January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
506 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 506 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL
NEAR FRESNO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...WESTERN PEARLAND...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
CITY...SOUTH HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA
PARK...JACINTO CITY...NORTHWESTERN MANVEL...ASTRODOME AREA...
GREATER FIFTH WARD...FOURTH WARD...FRESNO...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...
SECOND WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...GREATER HOBBY AREA...DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON...GREATER HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON.

[BigThicket]

Ok...starting to feel like a bit of a training event! Please say not!

[Heat Miser]

Pea size hail near FM 528 and I45 about ten ago.

[BigThicket]

I just had 2 inches of rain in like 30 minutes and pea sized hail here just off Hwy 69 and Hwy 326 about 25 miles north of Beaumont.

[unome]

one heck of a lightning show http://www.met.tamu.edu/ciams/lma/index.html

[Ounce]

Pea-sized hail Katy Freeway and Chimney Rock with a good ol' fashioned frog strangler.

[wxman57]

1/2" to 1" hail in Westbury, just off Hillcroft 1 mile south of Bray's Bayou.

[Ounce]

It's now moved on with the nice lightning occurring, presently. Also cooler than 4 degree drop shown on the Weatherbug site near my home.

I'm ready for another one!!!!

[unome]

quite a few hail reports http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/reports/

loop http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-HHC-1-48

[srainhoutx]

Pea sized hail in NW Harris County with the earlier storms. Seeing reports of Tennis ball sized hail out of Walker County. Numerous other reports across the Metro Area.

[unome]

check out the hail pics on HGX's Twitter feed

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/with_replies

[BigThicket]

Thunderstorm with rotation and reported damage around the Bevil Oaks area to and through the Lumberton Area. Don't know if a rotation actually reach the ground or it was straight line winds but a Tornado warning was issued at about 7:45pm...any help on their Srain, Wxman anybody have any additional info????

[DoctorMu]

We were at Hobby around 5:30 pm dropping off family. Not surprised by the reports. This cell was just plain nasty. Lots up draft, shear, evidence of cell rotation. One awesome wall cloud.

[srainhoutx]

After a noisy night with a lot of storm reports across SE Texas/SW Louisiana we return to a calm and cool weather pattern for a few days. Still looks like a light freeze may be possible well inland tonight with a chance of a bit more of the first freeze of the season for IAH early Monday before high clouds and a series of Pacific storms begin to impact our sensible weather. The overnight ensembles generally agree that a strong shot of colder Arctic air pushes South through the Plains late this coming work week, but some timing issues as to how quickly the cold front pushes S due to a rather strong storm system near New Mexico/West Texas late Friday. Looks like another Coastal wave develops mid next week bringing a return of showers across the Middle and Upper Texas Coast on East into Louisiana. We will watch the trends next week to see if a bigger Winter Storm organizes across the Desert SW/Northern Mexico that could possibly usher in our first real shot of colder modified Arctic air of the season.

01092016 Day 4 to 5 QPF 95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

Day 11+ Super Ensemble Blend Analogs:

01092016 Day 11+ GEFS Super 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EST SAT JAN 09 2016

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 12 2016 - 12Z SAT JAN 16 2016

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THROUGH DAY 4 (14/00Z-14/06Z)...THE 9/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND
UKMET WERE CERTAINLY DEEPER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE
SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF MAINE---BUT EVERYTHING SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME SCALE FROM WEST TO EAST TO INCORPORATE
SOME 9/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS INTO THE NATIONAL FORECAST.
ALONG WITH THE 9/00Z NAEFS AND/OR GEFS MEANS AT/BEYOND
14/12Z---THE ECENS MEANS WERE UTILIZED TO HANDLE THE REMAINDER OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK---WHAT ACTUALLY TRANSPIRES DURING THE
TRANSITION HAS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY 'HANGING IN THE
BALANCE'. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOLLOWS A 'SOUTHERN STREAM
DOMINANCE' THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD---WITH SEPARATION FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM --- BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND DELMARVA
ALONG 40N LATITUDE.

BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 6...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER
WITH RESPECT TO THE CHARACTER OF THE PACIFIC FLOW...ITS SHORTWAVE
DETAILS ENTERING THE WEST COAST ... CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE OFFERS A MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FLOW TRANSITION FOR THE GREAT
LAKES...GULF COAST AND NORTHEAST. AND THE 9/00Z ECMWF OFFERS THE
BIGGEST RUN-TO-RUN 'CHANGE' OF THE 4 PRIMARY MODEL GUIDANCE
PACKAGES (GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET INCLUDED).

FOR NOW...BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE DIFFERENCES AND
IMPLICATIONS/CONCERNS HEADING INTO DAY 6--- PHASING OR
LACK-THERE-OF --- BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET
AXES. THE 9/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF DO A DECENT JOB
WITH THE NATURE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW (THE SUBTROPICAL JET)
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL MEXICO---BUT
THE 9/00Z ECMWF ESPECIALLY...MAINTAINS A MUCH WEAKER NORTHERN
STREAM WESTERLY 250MB SOLUTION ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF
CANADIAN BORDER. AND ALTHOUGH --- THE NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO
HOLD THE KEY TO THE LATTER HALF OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD---WITH
PHASED JET OR SPLIT-FLOW (SEPARATED JET STREAMS)--- DETERMINING
THE OUTCOME OF BROAD AND DEEP COLD ADVECTION AND SENSIBLE WEATHER
EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER---USING
THE 9/00Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION FOR DETAILS (CERTAINLY
BEYOND DAY 4) SEEMS TO BE THE MORE QUESTIONABLE OUTCOME DURING
THIS WEST-TO-EAST MID-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITION.

IF THERE IS A 'RENEWED' EL NINO APPROACH TO THE FLOW (MY OPINION)
AND HAS GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT (AT THE MOMENT) --- IT IS WITH THE
CONSENSUS-DRIVEN SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG 30N
LATITUDE FROM COAST TO COAST. AND WHAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY 'SPINS
OUT' OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD BE --- WHERE TO WATCH AND
MONITOR AS IT WILL ORIGINATE --- BE THE SOURCE REGION FOR --- MUCH
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AND DAY7+ SENSIBLE WEATHER.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND BRIEF WARM ADVECTION UP GLIDE --- FOR WINTER
CONDITIONS --- AS EXITING SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATES ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE BETWEEN DAY 3-5.

THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE THE WETTEST PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD---WITH THE WEST COAST A SECONDARY AREA OF
ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ROUND
OUT THE TEMPERATURE HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER 48---AND BELOW
NORMALS READING FOR MID-JANUARY --- BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

VOJTESAK

[BigThicket]

Bastardi just publicly said weather going nation wide to the coldest since 1987-88 advising his clients on Nstural Gas stock. "Nailed the cold last four years"..."that's why they pay me...miss it people loose money and you get fired" LOL...wow that's kinda like trying to coach in the NFL! Your job riding on a lot of factors most of which are out of your control!

[vci_guy2003]

Bastardi is a lunatic LOL

[BigThicket]

Bastardi is a lunatic LOL

Oh he's a nut case but he is just a nut case that's right a lot about the weather and in the private sector is very successful. I don't think anybody ever introduced him to ADHD meds! LMBO

[cperk]

Bastardi is a lunatic LOL

I disagree he's not afraid to put himself out on a limb,but he's a good met.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I love Bastardi because he calls out the Global Warming statist clowns with facts and reason.

[DoctorMu]

The cold air is overperforming in CLL (not uncommon with shallow, dense layers), slipping toward 40°F and 30°s... and that tongue of polar air (≥Ice Bowl) is sliding through NE. Should be interesting to see if projected temps are downgraded in TX.