February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[Mr. T]

Looks like another cold surge arrives the week of Feb 22 and today's 18Z shows sub-tropical moisture arriving at the same time. Model paints snow in Central Texas and possibly into Houston Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Yesterday, the timing was more toward Wed/Thu. There is a consistent signal and based on how "on" this model has been with the last two cold/snow episodes, I wouldn't be surprised if this verfies. Anyone else seeing this?

I'm definitely seeing this.

Luckily we have some support from other global models with this one right now (Euro, UKMET). The pattern we've seen all winter long would dictate a better than normal chance of another winter weather event occuring for SE TX. I'm looking foward to tonight's model runs. Lets hope we can get this ball rollin'

We have seen some extreme blocking in the high latitudes this winter (record breaking negative arctic oscillation), and the past has told us that sometimes extreme blocking episodes can mirror themselves again in the following winter (for examle, 76-77, 77-78). Who knows? Perhaps we'll have another prolonged cold weather next year! Hopefully we could get another active southern stream going, but this is all talk just for fun right now...

[srainhoutx]

Now this is interesting...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

[don]

Now this is interesting...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

Yes definitely, 0z GFS still on board if not a little more aggressive with the cold air and precip than the 18z was...

[txsnowmaker]

I am glad to see the GFS latching on to a colder solution. I do find it curious that in this run, the frezzing line basically stalls out just north of metro Houston between hours 120 and 126 before finally breaking through. However, I probably shouldn't get hung up on the "finer details," as the trends still appear to be going in the right direction (assuming you want wintry precip). Sorry for this repeat question, but what time will the next Euro model be released?

[don]

At around 1 am ,sidenote:FWIW the GFS shows around 1 inch of snow for the northwest half of southeast texas

[Mr. T]

The difference between the 12z GFS at hour 132 and the 0z GFS at hour 120 is pretty ridiculous....

The GFS is a great set up for Central Texas to see some heavy snow (Dallas too), and would also give Houston a chance at snow, and perhaps some accumulation?

We've got something to watch here, for sure... We can iron out the details later.

[Mr. T]

At around 1 am ,sidenote:FWIW the GFS shows around 1 inch of snow for the northwest half of southeast texas

I'm not sure if we should go into these kind of details quite yet... I think the main thing to get out of this is a potential set up to bring a round of snow to the region next week.

I'm just not a big fan of talking about accumulations and who will see how much this far out, especially when this threat is just now beginning to show up on the GFS (the Euro has had it for the past 48 hours).

[sleetstorm]

Now this is interesting...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

srainhoutx and don, those two computer models depict a good sleet storm for southeast Texas next Tueday or Wednesday. It also seems as though the temperature for the high during that day just might be either in the lower 30's or upper 20's.

[Mr. T]

srainhoutx and don, those two computer models depict a good sleet storm for southeast Texas next Tueday or Wednesday. It also seems as though the temperature for the high during that day just might be either in the lower 30's or upper 20's.

It will be either rain, rain / snow mix, or all snow. This kind of setup wouldn't really bring anyone much sleet....

[Mr. T]

I cheated, AccuWx.com PPV, we should see about an inch worth of snow, and it should be snow, but temps about 2º C above freezing suggest not much accumulation.

Again, I ask, why are we looking at such details right now? I'm more interested in the model's handling of the disturbance, its strength, path, and forecast of the upper air before we begin to even talk about accumulating snow for Houston next week...

[srainhoutx]

I cheated, AccuWx.com PPV, we should see about an inch worth of snow, and it should be snow, but temps about 2º C above freezing suggest not much accumulation.

And what have the MOS and MAV guidance offered all season? Always lower the closer to the event. QPF is a question mark at this point. Plenty of time to work out the 'finer details' IMHO.

[Mr. T]

And what have the MOS and MAV guidance offered all season? Always lower the closer to the event. QPF is a question mark at this point. Plenty of time to work out the 'finer details' IMHO.

I agree.

[sleetstorm]

Also of note is that the current snow pack north and notheast of Texas has been nicely melted, not all the way to the Canada/U.S.A. border but still these five days of warming up prior next week's very cold polar tsunami ushers in much much icier temperatures with even a potential at getting a winter weather storm, have again, done a good job in eroding it away. Are the central plains and mid-west forecast to receive more sleet/snow this week/weekend/next week?

[txsnowmaker]

At around 1 am ,sidenote:FWIW the GFS shows around 1 inch of snow for the northwest half of southeast texas

Thanks don. I will be looking out for it. Hopefully some of the more experienced hands at this will put in their two cents when this comes out. On the other hand, maybe it's better to start catching some sleep when possible, just in case this all pans out.

[wxdata]

0z GFS keeping any snowfall well north of here.

[wxdata]

Warning! Do not plan to be in a row boat off the New England coast March 1!!

[TexasMetBlake]

0z GFS keeping any snowfall well north of here.

Dan, that image is so pixilated. There is noway in heck you can tell where the snow line is or isn't. Again, I think it's too far out to call the shots at this point. I'm satisfied that the chance of wintry weather is real and not a 384 hour dream.

[biggerbyte]

0z GFS keeping any snowfall well north of here.

Dan, that image is so pixilated. There is noway in heck you can tell where the snow line is or isn't. Again, I think it's too far out to call the shots at this point. I'm satisfied that the chance of wintry weather is real and not a 384 hour dream.

I'm not sure I would classify that as well north anyway. That graphic looks mighty close to me.

[don]

Just when i thought the models were starting to agree the European switched to a weaker and warmer scenario while the GFS still advertises a winter storm for Texas... :/ Local NWS explains the situation pretty good...

LONG RANGE...YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS MINE. THE 18Z AND 00Z RUN OF
THE GFS IS RATHER FAST WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT PAINTS
A MUCH COLDER SCENARIO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
TUES WITH CLEARING SKIES WED/THU. THE 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTED THE GFS
WITH THIS COLDER SOLUTION. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN THE 12Z RUN AND MUCH SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A WEAKER TROUGH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND FAVORS THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF. THE UKMET
FAVORS THE FASTER GFS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW!!! IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT... THERE COULD AGAIN BE LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR
SOUTH AS HOUSTON ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HAVE LEFT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER. FEEL IT IS BEST TO
WAIT FOR A CONSENSUS TO BUILD BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

[Portastorm]

Nice work by HGX in laying that out. Will be interesting to see if today's 12z Euro stays with the 0z solution or goes back to what it showed yesterday.

Meanwhile, what a forecast dilemma: the best scoring computer models (the Euro and the UKMET) this winter are in complete disagreement.