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While still not a Don (2011) scenario, it is interesting that CMC & GFS operational both imply a less favorable environment closer to the coastline upon approach; drier air + wind ahear combo. It’ll be interesting to watch.

Just want some rain!!!!

The ants are terrible

Dls2010r wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 12:11 pm The ants are terrible

We just need rain. I really don’t want the other features that comes with a Hurricane or Tropical Storm. A lot of rain would be greatly appreciated. My yard will rejoice.

In this case we would want this to become a tropical storm, if its too weak then it wouldnt bring much in the way of beneficial rains, a more organized system would do the trick

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 12:54 pm In this case we would want this to become a tropical storm, if its too weak then it wouldnt bring much in the way of beneficial rains, a more organized system would do the trick

This is a bit of a double edged sword. A classified system could allow for more dry air entrainment as the system ‘wraps up’ in addition to a more concentrated area of rainfall; some see more, others away from favored area see less. Lots of factors.

weatherguy425 guess I didnt think about that, though if this system is absolute to consolidate a solid mositure bubble field/ it might be able to fend off some of the dry air, also depends on the trajctory of the system in land, on the cmc it just moves straight due west in land, GFS has a better movement in more of a NW component

ICON getting onboard also.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 11:50 am The 12z GFS now shows development of the tropical wave the cmc and euro both show, CMC strong tropical storm (997 mb), GFS weak sheared depression but closed low, CMC near corpus, GFS near galveston

That GFS run sucks though. All the rain is in LA. We need something to come in south of Matagorda.

As usual, this time of year, I have to make my PSA. Anytime, but especially during the peak months, have your Hurricane Kits stocked. Plus, it is good to have them anytime during the year.

Still a week out but hard to argue against the continuing model agreement for the disturbance that will be moving from the eastern GoM.

12z Euro is weaker with the reflection early on off of Florida but becomes stronger as it approaches the Texas coast.

12Z Euro keeps the system as a potent wave for now.Has rainfall amounts of 3-6+ inches along and south of I-59 FWIW.

It's good to see Scott, weatherguy425 and srainhoutx on the board we're gonna need your expertise in the coming weeks.

12z EPS

Interesting week ahead.With really good agreement between the globals of at least a tropical wave approaching the Texas coast next week.We'll see if its more than that or not.

don wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:26 pm 12Z Euro keeps the system as a potent wave for now.Has rainfall amounts of 3-6+ inches along and south of I-59 FWIW.

Screenshot 2023-08-14 at 13-56-45 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-08-14 at 14-01-01 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

THis would be an absolute best-case scenario.....Good Lord, please let this pan out.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:19 pm

don wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:26 pm 12Z Euro keeps the system as a potent wave for now.Has rainfall amounts of 3-6+ inches along and south of I-59 FWIW.

Screenshot 2023-08-14 at 13-56-45 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-08-14 at 14-01-01 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

THis would be an absolute best-case scenario.....Good Lord, please let this pan out.

Those totals offshore need to come more inland and then I’ll take it.

12Z EURO TC probabilities up to 40% now.

don wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 4:48 pm 12Z EURO TC probabilities up to 40% now.

We love to see it!

So in.