September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[srainhoutx]

Boom goes the QPF Forecast...

[Kludge]

Boom goes the QPF Forecast...

Wow That 3-day looks better than any 10-day we've seen in a long while

[Portastorm]

5 inches for Austin!! Be still my beating heart.

[srainhoutx]

From NWS Brownsville...continuing that 'pirate theme'...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SHIVER ME TIMBERS! THIS
BE ONE ANNOYING FORECAST TO CRACK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT
IN THE LONG TERM BRINGS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
ASSORTED PIECES ARE AS FOLLOWS: FIRST...THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BRING ALONG THE
FIRST COLD FRONT TO CENTRAL TEXAS. SECOND: THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES ON IT WNW TREK
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIRD...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MANUEL
ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS AT THE SAME TIME.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE TROUGH PICKING UP THE GULF
DISTURBANCE TO THE ADVANCING TROUGH LEAVING BEHIND THE GULF
DISTURBANCE AND A PORTION OF THE ENERGY FROM MANUEL ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE POPS FOR SATURDAY ARE FURTHER
INCREASED TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT...WITH SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FORECAST DEPENDS HIGHLY ON
WHERE THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION
FINALLY TRACKS. WITH THE LOW LURKING JUST OFF T THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...THE FRONT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. PLUS WITH ANY RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM MANUEL IN THE VICINITY...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE NUDGED
THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

[TexasBreeze]

The forecasts for this event sure look more promising than previous ones. Flash flood watches already being issued for Corpus Christi area...

[Kludge]

Ple e e e e ase not this time... !!

[Portastorm]

EWX in its afternoon AFD mention the upped rainfall totals along with even some possible FFWs later in the period! They also allude to the front slowing down as it reaches the coast as srainhoutx has been mentioning.

--------------------
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
332 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z RAOB DATA SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
2.3" AT KDRT WITH 2.1" AT KCRP. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A STEADY SUPPLY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. THROUGH TONIGHT... THE INITIAL AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEL
RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR ONE HALF INCH IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ON
FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF MANUEL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND GIVEN AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WE WILL OPT FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE WATCH WILL COVER VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...KINNEY AND
MAVERICK COUNTIES AND WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WE HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...SO EXPECT SOME OF
THE HEAVIER TOTALS ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION.

IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...SPECIFICALLY THE HILL COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S 12Z ECMWF...THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND... WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR WHERE WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 - 1.0 INCH
OF RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS MODEL WANTS TO HANG ON TO
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME... AM INCLINED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF GIVEN IT/S
CONSISTENCY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

[mckinne63]

Light rain showers off and on most of the afternoon in Stafford today I was getting my windshield replaced in my car, wouldn't you know it decided to rain. Winds are whipping up again here, looks like perhaps a few more showers.

I do hope we get a more wide spread more long lasting rain event this weekend.

[SusieinLP]

Windy here but just a few drops so far. Crossing my fingers this forecast comes true

[Andrew]

Now all we need to have is that trough stall a little farther to that north and bump some of those 7'' bulls-eyes north.

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/19/13 2202Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 2132Z VOGT
BLENDED TPW THROUGH 1936Z
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT... ONGOING MOD TO HVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THERE HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD COOL CLOUD TOPS ACROSS WRN TX ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL. AT 1730Z,
MANUEL WAS CENTERED AT 25.1N/107.4W WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-TO-UL
FLOW STREAMING ACROSS TX. THIS UL FLOW PATTERN IS HELPING USHER HIGH
AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO TX. MOISTURE IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED
IN FROM THE SE (FROM THE WRN GULF) ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO CONVERGE OVER
TX. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT THROUGH 1936Z INDICATES PW VALUES OF 1.8-2.2"
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE. THOUGH, THE
MOST ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IS LOCATED INVOF TERRELL COUNTY AND PTS TO THE
NNE WHERE PW VALUES ARE 200% ABOVE NORMAL.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2205-0305Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SINCE MANUEL IS NOT MOVING MUCH DUE TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY UL TROF TO ITS WEST, EXPECT MOD TO AT TIMES HVY RAINFALL
TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE DISCUSSION AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SIT OVER TX. SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS
AIDING IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS OF LATE BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
RAIN RATES TO RANGE FROM 0.5-1.5"/HR WITH 1.5-2.5" TOTALS OVER 3-HRS
PER RECENT MESONET OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[Rip76]

Would you look at that.

[djjordan]

This looks to be turning into quite the active weekend for us here in the whole state!!! This weather board should be hopping throughout this event. Looks like all the parameters are coming together. Crossing fingers for that much needed widespread rain.

[srainhoutx]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
723 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

GMZ330-335-350-355-200830-
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
723 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 1 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE BAYS AND 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE. AT
THESE LEVELS...WATER MAY APPROACH THE LOWEST AND MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
BEACHFRONT ROADS RIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH WINDS COULD THEN BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WHICH
COULD FURTHER CAUSE A RISE IN TIDE LEVELS. COASTAL RESIDENTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

[kayci]

drove ALOT in heavy rains today here in Galv. Co. look forward to more!

[Houstonkid]

I will NOT complain about this event but I was hoping it would be a little more spread out. It hasn't even started unfolding yet and I already have 2 " here at Clay/Mason. Good luck and hope everyone benefits from this.

[Rip76]

A little north and west to my liking.
Looks like that front will meet it in Ft. Worth.

[SusieinLP]

My husband drove home from Katy and said rain was crazy....gets to our neighborhood. NADA. We have not had much more than a few drops here and there since August

[jeff]

careful what you wish for!

Starting to look like a fairly classic flash flood event with the front slowing more and more and possibly stalling with both EPAC tap and Gulf tap and red flags raised with PWS at +2SD.

[TexasBreeze]

Reminder: Mid October 1994 had a similar setup with a pacific tc and front combo. This one also adds gulf moisture indirectly from invest 95l. It's nighttime now and lots of rain still flowing off gulf.