August 2020:

[Scott747]

The TVCN will likely shift to the e. Tossing the Canadian and operational GFS ensembles and the track will possibly shift to the right at 4.

Dependent that recon doesn't find a highly misplaced center...

[Andrew]

I still remain rather skeptical of how fast fourteen will develop with models showing an upper-level shortwave along the western Gulf Coast. GFS is showing 20-30kts of shear for much of the weekend over the gulf with gradual improvement by early next week. The ejection of the shortwave is something we will need to watch because, as it stands that will be the biggest restraint on this storm.

[jasons2k]

The TVCN will likely shift to the e. Tossing the Canadian and operational GFS ensembles and the track will possibly shift to the right at 4.

Dependent that recon doesn't find a highly misplaced center...

You might just be having Josh over for this one.

[mcheer23]

new TVCN is in Central Louisiana...

[Cpv17]

new TVCN is in Central Louisiana...

Just as I suspected. That’s what it showed yesterday too.

[Kingwood36]

So what's making it go toward la instead of here?

[Cpv17]

So what's making it go toward la instead of here?

The fast forward speed, the strength of the system (stronger storm will go more poleward), and a trough. If it would slow down that would give more time for the trough to move out and high pressure to build in but since it’s developing faster and possibly stronger the trough would suck it up.

[don]

Yep was just about to post that the tropical models shifted east. Theres a pretty good spread in models considering were within 5 days of potential impacts, but that's been the case this season so far. I feel pretty confident the storm will hit somewhere form the middle Texas coast to south central Louisiana.
But i don't like the disagreement within the global models. Especially considering that the GFS and CMC ensembles are not agreeing with their operational runs. And the EURO has been pretty consistent on a middle to upper Texas coast landfall,but the EURO sometimes has a west bias with tropical systems. I think by this time Saturday we will probably have a good idea on where this is going. The stronger the system the better chance it will feel the weakness and move into Louisiana. Hopefully tonight and tomorrow's models will start to converge on a solution once they receive the data from the reconnaissance.

[Scott747]

The TVCN will likely shift to the e. Tossing the Canadian and operational GFS ensembles and the track will possibly shift to the right at 4.

Dependent that recon doesn't find a highly misplaced center...

You might just be having Josh over for this one.

Unfortunately my wife is working 7 days a week and 10 hr shifts on the front lines. Gets tested every 5 days or so. Despite distancing at the casa I'm potentially exposed on a daily basis.

Maintaining and wearing ppe during a hurricane would present a challenging experience. lol. One reason we didn't really consider chasing Hanna together...

[Scott747]

Recon isn't very impressive so far....

[unome]

Unfortunately my wife is working 7 days a week and 10 hr shifts on the front lines. Gets tested every 5 days or so. Despite distancing at the casa I'm potentially exposed on a daily basis.

Maintaining and wearing ppe during a hurricane would present a challenging experience. lol. One reason we didn't really consider chasing Hanna together...

hugs & big thank you's to you both for all you do, have so many family members in the same situation - stay safe friend <3

https://youtu.be/7wrlTfwZtkE

[jasons2k]

Unfortunately my wife is working 7 days a week and 10 hr shifts on the front lines. Gets tested every 5 days or so. Despite distancing at the casa I'm potentially exposed on a daily basis.

Maintaining and wearing ppe during a hurricane would present a challenging experience. lol. One reason we didn't really consider chasing Hanna together...

hugs & big thank you's to you both for all you do, have so many family members in the same situation - stay safe friend <3

https://youtu.be/7wrlTfwZtkE

I second that.

And I agree with the earlier comments it's still too early to nail-down anything with TD #14. I expect the NHC to be a bit more conservative and if they make any adjustments to the east, they will be very slight for now. There are a lot of influences at play for the Gulf next week, and we're still a few days from having clarity on what those are.

[srainhoutx]

RECON sampling what may be an eddy well S of the NHC official "center". If that is determined to be the broad "center", changes may lie ahead for the expected track. I have not seen any data from RECON suggesting TD 14 is organizing. A lot of uncertainty ahead and frankly I'm not certain it's truly a TD at this time.

[Scott747]

Unfortunately my wife is working 7 days a week and 10 hr shifts on the front lines. Gets tested every 5 days or so. Despite distancing at the casa I'm potentially exposed on a daily basis.

Maintaining and wearing ppe during a hurricane would present a challenging experience. lol. One reason we didn't really consider chasing Hanna together...

hugs & big thank you's to you both for all you do, have so many family members in the same situation - stay safe friend <3

https://youtu.be/7wrlTfwZtkE

Thanks. She is definitely the warrior in the family. Runs circles around all the males. And we're all tuff old school oilfield Texans, lol.

[Scott747]

Recon is having trouble finding a definitive center. Implications on the quicker nw movement may keep a potential adjustment to the right at 4 muted.

[Stormlover2020]

Stormgeo is little west of nhc on new update

[Scott747]

RECON sampling what may be an eddy well S of the NHC official "center". If that is determined to be the broad "center", changes may lie ahead for the expected track. I have not seen any data from RECON suggesting TD 14 is organizing. A lot of uncertainty ahead and frankly I'm not certain it's truly a TD at this time.

I thought they seemed to be a little quick on pulling the trigger this morning, especially with recon tasked. Surprised when I woke up from a nap with advisories already initiated.

However it's highly unlikely they will downgrade at 4....

[Cpv17]

RECON sampling what may be an eddy well S of the NHC official "center". If that is determined to be the broad "center", changes may lie ahead for the expected track. I have not seen any data from RECON suggesting TD 14 is organizing. A lot of uncertainty ahead and frankly I'm not certain it's truly a TD at this time.

That’s potentially big news.

[DoctorMu]

RECON sampling what may be an eddy well S of the NHC official "center". If that is determined to be the broad "center", changes may lie ahead for the expected track. I have not seen any data from RECON suggesting TD 14 is organizing. A lot of uncertainty ahead and frankly I'm not certain it's truly a TD at this time.

Lack of clarity on the initial conditions means the models are going to stumble around drunkedly for at least another 12-24 hours. Too many variables in the Gulf per Jason...

Stay tuned.

[Cromagnum]

Huge storm down near Sargent. Wish I was getting some of that rain