January 2021

[TexasMetBlake]

This is the first winter storm watch the NWS has issued in almost 7 years—which interestingly enough Winter Storm Warnings have been issued since then. So those of us closer to Houston, we may end up in a watch or warning yet. In 2017 and 18, no watches were issued but warnings were as the event got underway. I posted this pic to Twitter back on December 15th so add 24 days to the total.

[Cpv17]

Nice trend this afternoon. Temps have trended down to being in the mid 30’s Sunday for much of the day across southeast TX according to the 18z 3km NAM which does a pretty good job with temps.

[Kingwood36]

This is the first winter storm watch the NWS has issued in almost 7 years—which interestingly enough Winter Storm Warnings have been issued since then. So those of us closer to Houston, we may end up in a watch or warning yet. In 2017 and 18, no watches were issued but warnings were as the event got underway. I posted this pic to Twitter back on December 15th so add 24 days to the total.

So this is kinda sorta maybe looking half way decent?

[Cpv17]

This is the first winter storm watch the NWS has issued in almost 7 years—which interestingly enough Winter Storm Warnings have been issued since then. So those of us closer to Houston, we may end up in a watch or warning yet. In 2017 and 18, no watches were issued but warnings were as the event got underway. I posted this pic to Twitter back on December 15th so add 24 days to the total.

So this is kinda sorta maybe looking half way decent?

Not only has it trended colder but possibly further south too.

[Kingwood36]

This is the first winter storm watch the NWS has issued in almost 7 years—which interestingly enough Winter Storm Warnings have been issued since then. So those of us closer to Houston, we may end up in a watch or warning yet. In 2017 and 18, no watches were issued but warnings were as the event got underway. I posted this pic to Twitter back on December 15th so add 24 days to the total.

So this is kinda sorta maybe looking half way decent?

Not only has it trended colder but possibly further south too.

Seee now EVERYBODY would get in on a little something..hopefully this goes through..if not I gotta drive back to kingwood lol

[DoctorMu]

So basically its a wait and see and watch the radar light up when the time comes

aka Nowcasting. That's the way it was in 2017. Timing of the cold core and robustness of the precipitation to knock out that warmnose are major determinants. The heavy precipt in 2017 allowed for a rapid transition into snow.

We shall see.

[DoctorMu]

Polar Vortex Unchained! Ok, yeah, yeah the source...and it's likely to mostly affect east of Texas but...

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-w ... hly_manual

[DoctorMu]

So this is kinda sorta maybe looking half way decent?

Not only has it trended colder but possibly further south too.

Seee now EVERYBODY would get in on a little something..hopefully this goes through..if not I gotta drive back to kingwood lol

That low is digging, digging, digging...

[Kingwood36]

Not only has it trended colder but possibly further south too.

Seee now EVERYBODY would get in on a little something..hopefully this goes through..if not I gotta drive back to kingwood lol

That low is digging, digging, digging...

I'm guessing we want that here?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Seee now EVERYBODY would get in on a little something..hopefully this goes through..if not I gotta drive back to kingwood lol

That low is digging, digging, digging...

I'm guessing we want that here?

Yes

[Cpv17]

Polar Vortex Unchained! Ok, yeah, yeah the source...and it's likely to mostly affect east of Texas but...

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-w ... hly_manual

I’ve been noticing a couple of really strong fronts popping up on the models lately in the medium to long range, but they mainly go well east of Texas. Not liking that! The southeast would get hammered.

[ArizonaAZMeador]

Dont believe the models when the models claim that cold air is going east. In the meantime, have to remain positive about cold and snow. We need Cold,we need Snow and we need it now. Anyone,if you see positive model news,post it

[TexasMetBlake]

Not often you see the HOUSTON forecast office use the word "heavy snow" and "convective snow banding." If the NAM model is correct, we could see a 2018 situation where the event gets underway and all of a sudden a Winter Storm Warning is issued for areas that aren't even currently under a watch.

Also unusual is the fact that the atmosphere will be sufficiently cold enough and deep enough to give us strictly a snow event with little to no sleet expected. I don't know about you but I'm very excited about this.

[Kingwood36]

Soooooo who is going to come out and wager those watches get extended to houston and to the coast

[Rip76]

Indeed getting interesting.

[jabcwb2]

https://abc13.com/traffic/txdot-already ... w/9472891/

Treating roads!

[ArizonaAZMeador]

I will wager my monthly SS check and then I will buy tissue because wxman57 will be crying in snow disbelief.

[ArizonaAZMeador]

Treating roads in NORTH Harris county. What happens when the roads further south get into trouble?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Not often you see the HOUSTON forecast office use the word "heavy snow" and "convective snow banding." If the NAM model is correct, we could see a 2018 situation where the event gets underway and all of a sudden a Winter Storm Warning is issued for areas that aren't even currently under a watch.

Also unusual is the fact that the atmosphere will be sufficiently cold enough and deep enough to give us strictly a snow event with little to no sleet expected. I don't know about you but I'm very excited about this.

Don't do that to my heart strings.


Swoon.

[tireman4]

Not often you see the HOUSTON forecast office use the word "heavy snow" and "convective snow banding." If the NAM model is correct, we could see a 2018 situation where the event gets underway and all of a sudden a Winter Storm Warning is issued for areas that aren't even currently under a watch.

Also unusual is the fact that the atmosphere will be sufficiently cold enough and deep enough to give us strictly a snow event with little to no sleet expected. I don't know about you but I'm very excited about this.

Indeed Blake. As usual, your forecast is worded well. Thank you so much for your input here in our little corner of the world. This is a classic "setup" if it all comes together.