April 2023

[Cpv17]

3.53 inches. That's enough, thank you. Send the rain south!

The good thing about that for you was that it was mainly a slow steady rain that soaked in.

[don]

Nice complex of showers slowly moving east.

[DoctorMu]

3.53 inches. That's enough, thank you. Send the rain south!

The good thing about that for you was that it was mainly a slow steady rain that soaked in.

We're in the cool sector. So, no severe weather. If the sun came out it would be a great day!

My wife made me turn the heat on this morning. lol

Those lines of storms SW of Victoria could pay dividends for folks in the HOU area, including south of I-10.

[869MB]

SOI index is spiking, but it could be contaminated by Tropical Low 23U.

Keep in mind those Daily Contributions values are not the SOI. Just focus on the SOI monthly and 90 Day values. We’re still doing fine with a monthly value at -3.28 which is well within the neutral range. There will be occasional EWB (Easterly Wind Bursts) in the Pacific Ocean Nino Region 3.4 that will cause the Daily Contribution values to occasionally increase or spike…This in turn will cause the monthly value to increase, but we shouldn’t see a repeat of the past 3 years of the Consistently Positive values.

However, if the forecasts are correct, there shouldn’t be any extended stretches of EWB over the next few weeks like we have experienced over the last two to three years - It’s these winds that caused the monthly SOI values to rise so high and remain consistently high. Therefore, if the SOI monthly value does increase, it shouldn’t rise too high and remain within the neutral range which is usually roughly between +7 and-7. If this is the case and the models are right, we should be just fine in the long run.

Now if we can somehow transition out of this Negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Phase we’ve been stuck in since around 2008. Unfortunately, we may have to wait another 10 years or so before that happens.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro and GFS keep things unsettled over the next 10-12 days with at least a chance for storms every day

[DoctorMu]

The biggest chance of rain are Mon/Tue and next Sunday after this mess passes east.

Looks like mild (cooler) to seasonal temperatures this weekend and next work week. DPs in the 50s, so less dripping sweat and A/C spinning for the sensible forecast ahead.

[Stratton20]

Noaas’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks keep us on the wetter side for the foreseeable future

[dp6]

Next week looks incredible, if the stinkin' rain stays away.

[Cpv17]

Next week looks incredible, if the stinkin' rain stays away.

Are you complaining about a couple days of rain after we’ve been relatively dry for the past few months? I mean I’ll gladly take your rain. Send it to Wharton County.

[dp6]

Naw, I'm good with our 2 or 3 days worth of rain. Just don't want too many days of it during perhaps what could be one of the last spells of glorious temps/decent dew points until late Oct.

[Cpv17]

Naw, I'm good with our 2 or 3 days worth of rain. Just don't want too many days of it during perhaps what could be one of the last spells of glorious temps/decent dew points until late Oct.

I think we’re gonna be seeing a lot more chances of rain over the next few weeks. A lot will depend on the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index).

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep, NOAA seams to agree with this lol

[DoctorMu]

Noaas’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks keep us on the wetter side for the foreseeable future

You know they don't include days 1-5, right?

The 7 day NWS forecast through next Friday only has a 20% chance of rain on Monday. Next Sunday is the best next chance. We're saturated, so I look forward to a week of boring weather.

[Cromagnum]

After today's pitiful performance, my grand total for the week is 0.5 inches.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu i know im just talking about in the long term haha, wont mind a few quiet days, but definitely would rather keep this stormy weather around , keeps the temps in check

[DoctorMu]

^ Save the clouds for June, July, and August!

We're due for 60s and 70s all week. Enjoy, folks.

We also want to save some clear weather mojo for one year from tomorrow, when the total eclipse will sail through. The average lowest cloud cover on April 8 is Kerrville through Waco along the line of totality.

My primary plan is to head to near Killeen. It will of course depend upon the forecast!

[Cromagnum]

Here's hoping the next system is more generous to the areas that missed our this past week. At least the weekend looks really pleasant.

[Iceresistance]

SOI index is spiking, but it could be contaminated by Tropical Low 23U.

It better not be spiking!

Yeah, it is likely contaminated by 23U as it's within 200 miles of Darwin

Daily SOI is at +30, but 30-Day SOI is -2.45.

[Stratton20]

Hope everyones lawn got a nice drink these past few days, Noaa still has the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks with above normal precipitation across the state, but rain chances looks rather unimpressive in the models, we will see

[redneckweather]

My veggie garden took an arse whooping so I'm good without rain for a pretty good while. Bring on the heat!