Wx Infinity Forums

biggerbyte wrote:Landfall will be somewhere from S. E. Texas, to Central LA. You can take that to the bank. Certainly no further east than NOLA, but I think this will push a bit further south than some may think at this point, so NOLA would seem less likely.

We'll see..

I love your enthusiasm BB.

at this point there seems to be a lot of rain on the west side of the low so who knows maybe we will get some rain even if the system makes landfall east of us.

any thoughts?

Should bear watching. I noticed summers without 100°F and wet July's saw major hurricanes make landfall from Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 to Alicia.

Snowman wrote:at this point there seems to be a lot of rain on the west side of the low so who knows maybe we will get some rain even if the system makes landfall east of us.

any thoughts?

Th QPF would suggest some rain.

I notice they've moved us out of the purple.... to about 1 inch..

Rip76 wrote:I notice they've moved us out of the purple.... to about 1 inch..

Keep in mind thats on a 5-day "scale".

desiredwxgd wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:Landfall will be somewhere from S. E. Texas, to Central LA. You can take that to the bank. Certainly no further east than NOLA, but I think this will push a bit further south than some may think at this point, so NOLA would seem less likely.

We'll see..

I love your enthusiasm BB.

I want to be hopeful. This system look like mostly a rainmaker, so it would be ideal. Nothing is ever that easy, and getting anything here is still up in the air. Some of the models want to carry this across LA and into east Texas. If this stays weak, then no matter the path we should get some rainfall. Otherwise, folks east and north will get it. We could still hope for a wrap around band on the west side, I suppose.

Again, nothing is for certain just yet.

HPC:

MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH OUR DEPICTION OF THE
REMAINS OF TD FIVE FORECAST NEAR THE GULF COAST DURING THE SHORT
RANGE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS REMAINS OUR COMPROMISE TRACK AFTER
COORDINATION WITH TPC. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO FOCUS SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...THIS COMPROMISE GUIDANCE TRACK
REMAINS AT ODDS WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER NEWD...RECENT ECMWF AND DGEX RUNS THAT ARE MUCH FARTHER
SWWD INTO TX...AND LATEST 06/12 UTC GFS RUNS THAT HAVE TRENDED WWD
FROM ITS RESPECTIVE 00 UTC GFS RUN.

You can defiantly (in my opinion) make out the “L” itself and the cyclonic flow. Nice convective activity to its southwest.

How does one a link or rather radar in motion type link?

desiredwxgd wrote:How does one a link or rather radar in motion type link?

Hope it helps...

http://forums.khou.com/faq.php#f2r7

18Z NAM @ hour 42...

That convection really looks like it wants to break off on it's own.

18Z NAM @ 60 hours...

Starting to see a decent amount of convection to the north wrapping around to the south-southeast.

There is certainly an LLC or appears to be. Seems convection is on the uptick as well as banding features per Pensacola Radar trends. It's exciting/unnerving that models have trended south and west. IF** this gets far enough out, it will miss Louisiana and could pull an Alicia. Warning time here in Houston will be minimal so spread the word.

At this time, EVEN IF it missed Louisiana, I don't think we're looking at a major hurricane because the proximity to land. However, nothing can be ruled out at this time.

18Z NAM @ hour 72...

Man, just 50 miles further south could make all the difference in Houston getting a possible 'significant storm' and remaining dry and hot on the subsidence side of the low. Interesting scenario.

18Z NAM @ hour 84...