2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 We wont, has a day left over water, but its just a mess, convection is just not firing around the center, will see about the 2nd, that one might have a slightly better environment to work with, just hoping that one doesnt get shoved into mexico too

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 We wont, has a day left over water, but its just a mess, convection is just not firing around the center, will see about the 2nd, that one might have a slightly better environment to work with, just hoping that one doesnt get shoved into mexico too

I hope it doesn’t because it would be a waste of a name.

[djmike]

Cpv17 We wont, has a day left over water, but its just a mess, convection is just not firing around the center, will see about the 2nd, that one might have a slightly better environment to work with, just hoping that one doesnt get shoved into mexico too

IMG_2100.jpeg

Local met has already posted the high pressure will prevent anything from coming northward rest of this week and next. Thats a bold statement this early I would think.

[Stratton20]

djmike who posted that? drives me crazy when they say stuff like that, when it comes to the tropics, and especially something that doesnt even exist yet, we can only guess where something would go but its insane to say its for certain going to a certain location lol

[Stratton20]

Despite globals taking the 2nd system into mexico, im not convinced of that just yet, models also show a weakness in the ridge with some sort of weak backdoor front/ shortwave trough working its way down into the eastern us, helps to erode the ridge a bit, this could go straight into mexico, but i also think their is still a legit possibility it could get drawn northward to texas, we all know how this goes, its too early in the game lol

[djmike]

djmike who posted that? drives me crazy when they say stuff like that, when it comes to the tropics, and especially something that doesnt even exist yet, we can only guess where something would go but its insane to say its for certain going to a certain location lol

Beaumont Mets Greg Bostwick and Kerry Cooper

[Stratton20]

djmike ah ive heard of them, they are good, but they should know better than to make that kind of a claim right off the bat

[djmike]

djmike ah ive heard of them, they are good, but they should know better than to make that kind of a claim right off the bat

I agree.

[Cpv17]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
early next week while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 interesting that they increased the chances despite models not showing a whole lot

[biggerbyte]

Despite globals taking the 2nd system into mexico, im not convinced of that just yet, models also show a weakness in the ridge with some sort of weak backdoor front/ shortwave trough working its way down into the eastern us, helps to erode the ridge a bit, this could go straight into mexico, but i also think their is still a legit possibility it could get drawn northward to texas, we all know how this goes, its too early in the game lol

Amen.. The ridge is expected to move away anyway, so this time the game changes..There is some chatter that this second system will be inconsequential. The door gets opened with nothing to walk through. LOL

[Stratton20]

06z ICON sees a bit of a weakness on this run, as the 2nd system approaches north mexico, its starts to turn and lift a little more to the north, run ends at hour 120 but has a weak closed low sitting off the coast of brownsville

[Stratton20]

500 mb height pattern gets a bit complex as this next system gets into the BOC , initially this system gets steered WNW towards central mexico by days 5-6, however this is where it gets complicated, some of the models are forecasting a shortwave trough to dig down over the eastern US, eroding the massive heat ridge that has been dominating the US lately, the question becomes then, does this system get steered west into mexico by a building upper ridge out in west US, or does the shortwave trough erode the ridge enough to create just enough of a weakness to allow the system to come more northward into texas? Lots to watch, but im not sold on this going into mexico just yet

[Stratton20]

Now we got a new for system 2

[Cpv17]

Now we got a new for system 2

Interesting. Something to track at least.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yup, i am seeing a couple of things / players in the models that could change the steering pattern, unlike our first system im at least thinking their is a chance this next one might be able to gain some latitude

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yup, i am seeing a couple of things / players in the models that could change the steering pattern, unlike our first system im at least thinking their is a chance this next one might be able to gain some latitude

Well the NHC still thinks there’s a chance for it to move NW.

[DoctorMu]

92L is projected to head toward Sharpie-ville. However, sneaking underneath that ridge is risky business. We're in the thrall of easterlies on and off for awhile. A partially opened eye on 92L just in case...

[tireman4]

92L is projected to head toward Sharpie-ville. However, sneaking underneath that ridge is risky business. We're in the thrall of easterlies on and off for awhile. A partially opened eye on 92L just in case...

Or raise an eyebrow, as Srain would say

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu that one could be sneaky, but the heat ridge should be weakening so it should make that NE turn , but you never know.. sneaky sneaky