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svrwx0503 wrote:The 12z GFS would be a nice run should it come true. With the rather strong mid-level trough/ low across Oklahoma digging a bit more south before becoming cut-off would likely give us our first real front as well as keep any tropical system to our east. GFS 2-meter temps show 50 degree temps all the way to the coast with some upper 40's north of I-10 on Wednesday morning (9/29). It should be interesting to see how many times it flip/flops over the next few days.

For some reason I don't believe this will happen.

HGX has noticed the models and made a comment...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A VISITOR IN THE CARIBBEAN ON
DAY 10 (SAT 25TH). ECMWF & GFS SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT TIME (ECMWF A DESERT SW RIDGE & ERN
TROF...GFS AN ERN RIDGE AND WRN TROF).

Looks like we have a new PREDICT designation for the system that the models are developing. Hopefully Scott will have some new updated information for us before long.

This season has been very impressive. Hmmmm. Should be interesting next 2 weeks. When you think the last storm is done and there is a lull, it comes back again. These tropical cyclones are like cockroaches. May as well call them cockroach tropical cyclones.

Lets compare the 12z to the 00z GFS:

12z:




00z:




As you can tell both runs continue to show a Caribbean cruiser and has been for weeks now. What changes each time is what it does in the gulf. The 00z shows a dominating ridge that loosens up at the end to send it north, while the 12z shows a dominating trof that picks it up and sends it to Florida. It of course will change many times, but i just wanted to point out that this looks like a real threat and everyone should keep a close eye on this.

00z GFS 114h:

Looks like the season isn't close to being done:

Florida:

PREDICT PGI46L is now up for the area being discussed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/

srainhoutx wrote:PREDICT PGI46L is now up for the area being discussed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/

Hmm maybe a new topic?


Also we officially have an above normal season:

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 26.7375
12L (Julia) Operational 8.7950
13L (Karl) Operational 1.3200
Total  100.0975

Ed, I think it is a tad too soon to say if this looks like a western or eastern gulf system. Gfs has been flipping between a strong ridge or a strong trof. When was the last time you trusted the 15 day gfs?

Todays 12Z GFS @ 336 hours...

What a site seeing them lined up as such. Igor (Red), Karl (Purple), Julia (Green) and future Lisa and Matthew ?????(Brown)

Todays version of the 12Z GFS La La Land continues to suggest a Gulf storm for late September...with Karl inland, all eyes turn E to the Atlantic...

12Z Euro has the feature at hour 168 in the NW Caribbean...



Hour 192...

I think everyone should start looking in the 168hr range than long range...the CMC wants to bring something into STexas next weekend. Last run was into Galveston....NOGAPS also picking it up.....with all of the lowering pressures in the carib, MJO going favorable I dont like this set-up.....

Totally onboard with next weeks potential GOM threat. We might be approaching late Sept which normally bring TX less threats however this is not a normal hurricane season.

Katdaddy or someone, if you would do us the honor of a new Topic covering the NW Caribbean and Gulf for next week as I think it time to start paying attention closer home once again...with that said the HPC is not impressed...yet...

THE 00 UTC CANADIAN WAS AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING A CYCLONE TO
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE
THU-FRI 24 SEP. THE GFS/ECMWF/RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN
NO DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF...AND THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
PREFERRED.

Edit- Placed in 95L thread

desiredwxgd wrote:95L showing up on the 5-Day. We wait with anticipation.

Perhaps this belongs in the 95L thread?