February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

[cristina99]

yes noticing here too at 610 and 290 that sun is trying to peek out just a little. I braved the wet weather and small showers this morning. Am still hoping that this thing blows through and is out of there by noon. Those that watch the models faithfully, is it still going to blow through here before 4:30? I didn't come in with a friend since KHOU says it will clear out by 2 p.m.

[srainhoutx]

HGX releases prelim report for the Shepherd tornado on Monday as an EF1...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=severe_2013_02_18

[texoz]

Received 0.02 at Camp Mabry in Austin. Another forecast bust in Central Texas.

Have received 0.36 for February, and only 0.42 since January 10th. This summer could be brutal AGAIN if we don't get some decent rain between now and June.

On a related note, we're under a red flag warning today. I don't ever recall hearing this warning as often as I have over the last few years. I lived in Southern California for a while, and heard it often there, but not growing up in Texas. Not like this.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
954 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

TXZ162-211630-
LEON TX-
954 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
LEON COUNTY

AT 954 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF JEWETT...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE JEWETT AND CENTERVILLE.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

[sambucol]

Is our area going to get anymore rain or thunderstorms or are we in the clear now?

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EAST TX...MUCH OF
LA...AND SOUTHERN MS...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM MO SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF TX/LA/MS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ATOP A COLD/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTH OF LFK TO SOUTH OF LCH. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN RAPID MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HEATING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS PRIMARILY PASSING NORTH OF THIS REGION. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN A
RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG...PROVIDING A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
RISKS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/MOSIER.. 02/21/2013

[srainhoutx]

Is our area going to get anymore rain or thunderstorms or are we in the clear now?

It's pouring here in NW Harris County with the pre frontal trough. The Pacific front is still a couple hours out.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1039 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

TXZ163-164-176>178-196-198-211730-
BRAZOS TX-WALKER TX-SAN JANCINTO TX-MADISON TX-TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-
GRIMES TX-
1039 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRAZOS...WALKER...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JANCINTO...MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY...HOUSTON
AND NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CST...

AT 1034 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES
WEST OF GRAPELAND TO BRYAN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CROCKETT TO 6 MILES NORTH OF COLLEGE STATION...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...CROCKETT...MADISONVILLE...TRINITY...GRAPELAND...
LOVELADY...RIVERSIDE...KENNARD...MIDWAY...LATEXO AND OAKHURST.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211653Z - 211830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FOR POTENTIAL GROWTH INTO DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT MAY WARRANT A
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE BY MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE AROUND 45 SE CRS
WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING SEWD TO NEAR BPT AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD TO CLL. PERSISTENT WARM SECTOR BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF DEEPENING AND SEPARATING INTO MORE DISCRETE
CONVECTION IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AS THE SPATIAL GAP BETWEEN THIS AND
THE COLD FRONT HAS DECREASED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE IS
CONCERN THAT A SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD FORM BEFORE CROSSING THE WARM
FRONT AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ABOVE A COLDER/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2 SAMPLED IN THE HGX
VWP...A TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL N
OF THE FRONT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 02/21/2013


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[spadilly]

looks like the cap is starting to break.

Starting to see rotation in storms near Crockett and out west of Katy

[wxman57]

A grazing event for central Houston, it appears. Heavier storms are passing to the north. Storms west of Katy are not particularly impressive yet. Maybe we can get 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain across the city.

[djjordan]

I'm not overly impressed with this system down here in this area, but I'll bet Louisiana has some trouble later today. The Winter Storm over the plains is however very impressive with this system.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

TXZ164-177>179-199-200-211815-
WALKER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-LIBERTY TX-SAN JANCINTO TX-TRINITY TX-
POLK TX-
1136 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...EASTERN
MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY...SAN JANCINTO...SOUTHWESTERN
TRINITY AND SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CST...

AT 1130 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STORMS FROM LIVINGSTON TO CONROE...WITH INDIVIDUAL
STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...CLEVELAND...LIVINGSTON...WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
SHEPHERD...PORTER HEIGHTS...ONALASKA...CUT AND SHOOT...COLDSPRING...
POINT BLANK...WOODLOCH...NORTH CLEVELAND AND GOODRICH.

[Cromagnum]

Not that I want tornadic storms or hail, but these damn caps manage to persist through every weather event that tries to form up around these parts. I feel really bad for the folks in Austin and surrounding areas.

[txflagwaver]

~sigh~ again...much ado about nothing...was hoping for some really good rain today

[wxman666]

Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
TXC291-373-407-212000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0004.130221T1911Z-130221T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
111 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 108 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9
MILES EAST OF CLEVELAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO...NORTHERN LIBERTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3033 9468 3022 9493 3036 9506
3073 9459 3049 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 235DEG 40KT 3034 9492

$$

[srainhoutx]

While some missed out today, attention turns to the next storm system dropping into the Desert SW this weekend. The non American operational/ensembles are very bullish on a very impressive Southern tracking Storm that will begin to affect our Region late Sunday and continue into next week. While there remains a lot of uncertainty, there are rather strong indications that the storm track will be much further S and cross Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley Region as well a the potential for a strong Western Gulf low forming along the stalled boundary just offshore of the Texas/Louisiana Coast. The HPC continues to add additional Winter Storm RECON missions from Anchorage to sample the NE Pacific ahead of this very progressive and active pattern we are in that may well linger into the first part of March. We will see.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1210 PM EST THU 21 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 --
A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 23/0000Z
B NOAA9 16WSC TRACK23
C. 22/1930Z
D. 18 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 23/0600Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE TRACK 23
A. P-23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 24/0000)
3. REMARKS: THE TRACK FOR TODAY'S MISSION HAS BEEN
CHANGED FROM TRACK 22 TO TRACK 8. DETAILS BELOW:
A. P-8/ DROP 7(47.3N 172.0W)/ 22/0000Z

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[Portastorm]

Not that I want tornadic storms or hail, but these damn caps manage to persist through every weather event that tries to form up around these parts. I feel really bad for the folks in Austin and surrounding areas.

I've honestly lost count now on how many frontal passages we've seen here in Austin in the last six months with no rain to speak of. We're either too far removed from the upper level energy, like today ... or we're too dry and the storms blow up to our east (like last week's front). Today, while some reporting locations had roughly 0.05 of rain, the southern half of the county received 0.00.

Let's hope the non-American guidance for next week is on to something and we have a real SOUTHERN storm system to deal with ... one which would provide ample liquid "happiness."

[srainhoutx]

Let's hope the non-American guidance for next week is on to something and we have a real SOUTHERN storm system to deal with ... one which would provide ample liquid "happiness."

Fingers crossed, Portastorm. Fingers cross...

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[jasons2k]

.34" here bringing my 2013 total to 6.30"

Not bad, not bad at all