITY GOING IN
AND AROUND THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder what Thurday/Friday will be like as NWS forecasts rain on Friday from another cold front.

[srainhoutx]

Another NESDIS Update:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/16/12 1639Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1615Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1042Z DMSP SSMIS:1312Z
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...NOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE GETTING INTO THE ACT....

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...COLD PERSISTENT CLOUD TOPS THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SAN PATRICIO COUNTY HAS NUDGED EAST TO COAST OF ARANSAS COUNTY AND
WARMED WITH MOST LIKELY DECREASING RAIN. BIGGEST WEAKENING AFTER 16Z
WITH A LAG FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING. BUT NOW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE THE PROBLEM RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
CONVECTION THAT THAT HAS WEAKENED A BIT NORTH AND NE OF HOUSTON HAS SET
DOWN AN OUTFLOW CHAMBERS TO GALVESTON TO BRAZORIA COUNTY. AND BRAZORIA
HAS ALREADY HAD HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE MORNING. ANOTHER IMPULSE THAT
CAME OUT OF EARLIER SAN PATRICIO CONVECTION HAS THROWN A BOUNDARY TO THE
COAST BETWEEN MATAGORDA AND CLAHOUN/REFUGIO COUNTY AND ANYWHERE ALONG
THAT BOUNDARY/LINE MOISTURE CAN AND WILL CONCENTRATE AND POSSIBLY FOCUS
VERH HVY RAIN AND FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF BOUNDARY DOES NOT MOVE MUCH.
THEN THERE IS THE BOUNDARY FROM ARANSAS TO KLEBERG COUNTY THAT IS LOOKING
LIKE IT IS GOING NOWHERE FAST...EVEN DEVELOPING A BIT THAT CAN RESULT
IN 1-2 INCHES IN A 20-60 MINUTE TIME PERIOD...WHAT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALONG THE COAST AND VERY HIGH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT THAT
CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. ALL THIS CONTINUES TO BE ACTED
ON BY HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL TX TO NO
KICK THIS CONVECTION TO FAR EAST VERY QUICKLY BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ENOUGH FORCING TO VERY EFFICIENTLY USE THE DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE
TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EXISTING BOUNDARIES.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-1930Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...BOUNDARY AREAS EXISTING RIGHT NOW AND FUTURE ONES WILL
POOL HIGH CONTENT MOISTURE AND PRIMARILY BE ALONG THE COAST AWAY FROM
MAJOR TOWNS/CITIES...
BUT CLOSE TO A VERY EXTREME MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NOTHING TO KICK THIS ACTIVITY TO FAR EAST TO QUICKLY AND LAND/OCEAN BATTLE
COULD KEEP ACVTIVITY GOING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLINED CONCERN AREA IN GRAPHIC THAT WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.
.

[srainhoutx]

We'll need to keep an eye on new development in Karnes County, E of Pleasanton. Those cells could track further N of the HWY 59 Corridor extending heavier rainfall chances a bit N during the late afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Brazoria & Matagorda Counties

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND LOWER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181...

VALID 161706Z - 161830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181
CONTINUES.

GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COVERAGE FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTO SRN PART OF WW 181 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN EXTENT OF
THIS WATCH...SUPPORTING PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT...AND REASON NOT TO
CANCEL ANY COUNTIES YET FROM THIS WW.

TRENDS IN LATE MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST REGION SHOWED A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST INVOF
KCRP TO NRN JIM HOGG COUNTY IN DEEP S TX. ONGOING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS
ALONG AND N OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO EFFECTIVELY SHIFT THIS
BOUNDARY SWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 80S ARE
SUPPORTING MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT SUGGESTS MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS
REMAIN POSSIBLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRONG MIDLEVEL JET EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL AID IN SUSTAINING NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP S TX.

MEANWHILE...N OF THE COLD FRONT...MODERATE MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR UP TO 50 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE
OF SOME HAIL THREAT. THUS...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE NRN
EXTENT OF WW 181...EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN
STABILIZED BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.

..PETERS.. 04/16/2012


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We are going to see our 1-3 inches it looks like... things are inching north too.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXZ237-161815-
BRAZORIA TX-
1226 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRAZORIA...OR 4 MILES WEST OF
LAKE JACKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE JACKSON...ANGLETON...CLUTE...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...JONES
CREEK...DANBURY...HOLIDAY LAKES AND BAILEY'S PRAIRIE.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the following counties: Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Wharton, and Jackson



Stalled surface boundary continues to produce near continuous rainfall along the coast early this afternoon. Radar indicates rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches have fallen over portions of Jackson, Matagorda, and Brazoria Counties overnight and this morning and thunderstorms continue to develop and train over these counties. A few locations in southern Brazoria County are nearing 8 inches of rainfall. Additional rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely in the watch area this afternoon as storms develop and track over the same areas.



With grounds saturated run-off will be increasing with the threat for more widespread flooding. Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Brazoria and Matagorda Counties until 145pm.



Note:

Large HP supercell over San Patricio County has finally moved offshore after dropping 10-15 inches of rainfall over the Portland and Gregory areas this morning. San Patricio emergency manager reported more than 15.0 inches of total rainfall since 400am this morning 7 miles south of Bayside and this matches well with radar rainfall estimates. Severe flooding is in progress over eastern San Patricio County.

[Ptarmigan]

Update from Jeff:

NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the following counties: Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Wharton, and Jackson



Stalled surface boundary continues to produce near continuous rainfall along the coast early this afternoon. Radar indicates rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches have fallen over portions of Jackson, Matagorda, and Brazoria Counties overnight and this morning and thunderstorms continue to develop and train over these counties. A few locations in southern Brazoria County are nearing 8 inches of rainfall. Additional rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely in the watch area this afternoon as storms develop and track over the same areas.



With grounds saturated run-off will be increasing with the threat for more widespread flooding. Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Brazoria and Matagorda Counties until 145pm.



Note:

Large HP supercell over San Patricio County has finally moved offshore after dropping 10-15 inches of rainfall over the Portland and Gregory areas this morning. San Patricio emergency manager reported more than 15.0 inches of total rainfall since 400am this morning 7 miles south of Bayside and this matches well with radar rainfall estimates. Severe flooding is in progress over eastern San Patricio County.

Those areas are still in a severe drought still, so the rain is welcomed. Just not too much. Interesting to notice more severe thunderstorms in South Texas than here in Houston area despite the fact that they are closer to the Mexican desert than we are. I wonder about it.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
145 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXZ237-238-161930-
GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-
145 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON AND EAST CENTRAL
BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 142 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM DANBURY TO SAN LUIS PASS TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
QUINTANA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALVESTON...TEXAS CITY...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...HITCHCOCK...BAYOU
VISTA...JAMAICA BEACH AND LIVERPOOL.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Advisory for Brazoria, Galveston & Matagorda Counties

[srainhoutx]

Another update from NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/16/12 1938Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1915Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1526Z DMSP SSMIS:1312Z
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SOUTHERN CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHIFTING EAST AND DROPPING
SOUTH...NORTH BAND STILL PRODUCING MODERATE/OCCL HVY RAIN GALVESTON/E
BRAZORIA...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIT DIFFERENT SITUATION THAN LAST WEEK
WHEN A MCS IN THE GULF PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW THAT IGNITED CONVECTION ALONG
THE MID TX COAST. THAT NOT THE CASE AS OUTFLOW MID TX CONVECTION HAS
NUDGED EAST TO AND JUST OFF THE COAST AND SOUTH FURTHER INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS VIC OF KENEDY COUNTY. CELL CLUSTERS EXT S TX VIC OF HIDALGO FEEDING
IN AND HELPING TO MERGE AREAS AND KEEP THAT PART OF THE BAND GOING
WITH LOCAL HVY RAIN AS DEEP MOISTURE OF NEAR 1.8" POOLS IN THAT AREA.
KENEDY COUNTY GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HVY RAIN WITH FEEDER ACTION COMING
IN FROM SW AND HIDALGO COUNTY.
FURTHER NORTH...NORTHERN BAND LOSING SOME OF IT PUNCH...BUT RAIN OUT AT A
GOOD MODERATE TO OCCL HVY RATE. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE COAST. EASTERN BRAZORIA
INTO GALVESTON COUNTY GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HVY RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH
AS FURTHER SOUTH. NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ANY MCS OFFSHORE LIKE LAST
WEEK...SO NOTHING TO KEEP THIS CONVECTION ACTIVE FOR TOO MUCH LONGER
AND IN ANY CASE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE OR WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST
AND NE THROUGH LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTY.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1930-2230Z..MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...MOST ACTIVE AREA CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS VIC OF KENEDY COUNTY WITH MESO VORT IN IR VIC OF STARR/HIDALGO
THROWING CONVECTIVE CELLS INTO THE BOUNDARY FOR LOCAL HVY RAIN.
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO N WILLACY AROUND 2030-2130Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS ALONG WITH MESO SCALE VORT HELPS TO
RPODUCE ISOLATED SLOWL MOVING HVY RAIN STARR-HIDALGO TO WILLACY-S KENEDY
COUNTY DURING THE PERIOD.

[Rip76]

"SO NOTHING TO KEEP THIS CONVECTION ACTIVE FOR TOO MUCH LONGER
AND IN ANY CASE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE OR WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST
AND NE THROUGH LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTY."

So for the most part, this is about for the Houston/Gal. area?