Wx Infinity Forums

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:10 am

djmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:43 am Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!

The rich get richer...

davidiowx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:09 pm The latest HRRR run literally donut holes Fort Bend County.. Almost hilarious as this point.. Nice band of rain for everyone but Ft Bend.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 1:21 pm The chance of rain will be approaching from the north, not the south, folks. I still expected the boundary to run out of steam when it hits College Station.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms...convection...have struggled to develop this morning due to mid level dry air inhibiting deeper updrafts. Looks like best chance of thunderstorms will be with boundary due to pass from north to south across the area later this afternoon and evening.
Latest HRRR and model trends suggest we may see a fairly solid
line cross from N to S between about 21Z and 03Z. Based on this
carrying window of VCTS at TAF sites to highlight this feature...but expect will update to include a tempo group once line has been established and have increased confidence in timing and location. Might see such and update within next few hours.

Reilly

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:34 pm A Major pattern change is coming, the death ridge pattern is going bye bye i havent seen the outlooks thus good in forever it seems!

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:20 pm TWC app is janky.
Rain chances today: 0%
Rain chances in hourly forecast: 90% at 9pm.

Whatever…

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:44 pm Umm hmm. Kicking the can.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms...convection...have struggled to develop this morning due to mid level dry air inhibiting deeper updrafts. Looks like best chance of thunderstorms will be with boundary due to pass from north to south across the area later this afternoon and evening.
Latest HRRR and model trends suggest we may see a fairly solid
line cross from N to S between about 21Z and 03Z. Based on this
carrying window of VCTS at TAF sites to highlight this feature...but expect will update to include a tempo group once line has been established and have increased confidence in timing and location. Might see such and update within next few hours.

Reilly

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:34 pm A Major pattern change is coming, the death ridge pattern is going bye bye i havent seen the outlooks thus good in forever it seems!

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:41 pm Looks like a collision of the boundaries will occur in my vicinity around 5:30-6.

The outflow up north is starting to outrun the convection. Always makes me nervous, especially here in Texas where literally every. Single. Ingredient. Must be 100% perfect for a storm to not go poof.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:59 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:41 pm Looks like a collision of the boundaries will occur in my vicinity around 5:30-6.

The outflow up north is starting to outrun the convection. Always makes me nervous, especially here in Texas where literally every. Single. Ingredient. Must be 100% perfect for a storm to not go poof.

Welcome to the potential epicenter.

Expecting the line to jump over my house. I wouldn't give up in the HOU area...