September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Stratton20]

weatherman425 exactly, 100% agree with you though, but damn this run of the GFS would absolutely be gut wrenching for Louisiana , cant imagine what that would do to the power grids that are already so badly damaged their

[Stormlover2020]

Hasn’t even developed yet…I could see that ridge build back in pushing it towards Mexico and Texas but still longs ways out

[Cpv17]

Looks to me like the 18z GEFS has a slightly stronger signal than the 12z did for the second system.

[Kingwood36]

What second system?

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 the GFS has been consistent the past 5 runs in developing another system next week in the gulf, just something to watch rn

[Rip76]

Awesome day for a Longhorn victory.

Now, just wishing for some cool fronts.

[Cpv17]

Awesome day for a Longhorn victory.

Now, just wishing for some cool fronts.

They actually played decent considering they were playing a top 25 team. Came away somewhat impressed with the new coaching staff and freshman qb.

I’m not wishing for any fronts unless they’re gonna bring me some rain. Same areas have been hit around here 3 or 4 times and I haven’t gotten anything but sprinkles. If it takes a weak sloppy tc to come in here and bring me a few inches then I’ll take it. Just don’t want anything crazy.

[Texaspirate11]

From our NWS:

As far as track of any potential TC goes, model guidance favors a
path more towards the north or even northeast Gulf coast, rather
than the northwest. The 12Z model cycle saw a bit more
consolidation towards that solution, particularly among the
deterministic models. This likely is occurring because of center
development on the northeast corner of the broad trough lifting
northward. But in the ensembles, there are members (particularly
in the Euro ensemble) that still show a surface low that heads
towards Texas. If the low doesn`t coalesce in the spot that the
current consensus has it happening, we could see things swing
pretty dramatically. Is this likely? Perhaps not - if forced to
put down some money, I`d go along with the bulk of the guidance.
Something we`ll want to watch as things evolve next week, though
not necessarily with a ton of stress right now. As always, it`s a
good reminder that we are near the peak of hurricane season, and
whether this becomes a threat to our area or not, preparation is
key.

[TexasBreeze]

Awesome day for a Longhorn victory.

Now, just wishing for some cool fronts.

They actually played decent considering they were playing a top 25 team. Came away somewhat impressed with the new coaching staff and freshman qb.

I’m not wishing for any fronts unless they’re gonna bring me some rain. Same areas have been hit around here 3 or 4 times and I haven’t gotten anything but sprinkles. If it takes a weak sloppy tc to come in here and bring me a few inches then I’ll take it. Just don’t want anything crazy.

Yeah if fronts come in too regularly, they end up creating worse dry conditions, not improving them.
Great start for Texas with the new additions! OU had a tough game till the very end and Houston should have beat TxTech, but too many unanswered points given up. Aggies routing Kent. Love this season!

[DoctorMu]

Central and eastern GoM coastal solution becoming predominant for 91L.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu yeah 91L isnt a problem for us, definitely will watch late next week though

[Scott747]

Ridge orientation on the 0z GFS would likely send our 'phantom' system towards N Mex or Texas. Looks more like what the crazy uncle and Euro was showing down in the BoC before lifting up.

[Stratton20]

00z CMC also showing development with the 2nd system, although it keeps the system bottled up in the southern gulf / Boc

[Scott747]

That 6z system is independent of 91l and comes from yet another hybrid/pseudo set-up in the Caribbean. I'd have to look a little closer but I can't find the wave that triggers this one plus it originates more off of SA. The GFS has already been hinting at it but was burying it in the southern BoC so it isn't coming out of nowhere and is in a range that can't be immediately dismissed.

We'll see in the subsequent runs today if it was a one off or continues back to the southern end solution.

Well it took one full day of runs for the GFS to swing back to the original idea of the southern solution....

[davidiowx]

The 00z GEPS splits 91L into two areas with the strongest mean into the mid TX coast and the weaker mean into Florida.

The 06z GEFS has a minimal wave into Florida panhandle.

Still doesn’t look like anything comes of it.

GFS shows another system following Grace’s track while the CMC has a storm hanging out in the BoC in fantasy land.

ICON shows a weak storm in the western Gulf next Friday but wouldn’t count on that yet. No other model support.

[weatherguy425]

The 00z GEPS splits 91L into two areas with the strongest mean into the mid TX coast and the weaker mean into Florida.

The 06z GEFS has a minimal wave into Florida panhandle.

Still doesn’t look like anything comes of it.

GFS shows another system following Grace’s track while the CMC has a storm hanging out in the BoC in fantasy land.

ICON shows a weak storm in the western Gulf next Friday but wouldn’t count on that yet. No other model support.

That is invest 91L’s remaining circulation on the icon

[Texaspirate11]

Sorry to burst bubbles
From our NWS disco on 91L

Based on the current
forecast from the NHC, any Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone development
is expected to end up well off to our east which would keep the system`s
deepest tropical moisture and best dynamics more toward the central
and eastern Gulf waters. The circulation around this system in
combination with a building mid level ridge might actually end up
drying much of the area out during the second half of the week.
Heading into the weekend, will indicate slightly increasing rain
chances, but rains might end up holding off until late on Sunday.

[weatherguy425]

Sorry to burst bubbles
From our NWS disco on 91L

Based on the current
forecast from the NHC, any Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone development
is expected to end up well off to our east which would keep the system`s
deepest tropical moisture and best dynamics more toward the central
and eastern Gulf waters. The circulation around this system in
combination with a building mid level ridge might actually end up
drying much of the area out during the second half of the week.
Heading into the weekend, will indicate slightly increasing rain
chances, but rains might end up holding off until late on Sunday.

I think we were just discussing a complex steering scenario and the evolution of data. No bubbles burst.

[weatherguy425]

That 6z system is independent of 91l and comes from yet another hybrid/pseudo set-up in the Caribbean. I'd have to look a little closer but I can't find the wave that triggers this one plus it originates more off of SA. The GFS has already been hinting at it but was burying it in the southern BoC so it isn't coming out of nowhere and is in a range that can't be immediately dismissed.

We'll see in the subsequent runs today if it was a one off or continues back to the southern end solution.

Well it took one full day of runs for the GFS to swing back to the original idea of the southern solution....

And not quite as buried on the 12Z. What may be happening here - AGAIN - is the tendency for models to initially develop the southern end of the wave axis that is more attached to monsoonal storminess closer to Central America. Where did we see this? With initial Ida guidance, before they correctly forecast development on the northern end of the wave axis. Not that the same scenario plays out here, but we’ll need to see where (if) consolidation occurs AND what ridge orientation is likely to its north late this-coming week.

[Cpv17]

That 6z system is independent of 91l and comes from yet another hybrid/pseudo set-up in the Caribbean. I'd have to look a little closer but I can't find the wave that triggers this one plus it originates more off of SA. The GFS has already been hinting at it but was burying it in the southern BoC so it isn't coming out of nowhere and is in a range that can't be immediately dismissed.

We'll see in the subsequent runs today if it was a one off or continues back to the southern end solution.

Well it took one full day of runs for the GFS to swing back to the original idea of the southern solution....

And not quite as buried on the 12Z. What may be happening here - AGAIN - is the tendency for models to initially develop the southern end of the wave axis that is more attached to monsoonal storminess closer to Central America. Where did we see this? With initial Ida guidance, before they correctly forecast development on the northern end of the wave axis. Not that the same scenario plays out here, but we’ll need to see where (if) consolidation occurs AND what ridge orientation is likely to its north late this-coming week.

Yes, exactly. Ensembles show this scenario with multiple different outcomes.