February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[jasons2k]

Looks like the consensus is that it will be cold. The only question is, how cold will it be and will there be sleet and/or snow.

I'll take the bait and take a stab from 7-8 days out....

18 Degrees and No.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro Ensemble mean is further W than the operational...

[jasons2k]

I guess that depends on where you are and/or who is doing the forecasting. Every once in a while, it's a tad warmer than forecast here (NWS), but many, many times, I've been a little or a decent amount colder than forecast. So much so that whatever my forecasted low is, I can usually assume it's going to be several degrees colder.

Good point on that! I almost always use the NWS numbers to compare whether or not they are accurate. I know I can reliably take the IAH number and always see if it verified or not.

On a calm, clear, winter morning my house will almost always be exactly 1 degree colder than IAH. My NWS click-to-point forecast is usually anywhere from 1-3 degrees colder than IAH. If it's the one degree, verification is easy for me.

Last December, IIRC correctly, the numbers forecast were 24 at IAH and 23 at my house and 29/28 is what verified. The two Jan events were similar except on this last event, I think my point-to-click number was 2 degrees below the IAH number. Both my house and the airport war warmer than what was expected...

It's not always like that though. One time last year or the year before it was forecast to be 31 at the airport and 30 at my house. I woke-up and it was 26 outside and 27 at the airport. I didn't cover anything (I won't for 30+) so that one hurt when it was over!!

[srainhoutx]

Midland/Odessa:

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT....THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A DIGGING
NPAC LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH NEAR NV. AFTER WHICH...THE NWP MODELS
DIFFER ON WHERE IT WILL END UP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A BRIEF CUTOFF LOW WITH IT AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES IT
EASTWARD OVER NM TUESDAY. THE ECMWF QUICKLY MOVES IT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A WESTERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. REGARDLESS...ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW
AN ARCTIC AIR-MASS SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEST TEXAS AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT (GFS). THE ECMWF WAS PREVIOUSLY THE COLDEST
SOLUTION...WITH RIDICULOUS 850MB TEMPS NEAR -15C OVER MAF TUESDAY.
THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/COLDEST SOLUTION AND
IS ALSO WET WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER FEATURE. WE
HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND...WE HAVE LOWER MAX TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AS WELL CONSIDERING THE PREVIOUS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/UPSLOPE REGIME CURRENTLY PROGGED. THE EXTENDED WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[harpman]

Did someone delete my last post?

[srainhoutx]

Did someone delete my last post?

Nope. Try again.

[TexasMetBlake]

In the later runs, you can see on the link below, how the trough axis is much deeper and further west with each 12z run. This bodes REALLY WELL for us...

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/gre ... %2012z.htm

*edit because forgot to post the link..

[harpman]

I'm kinda like Ed. Cold temps without precip is kinda like a beautiful woman who "doesn't like men".....what a waste.

[TexasMetBlake]

I'm kinda like Ed. Cold temps without precip is kinda like a beautiful woman who "doesn't like men".....what a waste.

<scratches head>...not for the other woman. Good for them. lol

[harpman]

I'm kinda like Ed. Cold temps without precip is kinda like a beautiful woman who "doesn't like men".....what a waste.

<scratches head>...not for the other woman. Good for them. lol

Never thought about it that way.......

[TexasMetBlake]

GFS shows a ton of moisture but temps too warm for anything but rain. I also checked CXO and CLL...all rain. ACT shows freezing rain though for what it's worth.

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kiah.txt

[harpman]

18Z GFS hasn't run yet, has it??

[TexasMetBlake]

18Z GFS hasn't run yet, has it??

Nope. Give it another hour.

[wxman57]

Let's follow the NWS forecast for next week. Currently, going for low to mid 50s in the cold air. I suspect those values may be 15-20 degrees too warm, but don't expect them to modify the forecast much until they're more certain that the GFS is incorrect with its relatively mild temperature forecast behind the Arctic front:

325 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011
TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.

[srainhoutx]

Allan's site has been slow to update, but here are the 12Z Euro Ensembles...further W with regard to the Arctic High Pressure and a full latitude positive tilted trough...interesting...

[jasons2k]

Interesting? More like sickening unless you're a glutton for frostbite.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting? More like sickening unless you're a glutton for frostbite.

I know Jason. I'll be wrapping the pool equipment tomorrow. Ugh...I will not chance the anti freeze protection not doing it's job. The weekend is looking too wet to do much after Saturday morning/early afternoon.

[tireman4]

Let's follow the NWS forecast for next week. Currently, going for low to mid 50s in the cold air. I suspect those values may be 15-20 degrees too warm, but don't expect them to modify the forecast much until they're more certain that the GFS is incorrect with its relatively mild temperature forecast behind the Arctic front:

325 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011
TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.

Were you not thinking maybe Sunday or Saturday before they commit?

[jasons2k]

Let's follow the NWS forecast for next week. Currently, going for low to mid 50s in the cold air. I suspect those values may be 15-20 degrees too warm, but don't expect them to modify the forecast much until they're more certain that the GFS is incorrect with its relatively mild temperature forecast behind the Arctic front:

Well, you're still 8-10 degrees too warm too so what's the difference?

I'm just playing....

[srainhoutx]

As we begin to look ahead, I wanted to show a bit different view of the Pacific. The energy that will generate the short waves (Upper Air Disturbances) will traverse from this region. If you recall there have been Winter RECON missions in the Western Pacific. Also notice the large winter cyclone just S of the Aleutian Island in AK. That feature will continue to break off pieces of energy that will become any chance for moisture in the days ahead...

01262011 P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg

01262011 NE Pacific wv.jpg