ENSO Updates

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.7ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have cooled. Looks like a Modoki El Nino. ENSO is cooling due to strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Pacific Basin

[Ptarmigan]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -7.6
Average for last 90 days -7.9
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.1

September -6.6
October -8.2
November -8.0


ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days -0.87

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have cooled, except for Region 1+2.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -6.9
Average for last 90 days -8.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -2.2

October -8.2
November -8.0
December -7.6


ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days -0.66

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have cooled. El Nino is really struggling.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -6.0
Average for last 90 days -7.7
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 0.2

October -8.2
November -8.0
December -7.6

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days -0.78

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 has cooled. Region 3, 3.4, and 4 have warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -8.0
Average for last 90 days -7.5
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -41.0

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days -0.68

SOI has really tanked to -41. ESPI has gotten up from last week.

[Ptarmigan]

December PDO is 2.51, which is the warmest December on record going back to 1900 if we use JISAO. It is even warmer than in December 1997.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

However, if we use NOAA, December 2014 PDO is very warm, but not the warmest. That goes to December 1940.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

[jasons2k]

When is the next ENSO update scheduled?

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 remain the same. Region 3.4 and 4 have warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -9.5
Average for last 90 days -8.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.1

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days -0.30

SOI is negative territory, while ESPI has gone up.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed, while Region 3 is unchanged. Region 3.4 and 4 have cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -9.2
Average for last 90 days -8.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -4.9

November -8.0
December -7.6
January -8.7

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days -0.03

SOI and ESPO have risen.

[Ptarmigan]

Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 remain the same.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -10.3
Average for last 90 days -7.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -2.1

November -8.0
December -7.6
January -8.7

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days -0.07

SOI has risen, while ESPI has dropped.

[Ptarmigan]

EURO mostly has El Nino by summer.

[BlueJay]

I am not shooting the messenger here and I do appreciate Ptarmigan's ENSO posts. However, in looking back through the archives I found Pt's post made on December 23, 2013 which gave us a forecast for El Nino to take place during hurricane season in 2014...


Re: ENSO Updates
Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Dec 23, 2013 9:21 pm

Most forecast models have a borderline El Nino by the peak of the hurricane season of August to October.

[Ptarmigan]

El Nino forecast by July. Most have El Nino. EURO has a strong El Nino by than.



This forecast a weak El Nino by July.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Cooling in Region 1+2. Warming in Region 3. No change in Region 3.4 and 4.