March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[unome]

POES-15 latest image of TX, via TCEQ - nice

11:44
http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public ... latest.jpg

[ticka1]

This could be bad I fear.......

I agree for us here in Texas. Everyone needs to pay attention to the weather tonight and tomorrow and keep family advise of all developing situations. Like Jeff said have a plan in case there is a tornado warning in your area. Now is the time to do it - not when one is approaching.

[Ptarmigan]

I have a bad feeling this could be really bad for Texas. I can see tornadoes and floods.

[tireman4]

We are going to pay for this warmth....hummmm

[tireman4]

Did you see the Torcon for today and tomorrow....

TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON index
by Dr. Greg Forbes, Severe Weather Expert


What is the TOR:CON Index?
TOR:CON Value Descriptions

•8:High probability of a tornado
•6:Moderate possibility of a tornado
•4:Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
•2:Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
•0:Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Severe Weather Coverage
•Interactive radar: Storms now
•Severe weather safety
•Thunderstorm forecast
•Severe weather alerts
Explore weather.com
Alerts on your phone: Notify!
Photos: Tornadoes around the U.S.
Encyclopedia: Tornadoes: How they form
Tornado Risk: By Month | By City

Updated: March 19, 2012 12:15 pm ETDeveloped by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook) The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

The TOR:CON values range from 0 to 10. A value of 4 means that there is about a 40% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location in the specified area of severe thunderstorm activity. This also means that there is a 60% chance that a tornado will NOT occur.

Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.


Monday March 19
AR northwest, west-central - 4
IA west - 3
IA central - 2 to 3
KS east half - 4
MN southwest - 3
MO west, central - 4
ND extreme southeast - 2 to 3
NE east - 3
OK east - 6
OK central - 4
SD east - 3
TX central - 7
TX southeast night - 6
Other areas - less than 2


Tuesday March 20
AR southwest - 4
AR northwest - 3
IA east - 3
LA southwest - 6
LA northwest - 5
LA central - 4
MO southwest, northeast - 3
OK extreme southeast - 3
TX southeast - 6
TX northeast - 5
WI southwest, east-central - 3
Other areas - less than 2

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2011-07-11

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Central Texas...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.UPDATE...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...
WHICH EXTENDS FROM OZONA NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN ANGELO TO ABILENE
TO OKLAHOMA CITY... IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A MOIST AIRMASS AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BY THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THAT TIME...DAYTIME HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE WITH MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TIME FRAME FOR THESE
STORMS TO STRIKE OUR AREA COULD RUN FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO SAN ANTONIO TO SEGUIN TO
BASTROP TO LEXINGTON LINE (WORD OF CAUTION...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT AREAS NO INCLUDED IN THIS
DELINEATED AREA).

A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AROUND 8 OR 9 PM
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE THE I35 CORRIDOR WILL BE AFFECTED THE
MOST AROUND 10 PM THIS EVENING TO ABOUT 4 AM TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING
LIGHTEN STORMS THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOOD RISK BEGINS AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS
STORMS AFFECT SOME AREAS WITH HEAVIEST RAINS AND FLASH FLASH
POTENTIAL OVER THE I 35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE SAN ANTONIO AND
AUSTIN METROPOLITAN AREAS COULD OCCUR FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4
AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
TWO TO FIVE INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH UP TO SEVEN
INCHES ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS.

NOW IS THE TIME TO CHECK YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN AND PROCEDURES
AS THE STORM SYSTEM STILL HOURS AWAY BEFORE HEADING OUR WAY.

A FRIENDLY REMAINDER...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CASTELL TO KERRVILLE TO HONDO TO PEARSALL.

[unome]

easy to see the set-up in this

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/m ... ?loop=true

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image: Information

The composite images displayed on our Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite pages are created using SSEC's McIDAS software and NOAA's GOES imager satellite imagery. A McIDAS based program created by Rick Kohrs at SSEC is used to merge GOES East and GOES West images, remap them and then remove the portions of the images that are the ground and replace those pixels with NASA's big blue marble basemap. Determining which portions of the images are cloud and which are ground is done via a cloud detection algorithm that compares cloud top temperature versus the surface temperature. The satellite imagery is provided by the SSEC Data Center.

[Belmer]

I know we're talking about the weather event that is going on right now on this page, however, I watched Travis Herzog's online weather webcast and when he showed the seven day, he mentioned that after this significant weather event, we might not see any rain for the next couple of weeks. What exactly are the long range models showing?

[srainhoutx]

It appears the SPC has reconfigured the Day 2 Slight Risk a bit further W suggesting the slowing trend seen in guidance. I'll have the graphic and text up shortly when it becomes available.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS....THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CYCLONE
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND AN EXTENSIVE AND
JUST AS ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN 1/3RD OF NORTH
AMERICA. BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE ANOMALIES WILL EXIST ANOTHER
ANOMALY...HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR BEING TRANSPORTED
NWD FROM THE SUB-TROPICS ACROSS THE NWRN GULF COAST AND INTO THE
CNTRL CONUS. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE BLOCKING...EVOLVING DEEP-LAYER
CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO TAKE FORM IN THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MAKE ONLY VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS THIS
PERIOD. AS ALLUDED IN PREVIOUS DY2 OUTLOOK...MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER IN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THROUGH EARLY WED.

...SERN TX/ARKLATEX TO OZARKS...
LIFT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH
AN UNUSUALLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION IN ORGANIZED LINEAR BANDS..AND OCCASIONAL LARGER
CLUSTERS...ACROSS ERN TX THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TREND WWD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST MCS SIGNAL INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WITH LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGESTING THE CORRIDOR FOR
GREATEST TSTM POTENTIAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
FROM SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS ERN OK TO SWRN AR. ANAFRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPORTED BY 1) THE SLOW EWD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND 2) DEEP-LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW.

AHEAD OF THE LINEAR MCS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SERN TX AND ERN
OK...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EAST ACROSS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL
REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...WITH LIFT ESSENTIALLY FOCUSED NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...OVERALL STORM EVOLUTION AND SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN BOTH ERN AND NRN
EXTENT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HINTS AS SMALLER SCALE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AMIDST THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES
REVEAL SUBSTANTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF
200-300 M2/S2 AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE AND LOW LFC
LIKELY WITHIN THE SLGT RISK CORRIDOR...THIS SUGGESTS THAT A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES SEEM POSSIBLE.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH REPEAT/TRAINING CONVECTION OF THIS
NATURE...STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND CAPE/INSTABILITY VARIATIONS
INTRODUCE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CHANCE FOR A STRONG TORNADO IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...ATTEMPTING TO HIGHLIGHT A GREATER RISK AT
THIS TIME IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVE ACCURATE. WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY TORNADO AREA MAY BE INCLUDED IN
AN UPCOMING DY1 OUTLOOK.

...TX PNHDL/SWRN OK/NWRN TX...
AS THE LARGER SYSTEM BECOME OCCLUDED AND COLD CORE PIVOTS ACROSS
NRN TX AND OK COINCIDENT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
HEATING...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH
SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS.

..CARBIN.. 03/19/2012

[Paul]

this reminds me of the setup we had in Feb that we saw some F0 running around town. We have strong low level winds gusting to 30mph here in Pearland, warm moist air piling up ahead of the trof. Although, I think this is going to be a little more intense than Feb event. going to get bumpy around here tonight...

[Ptarmigan]

We are going to pay for this warmth....hummmm

There is a reason why winters are cold. Warm winters are not a good thing.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Significant severe weather and heavy rainfall event just about to get underway across TX.



Wind:

Advisory verifying well early this afternoon with frequent gusts at or over 35-40mph at several sites…including 44mph at Victoria in the last hour. Strong southerly winds will continue this evening a clear sign of developing activity to our west.



Severe:

No big chances to the severe threat for the area with all severe modes still in play for this afternoon across central TX to tonight-Tuesday over SE and E TX. Tornado threat may be slightly more elevated than thought this morning given especially across central TX this evening and SE TX on Tuesday. 600am CRP sounding showed 0-3km SRH of 258 m^2/s^2 and these values will likely increase this afternoon and overnight as low level wind field remain backed out of the SE below SW mid level flow. Still think the main threat will be wind damage along the leading edge of some sort of squall line, but a few significant tornado events (especially this evening over SW/Central/NC TX) are possible. Additionally, rapid spin-ups along he leading edge of the line could result in streaks of damage.



Numerous watches and warning are likely over the next 24 hours.



Heavy Rainfall/Flooding:

A very challenging forecast with respect to rainfall as some really big totals are possible…but where is the outstanding question. Upper level storm will cut off over OK with a favorable south to north oriented band of excessive rainfall slowing and stalling out somewhere over eastern TX/W LA. Given tremendous moisture inflow off the Gulf of Mexico, very favorable upper air divergence in a splitting jet structure, nearly saturated air column, and flow becoming parallel to surface boundary (increasing threat for training) prodigious rainfall amounts appear likely. Based on some of the gridded flash flood guidance numbers it appears the threshold to really start getting into some problems will be between 3-4 inches of rainfall in a 1 hour time span…of course these values will decrease after the rainfall begins. Given the amounts of moisture and potential for cell training hourly rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are possible on Tuesday. This will create the potential for rapid and significant urban ponding/flooding.



I am not overly confident on when/if the squall line stalls over the area and where, but this would be the location of greatest threat. Current suggestions have this area roughly from Houston to Lake Charles as the main area for some really big rainfall amounts.



Run-off generated from this rainfall will result in significant rises on area watersheds and river basins already running high.



HPC has upgraded most of SE TX into a moderate risk of exceeding our flash flood guidance values.



A Flash Flood Watch may be required this afternoon for all of the area.

[srainhoutx]

Updated HPC QPF Forecast keeps inching further W with higher rainfall totals...

[Katdaddy]

Winds are S at 35G55MPH in Denton, TX. Seeing wind gusting 40-50MPH acros North Texas.

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/19/12 1846Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1840Z JBN
.
LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
LOCATION...KANSAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION FROM TX TO WRN MO...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OVERALL SET UP IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CNTRL U.S. LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TX/OK/ERN KS/MO/AR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS THAT IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING EWD ATTM
AND IS RUNNING INTO A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION/TENNESSEE
VALLEY. VERY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME IS SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES AND STRETCHES FROM TX TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WITH PWATS
AVERAGING 200-250% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONGOING CONVECTION
SEEN IN IR/VIS IMAGERY OVER NRN AND CNTRL TX/OK/ERN KS/WRN MO CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY CRAWL EWD WITH THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TROUGH IS BECOMING
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED, AND THIS EWD MOVEMENT MAY SLOW FURTHER OF COME
TO A COMPLETE HALT THE NEXT 3-6 HRS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED
MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT.
.
WV IMAGERY NOW SHOWING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WITH ONE WAVE ENTERING SW TX AND A SECOND WAVE OVER SRN AZ ATTM. MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING SW TX. A NICE
120 +KT SATELLITE DERIVED JET STREAK IS RIDING NEWD WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL UL SUPPORT TO RE-INVIGORATE CONVECTION
THAT IS ONGOING ATTM WHILE SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL BACK BUILDING CONVECTION
ON THE TAIL END OF THE LINE OVER CNTRL TX. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HRS A SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR INITIAL ROUND OF
HVY RAIN PULLS AWAY INTO NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, SHOULD SEE CLOUD TOPS COOLING
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAIN RATES AGAIN AS A
RESULT. TRAINING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A REAL THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UL WIND FLOW IS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL WITH OVERALL MOISTURE
PLUME/LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE HYDRO-ESTIMATE PRODUCTS/MESO-NET
OBS SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1-2" RAINS FROM N-CNTRL TX TO SE KS WITH A
FEW AREAS NEAR CNTRL OK REPORTING 2-2.5" OF RAIN THE PAST 3 HRS. SIMILAR
AMTS OF 1-3" OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER
E ACROSS CNTRL TX/ERN OK/NW AR/ERN KS/WR MO THE NEXT FEW HRS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1845Z-2245Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EWD
ACROSS KS/WRN MO/OK/CNTRL TX ATTM. THIS LINE HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS, BUT SHOULD GET A BOOST FROM THE
SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING SW TX. MAY SEE THE THREAT FOR HVY RAIN SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER S INTO N/CNTRL TX/ERN OK/NW AR/SW MO THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE
NEWER ROUND OF CONVECTION TAKES SHAPE. AS A RESULT, COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS THE NEXT 2-4 HRS.

[srainhoutx]

And so it begins...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191915Z - 192045Z

MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH A THREAT WOULD
INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.
CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WOULD LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

EXTENSIVE COLD POOL PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...WITH
PERIPHERAL/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
FAR NORTHEAST OK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL TX IN VICINITY OF SHERMAN/MINERAL WELLS/BROWNWOOD
AS OF 19Z. THE TX PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED
TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH SOME RECENT UPDRAFT
INTENSIFICATION EVIDENT PER RADAR/SATELLITE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE
BROWNWOOD/STEPHENVILLE TX AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THE 18Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH WAS INDICATIVE OF SEVERAL DEGREES C OF
WARMING AND ADDITIONAL CAPPING ALOFT /AROUND AND ABOVE 800 MB/ SINCE
THIS MORNING...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT ABATING
STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE COLD POOL MAY FAVOR STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...OTHER STORMS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED RECENTLY BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND JUNCTION TX...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TIED TO A NORTHEAST-SURGING JET
STREAK ALOFT/INCREASING DEEP ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX.

[wxman666]

It's the "hurry up and wait" game in storm chasing lingo. The most boring part of a severe weather outbreak...oh the anticipation.

[srainhoutx]

Cap has been broken in Val Verde County NW of Del Rio. The 18Z Special sounding had shown capping, but with temps now in the mid 80's, the cap has been broken and a Severe Thunderstorm popped near Langtry.

[texoz]

what's the website that lets you track the tornado chasers?

nvrmnd, just found it

http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 85
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   240 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
   
   TORNADO WATCH 85 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   TXC019-031-035-049-053-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-121-137-139-
   143-147-171-181-193-217-221-251-259-265-267-271-281-299-307-309-
   319-325-327-333-363-367-385-411-413-425-435-439-463-465-497-
   200300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0085.120319T1940Z-120320T0300Z/
   
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BANDERA              BLANCO              BOSQUE              
   BROWN                BURNET              COLEMAN             
   COLLIN               COMANCHE            CONCHO              
   COOKE                CORYELL             DALLAS              
   DENTON               EDWARDS             ELLIS               
   ERATH                FANNIN              GILLESPIE           
   GRAYSON              HAMILTON            HILL                
   HOOD                 JOHNSON             KENDALL             
   KERR                 KIMBLE              KINNEY              
   LAMPASAS             LLANO               MASON               
   MCCULLOCH            MCLENNAN            MEDINA              
   MENARD               MILLS               PALO PINTO          
   PARKER               REAL                SAN SABA            
   SCHLEICHER           SOMERVELL           SUTTON              
   TARRANT              UVALDE              VAL VERDE           
   WISE                 
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...