http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
000
FXUS64 KHGX 221115
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
515 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED FREEZE WARNING FOR NE QUARTER OF SE TX AND EXTENDED WIND
ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON COUNTY THROUGH 15Z. 43
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND GONE CALM OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROPPED 6 DEGREES IN 2 HOURS AT CROCKETT.
CROCKETT AND ONALASKA ARE CURRENTLY 32 DEGREES AND NEW WAVERLY IS
33 SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SHORT TERM FREEZE WARNING VALID
THROUGH 14Z. WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT KGLS AND WILL EXTEND THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING BUT THEN
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THIS FEATURE
WAS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. COLD TEMPERATURES PREVAIL WITH CROCKETT
DOWN TO 36 DEGREES AND HUNTSVILLE AND COLLEGE STATION DOWN TO 37
DEGREES. NOT MUCH OF A WARM UP TODAY WITH COOLER 850 MB TEMPS.
MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S BUT AT LEAST
THE AIR MASS IS DRY SO THERE WILL BE FULL SUN TODAY...AND LIGHTER
WINDS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
GALVESTON COUNTY THRU 12Z AS THE COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE
WARMER BAY/GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS RELAX LATER TODAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE AND MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
THE COOLEST READINGS SO FAR THIS AUTUMN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
QUITE BULLISH WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUT DEW PTS/DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS AND SOIL MOISTURE REVEAL WARMER TEMPS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME FEEL THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NE
QUARTER OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIBERTY LINE FROM
06-13Z MONDAY. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS LINE MAY ALSO BRIEFLY
REACH 32 DEGREES FOR A TIME BUT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND LIMITED
DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPS PRECLUDES A FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO
THE REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL ON TUESDAY AS
A WEAK S/WV MOVES ACROSS OK. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS DEEPEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME SW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WEAKENING AND RETROGRADING BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IT`S JUST KIND OF A MESSY PATTERN WED-FRI WITH DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THANKSGIVING LOOKS CLOUDY...HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...NOT A
WASH OUT BUT A WARM CLOUDY DAY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SEVERAL FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO CROSS SE TX EITHER FRI OR SAT WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSISTENT
AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
MEXICAN COAST ON FRI/SAT (GFS IS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF) AND
THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRAWN UP AND OVER TEXAS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSES SE TX. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME
PART OF TEXAS WILL GET A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY
RAIN NEXT FRI-SUN. STILL WAITING FOR A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
WILL STICK WITH 50 POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS TREND MUCH COLDER IN THE
WAKE OF NEXT FRIDAYS FRONT WITH HIGHS NEXT SAT/SUN ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. 43
MARINE...
WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
THE WINDS WERE DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL LOWER THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT 3 AM. WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH SUNRISE
AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE THERE UNTIL 6 AM. BY THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCING WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS. EXPECT ALL ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED BY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN THE LONGER TERM...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SEA FOG TO FORM
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S. WATER TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGED
FROM 66 AT THE NORTH JETTY IN THE GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE...TO 71
AT BUOY 42035 /20 NM EAST OF GALVESTON/...AND TO 76 AT BUOY 42019
/60 NM SOUTH OF FREEPORT. WILL PROBABLY NEED A MORE EASTERLY WIND
DIRECTION FOR FOG FORMATION GIVEN THE WATER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
AS OF NOW...THAT IS NOT FORECAST TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER GALVESTON BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITHIN 20 NM. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD STAY AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 33 61 45 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 57 36 62 46 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 57 45 61 57 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HOUSTON...MADISON...POLK...TRINITY...WALKER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43