June 2021:

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Wxman57:

Down to 10% now. No model is predicting development by this weekend (within 5 days). It's late next week where we need to watch the western Caribbean.

[jasons2k]

From our local NWS office - they note that late next week we need to keep a watch:

Unsettled weather remains for the reminder of the week [next week] with periods
of showers and storms as a backdoor cold front approaches and a
trough of low pressure develops over/near the Yucatan Peninsula.
Confidence in the weather pattern this far out continues to be low,
given inconsistencies between model runs. Continue to monitor the
latest forecast and keep an eye on the Tropics as a southwesterly
wave/low pressure may develop over the Gulf towards the end of the
long term period.

[Scott747]

Still long range but almost identical agreement with the euro and gfs and a system developing in the BoC in a week. Epac is a crossover and gfs absorbs an epac system. We can worry about track later as with these gyre setups it could easily remain an epac system.

I mentioned previously that the gfs underwent a significant upgrade in March. Will be a good test as we enter a more mid-range forecast over the coming days.

[CRASHWX]

I think what needs to be the focus is this: If development happens then the upper atmosphere flow will all make this a western Gulf to Central La. type tropical cyclone of some type and strength. But right now its still a BIG if and we certainly can not focus on direction or landfall. 5-7 days before we really have our first clear picture and the henges on the formation of a closed system so the models can grind on it...obviously recon will be a big factor, hurricane hunter and NOAA Jet.

[jasons2k]

One thing is certain: a lot will change over the course of the next week.

That’s about the only thing that’s certain at this point.

[Cpv17]

One thing is certain: a lot will change over the course of the next week.

That’s about the only thing that’s certain at this point.

Yeah, trying to predict where troughs and ridges will be and how atmospheric conditions will turn out is a crapshoot more than 3 or 4 days out.

[Stratton20]

06 GFS is a trend that needs to be watched, not necessarily the location since thats obviously going to change, but it stalls or meanders this potential system off the Texas coast for a few days before making landfall in SE Louisiana , thats the 2nd run in a row thats shows a stall

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs usually east bias and euro is usually west bias

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 yeah except the GFS has been consistently WEST just like the Euro has over the past 5-6 runs

[Cpv17]

The GFS usually overdoes troughing and the Euro usually overdoes ridging.

[jasons2k]

We’ll see if that bias continues on the upgraded GFS.
I have to say, the models are getting scary good compared to years past.

Machine learning is both an awesome and a scary proposition rolled into one.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I know but its something to watch, as well all know that the western gulf has a bad history of slow moving or stalled tropical systems, just something to watch as the GFS has been indicating very weak steering in the past couple of runs

[jasons2k]

Good summary on the summer outlook:

https://spacecityweather.com/heres-the- ... and-texas/

[Stormlover2020]

Just need something to develop, models will make u lose hours of sleep if u keep model watching lol

[Stratton20]

I lost plenty of sleep during last hurricane season, probably gotta feeling once we get to this weekend and beyond im going to lose more sleep tracking whatever becomes of this

[Stormlover2020]

Looks like gfs is going to drop it

[DoctorMu]

Morning update from Wxman57:

Down to 10% now. No model is predicting development by this weekend (within 5 days). It's late next week where we need to watch the western Caribbean.

Plus, Saharan dust is on its way to squash further development.

https://twitter.com/vrb1955/status/1402 ... 24995?s=20

[Cpv17]

SST’s are starting to warm up pretty well along the Texas coast. Seeing some pockets of 28°C now.

[DoctorMu]

Good summary on the summer outlook:

https://spacecityweather.com/heres-the- ... and-texas/

OTOH, the long-range outlooks have blown the forecast for virtually every month ahead in 2021 so far.

[Stratton20]

StormLover its one model run, a few days ago the euro had a run where it stopped showing something and the next run it was back on board, like I side operational model runs dont mean jack right now