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singlemom wrote: Thanks again....and many thanks to all the folks who make this such a great forum. I really appreciate the time you guys take to keep us informed and break things down. Thanks.

No problem. I suspect the night crew will be wide awake for the new model guidance. Time for me to get some shut eye. It looks like a long week ahead.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... s_loop.php

If it is, it ain't off by much. Perhaps slightly due north of closest "Tropical Point" forecasted by NHC

The disco mentioned ne reforming center, but no real track changes. Bring it to 80 mph hurricane before approach to mid TX coast.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

weatherguy425 wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... s_loop.php

If it is, it ain't off by much. Perhaps slightly due north of closest "Tropical Point" forecasted by NHC

Besides not knowing how to cut and paste,it is like old 56k dial up speed. In GLS, trusting others for model and satellite updates...

As in I don't know how to cut and paste?

weatherguy425 wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

weatherguy425 wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... s_loop.php

If it is, it ain't off by much. Perhaps slightly due north of closest "Tropical Point" forecasted by NHC

Besides not knowing how to cut and paste,it is like old 56k dial up speed. In GLS, trusting others for model and satellite updates...

As in I don't know how to cut and paste?

No, Ed is on his Ipad he doesn't know how to copy and paste. We will keep you updated Ed don't worry.

The fly in the ointment for me is my wife and child are coming back the Houston from San Pedro Sula, Honduras on, get this, June 27 at 3:30 pm. Lovely. Like Larry Cosgrove stated, I want to see the runs on Sunday to get a better handle on this.

Ahh, alright. It's okay Ed! The latest frame wasn't updated until 8:15 anyway ( I believe).

Scott747 wrote:lol

You had to know with Stewart on the desk it would be a 'bullish' forecast.

I think Stewart writes a great forecast.It did'nt seem bullish to me at all,but it was very informative.

Yeah, Stacey Stewart is one of the best in the business. Always love his write ups.

perk wrote:

Scott747 wrote:lol

You had to know with Stewart on the desk it would be a 'bullish' forecast.

I think Stewart writes a great forecast.It did'nt seem bullish to me at all,but it was very informative.

It's well known that Stewart writes a more 'bullish' and detailed type of forecast that over the years can get many of the less knowledgeable folks worked up. 'Bullish' in this case was making it a cane sooner than expected.

It's not a slight against Stacy at all...

I second that! We need a "like" button. It's very reassuring to have so many knowledgable folks here that are willing to share their expertise. Then when I share the info with others, it makes me look like I'm the smart one! I don't go anywhere else for my weather info, so thanks everyone!

Julie

JulesC wrote:I second that! We need a "like" button. It's very reassuring to have so many knowledgable folks here that are willing to share their expertise. Then when I share the info with others, it makes me look like I'm the smart one! I don't go anywhere else for my weather info, so thanks everyone!

Julie

We have very knowledgeable pros and amateurs on this board and I think everyone has done an incredible job as of lately informing the public. Keep up the good work everyone.


Also latest water vapor shows an explosion of convection as of late.

Doors open, lets see if she takes it.

Hopefully tomorrow will give us more insight with overnight development and new data for the model runs.

Would like to remind everyone not to focus on the center of the cone...as was not done so well this evening by some of the TV folks. DO NOT make those Ike and Rita mistakes again! A storm is not a point and the effects especially with this large of a system will be far reaching.

Of course, if tonight's 0Z GFS run so far is to be believed, this will be more of a concern to those in the Eastern Gulf/Florida.

GFS convective feedback issues again

If this thing goes into Florida it isn't the way the gfs says it will. It wants to push it west but the vorticity east of the east coast pulls it north.

If this thing goes into Corpus what effect would the Houston/Galveston area receive?

jeff wrote:Would like to remind everyone not to focus on the center of the cone...as was not done so well this evening by some of the TV folks. DO NOT make those Ike and Rita mistakes again! A storm is not a point and the effects especially with this large of a system will be far reaching.

Jeff, I think it would be a good idea to update folks on the new surge~vs~SS scale information that was issued this year. If you have the time, that kind of input would valuable to those not familiar with the changes.

Yeah, I'm just a little confused on what everything has been said recently. Mainly with the GFS model...