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Friday Morning email from Jeff Lindner on his tropics update:

93L:

Tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has become better organized overnight with the formation of a 1008mb surface low off the NE coast of Honduras. Convection has been increasing near and to the east of this surface center and overall the system appears to be slowly organizing.



Track:

Various solutions continue to play out in the guidance as is common when a well defined closed surface center is not present. CMC, EURO, NOGAPS, and GFS all indicate a system heading for Texas or Mexico, while the GFDL and HWRF show the system strongly recurving over the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. Feel the GFDL and HWRF and too far east and too deep with the Midwest trough…not to mention they have the system moving NW starting right now which is not the case. EURO has been fairly consistent in taking a tropical storm toward S TX and the CMC (well it is up to its usual mischief of a strong storm heading for S TX and N MX). GFS and NOGAPS bring a weak and disorganized system toward the western Gulf coast. Coordinate HPC/NHC tracks bring a closed surface low into the western Gulf of Mexico by next Tuesday. We no reason as to not split the difference in the guidance with more weight toward the southern and western tracks and less toward the GFDL and HWRF suggesting a potential threat from Louisiana westward to Mexico.



Intensity:

With the exception of the robust CMC, all other guidance keeps the system weak or as a tropical storm. The current likely track suggest a impact on the Yucatan over the weekend which will result in weakening and disorganization. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appears favorable for intensification as water temperatures are warm and upper level winds light. Looks good for a tropical storm at some point and this falls in line with most guidance keeping the system weak, but large over the western Gulf.



Impacts:

Would likely need to start ramping things up in the seas and wind department, but without a defined system of yet, nor any official track from NHC…will wait. All guidance suggest impacts are still at or just beyond 5 days out (Tuesday of next week). Could probably bring seas up over the outer waters starting Monday and spreading them toward the coast on Tuesday, but will hold off on suggesting TS force conditions just yet. Incoming weak front will also be sliding southward early next week and this feature combined with a potential incoming tropical system spells lots of rainfall along the entire TX coast.



Residents are urged to keep updated on the weather over the weekend and be prepared to take any necessary actions by early next week to prepare for the landfall of a tropical system. It would be a good time to review your hurricane plans and have your hurricane supplies fully stocked, if we do not need it this time, we still have a long way to go!

Organizing slowly...

From what I saw on the Rainbow Infrared Satellite in motion a little earlier, that thing still does not have much spin in it if even any at all. Also, if that tropical wave is going to make that turn to the northwest traversing the Yucatan Paninsula into the Gulf of Mexico then it needs to do that some time today or tonight. Do any of you concur with that?

High Res Visible satellite imagery will be the only way to 'see' what happening at the lower levels sleet. Forecasters look for the motion of clouds in the lower levels to determine where any low level circulation is occurring. We will know much more when RECON arrives near the noon hour.

Its proximity to Honduras and Guatemala is, needless to say, the reason why I said that.

srainhoutx wrote:High Res Visible satellite imagery will be the only way to 'see' what happening at the lower levels sleet. Forecasters look for the motion of clouds in the lower levels to determine where any low level circulation is occurring. We will know much more when RECON arrives near the noon hour.

Yes, that would make better sense. Would the High Res Visible satellite imagery be the same as the visible satellite imagery, srainhoutx?

sleetstorm wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:High Res Visible satellite imagery will be the only way to 'see' what happening at the lower levels sleet. Forecasters look for the motion of clouds in the lower levels to determine where any low level circulation is occurring. We will know much more when RECON arrives near the noon hour.

Yes, that would make better sense. Would the High Res Visible satellite imagery be the same as the visible satellite imagery, srainhoutx?

Here is a good one sleet...click on the image and change the amount of images in a loop and speed it up...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

RECON enroute from Kessler AFB Biloxi, MS.

Thanks HCW for that post....let's you know where recon is....

ticka1 wrote:Thanks HCW for that post....let's you know where recon is....

almost like they went out of the way to check out the oil spill and the rig in the GOM

We cannot find any specific LLC here. Unless something changes in the next 3-4 hours, the plane may not be able to close off a well-defined LLC for an upgrade.

Hardcoreweather wrote:

Where did you go to get that map tracking the reconnaissance hurricane hunter air plane, Hardcore?

GRlevelx radar with overlays from http://www.allisonhouse.com/


Looks like they have 2 planes checking out 93L one left MS and one is sampling the environment in the GOM and left Tampa a couple of hours ago

12z HWRF/GFDL continue to insist on the Florida Panhandle.

Might have some decent runs to finally look at by 0z tonight if they happen to close it off this afternoon with recon. Looks 50/50 right now.

They closed it off according to several at Eastern

It's TD 1

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Re ... _Basin.kmz

this kid's amazing http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Originally Posted by Hurricane View Post
2nd recon plane is for this, The one from Tampa is NOAA's Kermit flying the Deepwater letting. They do it once a week, drop radio floats that helps nail the currents for oilcasts.

no west winds on 1st go-round