April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?

[Katdaddy]

Upsteam development NE of Victoria in Wharton and SW FT Bend County. Small bow just SE of Victoria looking impressive.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
801 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

TXZ235-160145-
JACKSON TX-
801 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INEZ...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDNA...GANADO AND LA WARD.

[Rip76]

Seems like it's been forever since we had a night event...

[tireman4]

Streamer showers with thunder coming our way in Humble....

[Andrew]

Current view of the big picture:

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

[Ptarmigan]

Seems like it's been forever since we had a night event...

Yes, it has been. I notice some years have more night events than others. I have wondered about that. I notice when night time storms happen they tend to happen between 2 to 4 AM. Some years I remember the storms almost always came around 3 or 4 AM.

[Ptarmigan]

Which I prefer. Looks like Victoria could be the area to watch. If that complex holds together or grows it will be a fun night.

Thunder will wake me up.

[sleetstorm]

Why do you favor nighttime thunderstorms over daytime ones, Cloud2ground? I would think that nighttime thunderstorms would be more hazardous or life-threatening, particularly if they are producing tornadoes.

[Rip76]

Wondering if that stall has begun....

[C2G]

Why do you favor nighttime thunderstorms over daytime ones, Cloud2ground? I would think that nighttime thunderstorms would be more hazardous or life-threatening, particularly if they are producing tornadoes.

From what I understand these storms won't be tornado producers. Most likely heavy rain, lots of lightning, and possibly some hail. I agree that storms at night can be more hazardous. For me lightning at night is much more dramatic. Don't want to sound too corny, but the storms take on a mysterious aura at night, at least for me they do.
Just something I've enjoyed since childhood.

[djjordan]

If I had a like button I would click it.

[djjordan]

I can't believe how this is developing so slowly. The Houston metro area is getting spared as the coast gets hit, and development happens North of us. I see the lightning from the coast here in SGR, gotta love weather!!!! Never can predict it exactly!!!!!

[djjordan]

Without a doubt if it keeps up like that they will issue a Flash Flood Warning for the same area.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT

* AT 125 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A NEARLY
STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY FROM THE LAKE JACKSON AREA TO AROUND LIVERPOOL TO THE
SANTA FE AND LEAGUE CITY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...LAKE JACKSON...ANGLETON...DICKINSON...
LA MARQUE...FREEPORT...CLUTE...SANTA FE...BACLIFF...HITCHCOCK...
SAN LEON...RICHWOOD...JONES CREEK...DANBURY...OYSTER CREEK...
HILLCREST AND LIVERPOOL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

[C2G]

Looks like some of the storms are starting to nudge north. Looks like this will last a while yet.

[ticka1]

Had storms when I went to bed and lastted until close to midnight - then we had nothing until I woke up to get ready for work here at 4:20 a.m. - seems like the line moved south and now seems to be moving a little north? Will this pattern be with us all day?

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail form Jeff:

Excessive rainfall/flash flood event unfolding across the coastal bend into SE TX overnight/this morning.



Extremely narrow corridors of very heavy rainfall developed throughout the night producing excessive amounts of rainfall in parts of Brazoria County and between Corpus Christi and Victoria. Doppler radar estimates rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches in a narrow corridor over southern Brazoria County.



Frontal boundary has stalled along the US 59 corridor from Livingston to Spring to Katy to Wharton to Alice with several outflow boundaries moving in various directions across the area per radar and surface observations. Unstable air mass continues to support periods/waves of thunderstorms developing in training bands across the region from south of San Antonio to western LA. Recent upward trend in radar coverage W/SW of the region over the coastal bend and SC TX appears to be the result of favorable diffluence aloft and an approaching impulse out of NE MX. Additionally, thunderstorms overnight have left behind a boundary near the coast which has been a good focus for the flooding rainfall over Brazoria County, although repeated development has ended on this boundary in the last 2 hours.



While the global models have a decent handle on the situation the event is highly mesoscale driven with slow moving low level boundaries focusing very heavy rainfall in small narrow SW to NE oriented bands. Where these bands set up and drop 2-4 inches of rainfall in a few hours is extremely difficult to forecast until it is underway. Would think the main frontal boundary would be the primary focus, and recently (past 1-2 hours) it has become that. With the near coastal activity weakening, better moisture may begin to push back northward toward the main frontal boundary focusing more sustained development in this region (near or just north of US 59). This is what some of the shorter term meso models are suggesting, but they have not preformed overly well with this event.



With moisture levels remaining high and the threat for cell training, some high totals in narrow corridors are possible. This is more of a localized flash flood threat than a widespread flood threat….but where those training bands set up those locations could easily get over 5 inches in a few hours.



Tail end of the upper trough and stalled boundary will remain over the area for the next 12-18 hours and this will continue the threat of storms and heavy rainfall. Larger scale models are even more sluggish in clearing the region…not until later on Tuesday. Will trend toward the storms gradually ending this evening as the air mass becomes overturned (worked over) and the best dynamics and moisture shift south and east with time.



Nice weather by late Tuesday-early Thursday with another faster moving system which may bring a rounds of showers and thunderstorms again Thursday night-Friday.

[srainhoutx]

TXZ226-227-161300-
FORT BEND TX-WHARTON TX-
720 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FORT BEND AND WHARTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 720 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTH OF EL CAMPO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

[jasons2k]

I've had only .14" so far. Storms last night just missed me, but they were very loud.

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/16/12 1243Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1230Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:0830Z/1028Z
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HIGH MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMING ACROSS TEXAS AND
ALLOWING CONVECTION HANG IN ALONG THE COAST AND S CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS..THIS MORNING IT'S ONE OF THOSE DEALS
WHERE THE DEEP MOISTURE IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING ANY EAST PROGRESS
AND ACTUALLY HAS SETTLED FOR REMAINING AND PERSISTING S TO SE TX AT THE
SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS ROUNDING AND NOW OUT AHEAD OF WESTERN
TEXAS TROUGH TO HELP DESTABILIZE AREA ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS HAPPENING CENTERED ON SAN PATRICIO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE RAIN ESTIMATES DISPLACE THE HEAVY RAIN
FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR 4"/6HRS. EXPERIENCE SAYS THAT
HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACING HVY RAIN TOO FAR EAST...SO THINK AMOUNTS ESTIMATED
ARE OKAY..BUT JUST DISPLACED TO FAR NORTHEAST...SO FF A GOOD POSSIBILITY
CENTERED ON SAN PATRICIO AND ENVIRONS.
ALSO EYEING SW TO NE CONVECTIVE WEDGE JUST TO THE WEST...IE NEAR MCMULLEN
COUNTY BUT MOISTURE NOT QUITE AS GOOD. OTHER AREAS ARE EITHER MOVING
OR RAINFALL NOT AS HEAVY OR PERSISTENT AS IN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1245-1545ZZ...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...AS LONG AS DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND FORCING TO WEST
WITH NOW A JET MAX SHOWING...BOUNDARY CAN BE ACTIVE AND SAN PATRICIO IS
THE SPOT AT LEAST IN IMMEDIATE TERM.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 181
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   800 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-
   489-162000-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0181.120416T1300Z-120416T2000Z/
   
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ARANSAS              BEE                 BROOKS              
   CALHOUN              CAMERON             GOLIAD              
   HIDALGO              JIM WELLS           KENEDY              
   KLEBERG              LIVE OAK            NUECES              
   REFUGIO              SAN PATRICIO        VICTORIA            
   WILLACY              
   
   
   GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-162000-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0181.120416T1300Z-120416T2000Z/
   
   CW 
   
   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
   
   LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO 
   
   LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
   MANSFIELD TX 
   
   LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX 
   
   COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TX TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER OUT
   20 NM 
   
   COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TX OUT 20 NM 
   
   BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 
   
   BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O’CONNOR 
   
   COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM 
   
   COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
   NM 
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...