May Weather Discussions. Drougnt Continues For Houston

[wxman57]

Partial CLL sounding is in, too. Note the greater moisture aloft:

[wxman57]

Am I allowed to post that at a national weather forum in their little orphan Texas subforum, if I save it to my hard drive and remove any identifying information that could tie it back to you?

I'm not sure. Probably best not to post the U of H sounding. CLL sounding data is being sent to the NWS.

Oh, and I don't know that either will make it into the RUC model.

[weatherag]

So the biggest hindrance to widespread convection would be lack of moisture in the mid levels and not necessarily cap strength?

[weatherag]

Farther distance, but quicker driving, and way more scenic. There is a barn that I always see Aggie girls stopped at getting their pictures taken.

Yes that's quite a popular landmark. Will always have the class year of the graduating seniors painted on it. Hence, it's almost tradition for the seniors to make the trip up Highway 6 to have their photo snapped.

[Kludge]

Something just began falling from the sky here. It might be rain, but it's been so long that I could be mistaken.

[jasons2k]

Radar is looking decent to the NW. Now only if it could nudge a bit closer...

I'm getting some serious wind gusts here too. It has really picked-up in the last hour or so.

[srainhoutx]

The good news is the cap has been broken except across Coastal Areas. Good to see storms firing in the NW areas. HGX likes the HRRR model and that suggests better chances N of Metro Houston. We've cleared out somewhat in NW Harris County with partly cloudy skies. Wind is howling and boy is it humid. It would be a shame to waist a lack of capping, but as they say, it is what it is.

[wxman57]

As long as "what it is" isn't greater than 0.55" of rain (and preferably over 0.23") I'll be really happy today! I am at least a little concerned that we could get over 0.55" at IAH from a stray shower or two (or three). That would knock me out of this month's forecast contest for a max one-day total (I have 0.53", the lowest of 25 mets).

[srainhoutx]

Sorry wxman57. I’m rooting for rainfall across the area. You've won enough contests throughout the years.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TXZ163-176-196-198-202200-
BRAZOS-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN COLLEGE
STATION...MADISONVILLE...AND CROCKETT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NORTH ZULCH...KURTEN...
IOLA...AUSTONIO...WIXON VALLEY...NORMANGEE...MIDWAY...MADISONVILLE...
LATEXO...CROCKETT AND BRYAN.

[jasons2k]

It's like the Montgomery County line is a solid wall. They just won't nudge closer...

[srainhoutx]

The 19Z HRRR Composite Reflectivity (00Z) suggests storms will stay to our N...

[wxman57]

Sorry wxman57. I’m rooting for rainfall across the area. You've won enough contests throughout the years.

Actually, in the last 12 years of contests (4 per year - first front, freeze 95 deg and hurricane numbers), I've not won a single one. I'm due.

[weatherguy425]

Srain, is that a projected "radar snap shot" or a forecasted accumulated rainfall?

[srainhoutx]

Srain, is that a projected "radar snap shot" or a forecasted accumulated rainfall?

radar sim, weatherguy425 for hour 00Z

[weatherguy425]

Well then i guess (if it verifies) that most of southeast texas will atleast see a little bit of rain.

[Kludge]

It's like the Montgomery County line is a solid wall. They just won't nudge closer...

Been there / Done that my friend. I think of how many times I looked at the radar and figured there was NO WAY the storms could miss my house... so I rushed out to put up outdoor furniture cushions, etc. only to have the rain come to a dead stop at my doorstep. The conditions seem to be ripening for you, and I think the dry line will bring you a nice soaking.

[srainhoutx]

~Sigh~ so close, yet so far away...

[wxman57]

Radar echoes NW of Harris County are weakening. Rain chances don't look good for Houston.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE ERN HALF OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313...

VALID 202234Z - 210030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313
CONTINUES.

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS -- AND LEADING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION --
CONTINUES FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX NEWD INTO NERN TX. THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUES.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS STRONG TO LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS MOVING NEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN TX...NEAR AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE ACROSS
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE PRE-DRYLINE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SHEAR MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF STRONG CONVECTION -- AND LOCAL THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GOSS.. 05/20/2011


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...