November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[biggerbyte]

Have had, and still getting good rains here in Porter. Is is all moving off to the NE now.

[srainhoutx]

Patience 'grasshopper'. The pattern will change. Heck, I'm enjoying the fact that we are even getting rain chances in this La Nina pattern, how ever meager those chances are. We've had a couple of bouts of severe weather already in November and it looks like another one is on the way for next week. There is a huge Polar Vortex anomaly setting over Alaska that is extremely uncommon and we've had a deep Western trough with strong upper disturbances riding S and into the Baja Region which is also very unusual. Cold air is building in Western Eurasia, The Arctic, Alaska and Western Canada. There is a piece of that cold air that is about to drop S into the Western US which will dump a lot of snow. We are about to see the pattern switch to a more winter like setup in a few weeks. It will just take a bit more time. Besides, this is the only 'weather' we've got, so we have to live with it. Complaining about it won't change a thing. That's what makes this crazy thing called weather so interesting and keeps us weather nerds on our toes. At least it's not 100F everyday and no rain in sight...

[biggerbyte]

Not to mention the fact that it is not winter yet. That is not to say that we can't chilly now and again, just as we have recently been. However, when it warms back up, or does not get that way at all, there is nothing to fuss about. This is transition time in Texas. Give me 80 on January 1st and we will talk.

[biggerbyte]

Oh, and let me add, that compared to what we had not so long ago, which was 90s and triple digits, with NO rain, I'd say we are way ahead of the game. I don't see how anybody can complain.

[djmike]

Dude, CHILL!! It's coming! This "normal" this time of year!

[sleetstorm]

I think that Eric Berger said a few weeks ago, if not longer, that Texas is now only 66% in an exceptional drought due to these weekly weather systems bringing Texas very much needed rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

The 'cold' front is slowly making progress into the NW zone at this hour. We should dip down into the 40's for the next couple of nights before a warm up begins and a return flow off the Gulf becomes established beginning on Friday. The next in a series of upper air disturbances should be diving S along the California Coast into the Baja Region setting the stage for another potential rain event early next week.

[wxman57]

I think that Eric Berger said a few weeks ago, if not longer, that Texas is now only 66% in an exceptional drought due to these weekly weather systems bringing Texas very much needed rainfall.

Here's the U.S. Drought Monitor website. Still almost all of Texas is in an exceptional drought as of Nov. 8th:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?TX,S

[wxman57]

"Normal" for mid November is lows in the low 50s and highs in the low 70s. But normal around here is an average of extremes. Last November, we were in the low-mid 80s all Thanksgiving week with lows as warm as 74 degrees. In 2009, the last 80 deg temp at IAH was on Nov. 15th. It was 82 on the 28th back in 2008. So the current temps are a bit above normal, but nothing unusual for November.

The cold front has just reached the Houston area. Temps will drop significantly this evening and overnight.

[Belmer]

"Normal" for mid November is lows in the low 50s and highs in the low 70s. But normal around here is an average of extremes. Last November, we were in the low-mid 80s all Thanksgiving week with lows as warm as 74 degrees. In 2009, the last 80 deg temp at IAH was on Nov. 15th. It was 82 on the 28th back in 2008. So the current temps are a bit above normal, but nothing unusual for November.

The cold front has just reached the Houston area. Temps will drop significantly this evening and overnight.

Actually, last Thanksgiving week, (well near the end) was very cold. Monday-Wednesday was pretty warm with upper 70s and low 80s for much of the viewing area. On Thanksgiving day, near the evening is when we had a powerful front move through that dropped temps very quickly behind the front dropping temperatures nearly 20-30 degrees within 1-2 hours. I remember that very clearly because I left my house around 6:00pm that evening and waited in a long line at Best Buy for Black Friday and I remember I had to bring at LEAST 5 blankets because temps were in the 40s, it was raining, (it was a front with rain behind it) and the wind was blowing up to 20-35mph. My blanket kept blowing away and I had to get heavy stuff to hold it down. But yes, before Thanksgiving was very warm. Doesn't look like we're going to have that powerful of a front this year.
I really enjoy having cold weather on the holidays, as it gets me in the holiday spirit. Though, if we can get our mid to upper 60s in here and lows in the mid 40s like some models are predicting, I'll be satisfied!

[Katdaddy]

Hold in there AZ. Colder weather may be on the way the first part DEC.

[redneckweather]

Yep, I remember last Thanksgiving's (evening) front very well myself. My son and me went hunting the following Saturday and it was 23 degrees that morning in Madison County. My little buddy heater I had in the stand wasn't even keeping us warm.

[sambucol]

Hold in there AZ. Colder weather may be on the way the first part DEC.

Please tell us more!

[Andrew]

Hold in there AZ. Colder weather may be on the way the first part DEC.

Please tell us more!

Well multiple models are indicating a POSSIBLE lowering of heights across most of central U.S. around the end of November into the first part of December. Currently temperatures up in Alaska and multiple parts of Canada are already getting pretty cold. The euro is indicating some pretty dramatic negative 500mb anomalies that would indicate some very cold air that could begin to build in Alaska (and eventually spill to the south). Alaska has already been getting some intense storms with a lot of cold air and this looks to continue and possible intensify. What we could begin to see is that "step down pattern" of cold air in December. The low resolution GFS continues to paint a progressive pattern but with a lot more cold air to go along with that pattern (Please remember this is the +180h time frame). While all this is just speculation at this point, start to watch around Alaska and Canada in the coming weeks for lowering heights and colder air. Once we get more snow to the north and colder temperatures up in Canada and Alaska that should allow for colder air to come down farther south without as much modification.

Current temps in Alaska:

Lows_Tonight.jpg

2011111704_metars_pak.gif

Euro 500mb hour 144

12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA144.gif

Hour 240:

12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

GFS 500 Vort :

gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

GFS 250mb ( You can see the Jet dipping to the south) :

gfs_namer_240_250_wnd_ht.gif

[srainhoutx]

With the Thanksgiving Holiday travel period ahead, I though a broader discussion may be in order and guidance is trending toward a severe weather event for parts of Texas beginning Monday. Currently the SPC has noted the area and will be something to monitor in the days ahead...

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/LOW OFF THE CA COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
/EARLY DAY 4/ IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SEWD ALONG THE COAST AND THEN
BEGIN AN EWD TURN INTO THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO LATE. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S.
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG A REMNANT COLD FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND VICINITY.

HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARD
THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 5...HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
TX/ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
FAVORABLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS S OF THE
FRONT...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE CAPPING SHOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH SEWD
EXTENT -- INTO SRN AND ERN TX...STORM INITIATION SEEMS LIKELY
FARTHER W/NW. WITH VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT -- SPREADING EWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- ATOP VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. PRESUMING MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...THE THREAT FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT SHOULD EVOLVE -- THUS WARRANTING THE
INTRODUCTION OF A THREAT AREA FOR DAY 5 /MON. NOV. 21/ ACROSS PARTS
OF NRN/NWRN AND INTO CENTRAL TX.

[srainhoutx]

Still a long way out, but the operational Euro and GFS are beginning to suggest a nice cool down around Thanksgiving weekend. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

Srain, how is next weekend/early Thanksgiving week looking for the Front Range & Colorado Rockies? I know it's early, but I'm trying to figure out just how cold and how much snow I may be in for.

Take some pics...

HPC Afternoon Update:

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH MODERATE FRONTAL RAINS IN THE OH VALLEY
SOUTHWEST INTO AR AND OK SUN-MON AND AS THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORTWVE APPROACHS BACKING THE
FLOW AND INCREASING THE MOISTURE ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED TUES-WED OVER NRN TX/OK/AR AND MO. THIS AREA OF RAIN
WILL SHIFT EWD WED AND SHOULD BE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK DAYS 6-7 WED/THU.

UPSTREAM EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY COASTAL RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOCAL SUN-MON WITH INLAND MDT TO HVY CO ROCKIES
SNOWFALL.

[ejburas]

Srain, how is next weekend/early Thanksgiving week looking for the Front Range & Colorado Rockies? I know it's early, but I'm trying to figure out just how cold and how much snow I may be in for.

Take some pics...

HPC Afternoon Update:

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH MODERATE FRONTAL RAINS IN THE OH VALLEY
SOUTHWEST INTO AR AND OK SUN-MON AND AS THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORTWVE APPROACHS BACKING THE
FLOW AND INCREASING THE MOISTURE ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED TUES-WED OVER NRN TX/OK/AR AND MO. THIS AREA OF RAIN
WILL SHIFT EWD WED AND SHOULD BE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK DAYS 6-7 WED/THU.

UPSTREAM EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY COASTAL RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOCAL SUN-MON WITH INLAND MDT TO HVY CO ROCKIES
SNOWFALL.

I hope you are right! The latest NWS point forecasts do not seem as enthusiastic about the snowfall potential after Saturday, calling for only a 30% chance.

[srainhoutx]

So you want some cold, well here you go...

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
110 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR...

THE FIRST COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON HAS SETTLED IN OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA. UNUSUALLY FRIGID TEMPERATURES FOR MID-NOVEMBER HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN
40 BELOW ZERO ARE BEING REPORTED IN VALLEYS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES UNDER 50 BELOW ZERO IN SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE SET MORE THAN 40 YEARS
AGO WERE BROKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA. THIS INCLUDES
RADIO STATION KJNP IN NORTH POLE WHICH BOTTOMED OUT AT 49 BELOW
THIS MORNING...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 46 BELOW SET BACK
IN 1969. OTHER RECORDS FROM 1969 THAT WERE BROKEN THIS MORNING
INCLUDE EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE AT 43 BELOW...THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT
WITH 41 BELOW AND THE UNIVERSITY EXPERIMENTAL STATION AT 41 BELOW
WHICH BROKE RECORD SET IN 1918. OUTSIDE OF FAIRBANKS... MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS REPORTED A BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURE OF 54 BELOW WHICH
BROKE THE PREVIOUS LOW OF 51 BELOW SET IN 1956.

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. THE RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER 18TH AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT
IS 33 BELOW...38 BELOW AT EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE...AND 41 BELOW
AT KJNP IN NORTH POLE.

TEMPERATURES FROM 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME MODERATION IS
EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW ZERO. THE COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN OVER
THE INTERIOR AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN FAIRBANKS THIS WEEK IS AROUND 9 ABOVE
WITH AN AVERAGE LOW OF 7 BELOW ZERO.

BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF OFFICIAL LOW TEMPERATURES AS OF NOON
THURSDAY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FAIRBANKS AREA:
NORTH POLE (KJNP).......................49 BELOW (NEW RECORD)
NORTH POLE WOODSMOKE SUBDIVISION........47 BELOW 
FORT YUKON #2...........................44 BELOW
EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE..................43 BELOW (NEW RECORD)
CLEAR SKY...............................42 BELOW
FAIRBANKS AIRPORT.......................41 BELOW (NEW RECORD) 
UNIVERSITY EXPERIMENTAL STATION.........41 BELOW (NEW RECORD)
UAF WEST RIDGE..........................40 BELOW (NEW RECORD)
GOLDSTREAM CREEK........................40 BELOW

OUTSIDE OF FAIRBANKS:
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS......................54 BELOW (NEW RECORD)
TELIDA RAWS.............................47 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)
CHALKYITSIK RAWS........................46 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)
FORT YUKON AIRPORT......................46 BELOW
NIKOLAI.................................45 BELOW
TANANA AIRPORT..........................42 BELOW
NENANA AIRPORT..........................42 BELOW
COLDFOOT RAWS...........................41 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)
BETTLES AIRPORT.........................40 BELOW

$$

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if all that cold air up in Alaska will end up here.