March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[srainhoutx]

Another update from Jeff:

Strong winds continue over the area this afternoon.



Frequent wind gust at or above 40mph are being reported across the area including 44 at Victoria and 42 at Palacios with 38 at IAH. A wind gust to 69mph was reported at Victoria earlier today.



With radar showing a few developing showers over the area, strong winds aloft may be transported to the surface resulting some minor wind damage (downed tree limbs) and disruption of power. Currently over 9,000 residents across the Houston metro area are without power.



Strong winds will continue overnight ahead of a squall line due into the area toward sunrise.

[srainhoutx]

Hook echo in Val Verde County heading NE toward Sonora.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
306 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY...
VAL VERDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 302 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JUNO...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FLOUR MILLS.

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NERN
TEXAS...SERN OKLAHOMA...AND EXTREME WRN ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE NRN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL TX TO ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH TONIGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER
SCALE SYSTEM. AN EXTENSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS COMPRISED OF A 50-70KT LOW LEVEL JET TOPPED
BY AN 80-100KT MID/UPPER JET. PRONOUNCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIRECTED
ACROSS SW-NE ORIENTED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM NCNTRL TX INTO OK/KS
WAS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THAT WILL BE FUELED BY ABUNDANT WARM
SECTOR CAPE AS SAMPLED BY LATEST RAOBS FROM FWD AND DRT. CAPPING ON
THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO EXPLAINS LACK OF ANY TRUE WARM SECTOR STORMS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ONGOING INCREASE IN STORMS ROOTED ATOP
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW...ALONG THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/CAPROCK...WILL BE
QUITE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

ENTIRE ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST AND RESULT
IN WEAKENING CAP AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM DFW AREA SOUTH AND EAST. AS
COLD POOL DEPTH AND WLY COMPONENT OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW
INCREASE...EXPECT SEVERE LINEAR MCS TO SPREAD EAST WITH THE CHANCE
FOR BOTH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

...MO TO MN/ERN ND...
DIURNAL HEATING OF MOIST AIRMASS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A CORRIDOR OF
GREATER MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM MO NORTH ACROSS IA
TO ERN ND AND MN. LARGE SCALE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF
EXTENSIVE JET ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH MAY AID
LIFT AND SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO THIS
EVENING. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT SHOULD
SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS WITH A THREAT
FOR HAIL...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

..CARBIN.. 03/19/2012

[MontgomeryCoWx]

First tornado warning of the day out in nowheresville South of Sonora. I don't think anyone lives there.

You'd be correct.... and the temp in Sonora.... 57 degrees.

[srainhoutx]

And the issue is the first TOR warning came from a cell further SW outside of the Moderate Risk area which is about where the 09Z SREF initiated super cell activity that was posted earlier today concerning the Del Rio/Laredo/San Antonio area may be the place to watch. We'll see how the rest of the afternoon and evening goes.

[tireman4]

From the San Antonio/Austin NWS...

We are now entering severe weather operations. While we strive to respond as quickly as possible to your posts, please understand our first priority is data analysis and issuing warnings. That said, please post your reports and pictures! If you see a tornado, first make sure first you are safe, then contact your local police or sheriff, then submit a storm report using our webpage interface: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/Sub ... p?site=EWX

Thanks and stay vigilant and safe this afternoon through tomorrow morning.

[Portastorm]

And the issue is the first TOR warning came from a cell further SW outside of the Moderate Risk area which is about where the 09Z SREF initiated super cell activity that was posted earlier today concerning the Del Rio/Laredo/San Antonio area may be the place to watch. We'll see how the rest of the afternoon and evening goes.

Exactly! That was also my main thought. And it increases my concern for the Austin metro area as well.

[srainhoutx]

HGX HWO Update is out...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-201200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
324 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ON TUESDAY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 20
TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH INLAND. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND ANY ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE APPROACHING A COLLEGE STATION
TO EDNA LINE BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM. ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SQUALL LINE MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED AROUND THE
HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR AROUND BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...THEN INTO EASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT. THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED
3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS OCCUR. LOCATIONS GENERALLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE SITUATED IN
THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.

RAINFALL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD. THOUGH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME...WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE.

IN ADDITION TO OUR LOCAL RAINFALL...CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO MIDWEEK SO RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AND SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Afternoon Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ON TUESDAY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH)...AND
SIMILAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A LOT OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. SOME RAPIDLY NORTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS STRONG WIND
FIELD IS HELPING TO FUEL THE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST. OUR AREA COULD SEE INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (SOME COULD BE STRONG)...BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS
FOR OUR AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CLOSE BEHIND. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND/OR TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING
TO PUMP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OR GREATER WHERE ANY
TRAINING OF STORMS OCCURS. THE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AND THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. IT IS LIKELY
THAT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AREA WILL RECEIVE 5 OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THIS EVENT COMES TO AN END.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONCERN AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL GET DUE TO THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTRAL
TEXAS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY STALLS. IF THE SYSTEM MEANDERS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MIGHT BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...AND
THIS COULD RESULT IN GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
ALSO...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. IF THIS OCCURS...ANY RAINS FALLING OVER ALREADY SOAKED LOCATIONS
COULD AGGRAVATE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM.

DRIER WEATHER WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARMISH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IS STILL EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

[Ptarmigan]

Another update from Jeff:

Strong winds continue over the area this afternoon.



Frequent wind gust at or above 40mph are being reported across the area including 44 at Victoria and 42 at Palacios with 38 at IAH. A wind gust to 69mph was reported at Victoria earlier today.



With radar showing a few developing showers over the area, strong winds aloft may be transported to the surface resulting some minor wind damage (downed tree limbs) and disruption of power. Currently over 9,000 residents across the Houston metro area are without power.



Strong winds will continue overnight ahead of a squall line due into the area toward sunrise.

This is the windiest day I could remember since Ike in 2008.

[Ptarmigan]

It's the "hurry up and wait" game in storm chasing lingo. The most boring part of a severe weather outbreak...oh the anticipation.

It can be the most nerve wracking. It adds to the anxiety.

[tireman4]

It was really really windy during the Alabama Tornado Outbreak last year....as I can recall...

[Paul]

Another update from Jeff:

Strong winds continue over the area this afternoon.



Frequent wind gust at or above 40mph are being reported across the area including 44 at Victoria and 42 at Palacios with 38 at IAH. A wind gust to 69mph was reported at Victoria earlier today.



With radar showing a few developing showers over the area, strong winds aloft may be transported to the surface resulting some minor wind damage (downed tree limbs) and disruption of power. Currently over 9,000 residents across the Houston metro area are without power.



Strong winds will continue overnight ahead of a squall line due into the area toward sunrise.

This is the windiest day I could remember since Ike in 2008.

Ha I was just thinking that!! reminds me of when IKE started to come in with its TS winds.....very windy. Interesting that of the 9K I bet you most are due to trees. Even 3 years later after IKE we still have trees up in our power lines.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Another cell firing up over Del Rio

[Ptarmigan]

Ha I was just thinking that!! reminds me of when IKE started to come in with its TS winds.....very windy. Interesting that of the 9K I bet you most are due to trees. Even 3 years later after IKE we still have trees up in our power lines.

I remember the TS winds coming the afternoon before Ike. It was constantly windy. Than at night, it gets worse with the rain. I would not be surprised the power outages are from trees. Many of those trees are weakened due to the drought.

[Andrew]

Folks around Junction need to watch out:

[Paul]

I dont see a warning out for Junction yet but that is a supercell....those cloud tops are 60DBZ...one bad dude right there.

[Ptarmigan]

I dont see a warning out for Junction yet but that is a supercell....those cloud tops are 60DBZ...one bad dude right there.

I rarely see that kind of intensity on radar. Even hurricanes don't have it and they are really intense thunderstorms and have very high storm clouds.

[Paul]

I dont see a warning out for Junction yet but that is a supercell....those cloud tops are 60DBZ...one bad dude right there.

I rarely see that kind of intensity on radar. Even hurricanes don't have it and they are really intense thunderstorms and have very high storm clouds.

yeah if I was a Nado chaser I would be chasing that guy. That could spit out a EF3 given the size of the complex. Lets hope it collapses on itself or weakens....

[Andrew]

I dont see a warning out for Junction yet but that is a supercell....those cloud tops are 60DBZ...one bad dude right there.

I rarely see that kind of intensity on radar. Even hurricanes don't have it and they are really intense thunderstorms and have very high storm clouds.

yeah if I was a Nado chaser I would be chasing that guy. That could spit out a EF3 given the size of the complex. Lets hope it collapses on itself or weakens....

Radar is beginning to show some rotation now: