JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[srainhoutx]

MIMIC-TPW still suggests 2.5 inch PW amounts are heading our way.



The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Sunday has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall along the Texas Coast.

[unome]

MIMIC-TPW still suggests 2.5 inch PW amounts are heading our way.

The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Sunday has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall along the Texas Coast.

have been watching their TPW all week, they've made fantastic upgrades to it

from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw

to http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2

and now http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday-Tuesday over much of SE TX.

Tropical wave over the southern Gulf of Mexico with move NW and into the TX coast late Saturday into Sunday along with a large plume of deep tropical moisture. PWS values of 1.7-1.9 inches today will surge to 2.3-2.6 inches on Sunday indicating a very moist air mass will be in place. Expect scattered storms both Friday and Saturday will become numerous on Sunday and Monday. Waves of heavy rainfall will progress inland from the Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, but where any training may develop will determine where the highest rainfall amounts will be found. Expect rainfall to continue into Tuesday as the tropical wave axis slowly moves into central TX.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches look possible mainly along and south of I-10 with amounts of 1-3 inches NW of a line from Hempstead to Lake Livingston. Isolated higher totals are almost certain and can be as high as 8-10 inches, but where these higher totals occur is impossible to determine at this range. Models have been slowly converging on the idea of most of the rainfall occurring near the coast and just inland and this is certainly a good possibility in such air masses which like to focus their rainfalls near the coast or offshore and inland areas sometimes do not see much activity.

Greatest period for heavy rainfall appears to be Sunday and Monday with the formation of a 20-30kt level low jet which will help to feed sustained convection over the area. Low level jet would also help to focus activity into bands or lines which would increase the training potential…but storm motions of 15-20mph may negate sustained heavy rainfall over one certain area for a period of time.

Hourly rainfall rates on Sunday and Monday could easily exceed 2-3 inches and result in rapid street flooding and rises on area creeks and bayous.

As grounds saturate, greater amounts of run-off will be generated and rises on creeks and bayous will become increasing fast.

Marine:
Long fetch ESE/SE winds of 20-30kts will arrive into the waters late Saturday and continue into Monday. Seas will build into the 5-7 foot range on Saturday and 9-11 feet on Sunday with numerous showers, thunderstorms, and squalls. Increasing long period swells support wave and tidal run-up along the Gulf facing beaches with total water levels likely in the 2.5-3.5 feet range by Sunday.

[Cromagnum]

I'm going to be very sad if we don't even get a couple inches of rain from this.

[Electric Lizard]

I'm going to be very sad if we don't even get a couple inches of rain from this.

Agreed, but watch what you wish for.

[jasons2k]

Lots of convection off the Yucatan. Looks like a little wave was spit out of the ITCZ and it's trying to sharpen up. There's another one down north of Panama, too.

[srainhoutx]

Personally I believe we have a couple of weeks of unsettled weather ahead and that should do some damage to the drought conditions as we head into July. The MJO and a robust CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave) take the lid off the atmosphere allowing for storms to develop almost daily. That second Tropical Wave nearing the Yucatan should arrive mid next week and potentially bring more rainfall chances toward the end of next week.

[stormlover]

I gotta feeling this stuff this weekend could be a bust for us....models trending more south

[Ounce]

I guess the sales forecasts for car wash businesses will be down over the next couple of weeks.

[srainhoutx]

Well well...it's back...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula is associated
with a surface trough. While significant development of this system
is not anticipated, heavy rain and strong gusty winds are occurring
across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and will overspread the central
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and reach portions of the Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts by Sunday. For more details on this
system please see products issued by your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Rip76]

What?

[mcheer23]

What?

Secondary tropical wave thats near Cancun right now has a 10 percent chance of development.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF has a very sharp trough attempting to close off a surface low as it approaches the Middle TX Coast Sunday morning near Matagorda Bay. This run of the Euro is the sharpest trough I've seen all week via the ECMWF.

[stormlover]

So what is ur gut telling u srain?? Could we get a depression out of it ?

[djmike]

Wait? What? ....Is this a diff area or the same one we've been watching? I thought it was already in the GOM. Am I missing something? It also looks to take a path more northward towards Hou/Bmt and SWLA! This going to confuse a lot of folks.

[stormlover]

Different system

[srainhoutx]

So what is ur gut telling u srain?? Could we get a depression out of it ?

Levi Cowan has an excellent thread on twitter going about this feature and that he wouldn't be surprised to Cyclogensis just prior to the trough crossing the Coast on Sunday. About 20 minute later, the NHC mentioned it again at 2:00 PM EDT in their TWO. Look at the outflow. This feature looks far better than 91L ever did...

[tireman4]

From Brooks Garner....

[mcheer23]

Would not be shocked to see development chances go up.

[djmike]

So this one could give us some hefty rains Wed - Fri? The gulf system is the rains for Sun-Mon? Am I understanding this right?