April Weather Discussion.

[weatherguy425]

Axis of heavy rain moving ever so closer to SETX, also noticing some WWA showers down in our SW zones.

[biggerbyte]

Yes, it sure looks like we could. This is a change from the past few days. I would not expect the kind of rain potential we'll see west and south of the Houston area, but things look much better for many to get in
on some action.

HPC's 0z QPF is still not that bullish on rain here in the Houston metro area with half inch or less

Yes, but I am not at all in agreement. Though we may not see terribly heavy rainfall, to say a half inch or less seems a bit on the low side of things. In fact, some folks could see upwards of two inch amounts. As we all know, this is subject to change. Thursday night will be telling as to how far east the heaviest rainfall would be. I'm not sure where these folks are getting the data, as of today's writing. Jeff nailed the current forecast as it stands for now. He may even need to enhance it a bit come Thursday night when we get a closer look at how things are shaping up for the weekend.

We'll see... At least things don't look quite as depressing for folks that need some rain. Let's face it... Our chances as of late have been about 5% for most folks central Montgomery county and points south.

[wxdata]

0z NAM keeping bulk of the rain west of metro Houston through 84 hours.

[srainhoutx]

We have been having light rain in NW Harris County most of the night. It appears that areas W of the HWY 59 Corridor will likely have the 'best chances' of seeing rainfall today. A rather impressive MCS system is traversing areas W of San Antonio this morning moving slowly NE. HGX as well as the HPC are suggesting that the NAM and ECMWF have a better handle on the QPF that keeps the heaviest rainfall to the W of the Houston Metro. We shall see.

TX Radar Loop...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

[wxdata]

HPC siding with NAM; West Texas turns into a lake; rainfall totals for metro Houston stay puny; a portend for summer?

[srainhoutx]

Tough day out W in Frio and Medina Counties. I suspect that the drive out Hwy 90 from San Antonio to Hondo to Uvalde is a bit tricky...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/15/10 1539Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1500Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...EWX...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE CENTERED JUST SW OF THE RIO GRANDE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD
TOPS COOLING WITH ONE AREA SHOWING DISTINCT COOLING CENTERED OVER FRIO
COUNTY WITH A CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE OF -66C. DRT 12Z SOUNDING HAS AN EL
TEMPERATURE OF -64C SUGGESTING THAT POTENTIAL FOR OVERSHOOTING TOPS COULD
TAKE PLACE AND WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA OF CLOUD
TOP COOLING AND THE TREND HAS BEEN TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL
TX. BLENDED TPW AND GPS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.7". THE GREATEST SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SURFACE BASED THETA-E RIDGE POINTED INTO DUVAL COUNTY. THE
AUTO-ESTIMATOR SUGGESTS MAX RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5"/30MIN AND THIS IS ALSO
SEEN IN MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES. PLEASE SEE THE WEBSITE LISTED BELOW
FOR A GRAPHIC OUTLINING THE FEATURES DISCUSSED ABOVE IN APPROX 10-15 MIN.

[wxdata]

Wow! GFS and NAM have are now in big time disagreement on rain over SE TX in next few days- NAM dry, GFS wet...

[srainhoutx]

Tough time in the Hill Country...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
110 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BANDERA COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY...
KERR COUNTY...
MEDINA COUNTY...
EASTERN REAL COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 1259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE
SAME AREA. THIS TRAINING OF STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WALTONIA...
CYPRESS CREEK...CLIFF...UTOPIA...MICO...VANDERPOOL...TARPLEY...
MEDINA...LOST MAPLES STATE PARK...LAKEHILLS...BANDERA...MOUNTAIN
HOME...KERRVILLE...KERRVILLE STATE PARK...KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT
AREA...INGRAM...HUNT...CENTER POINT AND CAMP VERDE.

[srainhoutx]

More problems near San Antonio...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
131 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

TXC013-029-091-187-255-493-152130-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0036.100415T1831Z-100415T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COMAL-GUADALUPE-BEXAR-WILSON-ATASCOSA-KARNES-
131 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
ATASCOSA COUNTY...
BEXAR COUNTY...
CENTRAL KARNES COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY...
WESTERN COMAL COUNTY...
WILSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PLEASANTON TO SAN ANTONIO
TO WEST OF NEW BRAUNFELS. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHARLOTTE...CHRISTINE...FLORESVILLE...JOURDANTON...KARNES CITY...
KENEDY...KOSCIUSKO...PLEASANTON...POTEET AND POTH.

[wxdata]

I think another spritz has hit my house, and it seems like just a little sunshine is all that is needed to spark little popcorn showers locally.

Plus deeper Gulf moisture...

[srainhoutx]

Interesting discussion from Austin/San Antonio...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
409 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
BRIEF DISCUSSION TODAY DUE TO ONGOING WEATHER. THE SLOW MOVING MCS
IS WEAKENING...AND CONVECTION IS REFORMING/FOCUSING NEAR THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE TRANS-PECOS...VERY SIMILAR TO CORE FOCUSING IN A
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THUS EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF OVER OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT 4 HOURS. MOIST GULF FLOW AND PW AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL WANE AFTER TONIGHT...RETURNING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND HUMID SURFACE CONDITIONS...WITH A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SUPPORTING MOSTLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WEAK CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL QPF FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...BUT IT WILL COME IN
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH SPURTS. THE GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...BUT TIMING MESOSCALE FORCING IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BEYOND
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. IN SHORT...ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting discussion from Austin/San Antonio...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
409 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
BRIEF DISCUSSION TODAY DUE TO ONGOING WEATHER. THE SLOW MOVING MCS
IS WEAKENING...AND CONVECTION IS REFORMING/FOCUSING NEAR THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE TRANS-PECOS...VERY SIMILAR TO CORE FOCUSING IN A
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THUS EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF OVER OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT 4 HOURS. MOIST GULF FLOW AND PW AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL WANE AFTER TONIGHT...RETURNING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND HUMID SURFACE CONDITIONS...WITH A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SUPPORTING MOSTLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WEAK CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL QPF FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...BUT IT WILL COME IN
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH SPURTS. THE GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...BUT TIMING MESOSCALE FORCING IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BEYOND
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. IN SHORT...ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN.

Hmmmmmmm, core rain. Core rains happen at night because of a warm low pressure and a cooler surrounding.

[djjordan]

Radar showing that core rainfall nicely right now. Storm is nearly stationary!!!!!!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no





BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
112 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 107 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 7 AND 10 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARLY
STATIONARY...AND ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY.

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...TILDEN...CALLIHAM...CROSS AND CROWTHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

[Mr. T]

West Texas turns into a lake; rainfall totals for metro Houston stay puny; a portend for summer?

I hope so...

April 2009 was one of the wettest on record around here (3rd wettest at IAH), including one of the worst flooding events I've ever seen around the Kingwood area. As we all know, it never rained another drop until the end of summer...

April 1983, which was also coming off of a strong El Nino, was one of the driest on record (3rd driest at IAH), and the following summer recieved well above average rainfall.

Observed precipitation patterns in April are not exactly what one could expect in the summer. The above shows it could be quite the opposite.

[srainhoutx]

Radar showing that core rainfall nicely right now. Storm is nearly stationary!!!!!!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no





BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
112 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 107 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 7 AND 10 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARLY
STATIONARY...AND ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY.

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...TILDEN...CALLIHAM...CROSS AND CROWTHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

Interesting morning Update from Corpus Christi regarding McMullen County...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
454 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...EPIC RAINFALL BULLSEYE HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY OVERNIGHT...WHERE
STORM TRAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND DUMPED 10-15 INCHES OF RAIN.
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED AND SEVERAL ROADS ARE CLOSED IN THE
COUNTY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RAINFALL WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE RESERVOIRS. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MID LEVEL MESOSCALE VORT
HAS FINALLY DRIFTED NORTHEAST OF MCMULLEN COUNTY AND IS WEAKENING.

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS WEST TEXAS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WEAK TRAILING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY ALSO
WILL MOVE EAST. EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OFF THE GULF SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING AND ANALYZED
ON LAPS/MSAS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND UP THE I-37 CORRIDOR. WITH
CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND HEATING LATER THIS MORNING
LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP TODAY WILL UP THE
I-37 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...AS OPPOSED
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS. POPS RANGE FROM 70-90% ALONG THE I-37 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEAST...TO 50% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT THUS FAR THE EXTREME BULLSEYES
OF PRECIP AND LOW FLASH GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED OVER DUVAL...MCMULLEN
AND SOUTHERN JIM WELLS COUNTIES. WITH THE PRECIP SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA TODAY HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW...BUT DID
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ALL ZONES. MAINTAINED CHANCES
POPS FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/16/10 1046Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1032Z DS
.
LOCATION...S TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...DVLPG CNVTN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT SATL/RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
SVRL NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING ORGANIZED OVER SRN
TX. CLOUD TOPS OF -44C ARE SLOWLY MOVING N/NNW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN
PATRICIO/BEE/GOLIAD COUNTIES HEADING FOR THE GROWING CLUSTER OF CELLS
THAT HAS BEEN NRLY STNRY OVER MCMULLEN/LIVE OAK COUNTIES FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. MERGERS ARE ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THESE GROUPS OF CELLS
WHICH WILL ONLY SERVE TO CAUSE A BRIEF INCREASE IN RAINRATES..APPEARING
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NW BEE/NE LIVE OAK/SW KARNES COUNTIES DURING
NEXT HR. CLUSTER CURRENTLY HAS CLOUD TOP TEMPS OF -62C AND IS LIKELY TO
EXHIBIT A COOLING TREND OVER NEXT 1-1.5 HRS AS MERGERS OCCUR.
.
WV SHOWS VORT MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS SPENES MESSAGE STILL OVER DEEP SRN
TX AND ANOTHER UL S/WV TROF FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. EXPMTL MESOSCALE SATL
WINDS INDICATE STRONG DVG OVER S TX NR THE PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS
RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING TROF AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT CREATED BY MID LVL VORT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN
AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN SIZE/STRENGTH THE CLUSTER THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING. PW'S STILL ARE AROUND 1.5" WITH GOOD LL INFLOW WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR HVY RAINFALL WITH RATES OF 1-2"/HR TO BE LIKELY AND APPROACHING
RATES OF 2.5"/HR DURING MERGERS. STILL UNSURE AS TO WHETHER CLUSTER WILL
BE MOVING DURING NEXT FEW HRS BUT EXPECT MOD-HVY RAINS WILL AFFECT THE
DISCUSSION AREA FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HRS. PLEASE SEE WEB ADDRESS FOR
GRAPHIC ANALYSIS SHORTLY.

[wxman57]

I'm afraid it looks like another rain-out for the MS-150 ride to Austin this weekend. With that upper low moving across and the weak front sagging southward, rain chances will be far greater than the NWS's 50%. One main reason is that the riders won't be in one spot, they'll be traveling westward across a large area. That alone will increase rain chances to near 100%. And rain chances go up significantly between Houston and Austin. I think it's just a question of whether they'll ride through 30-60 minutes of rain on Saturday or 4-6 hours of it. And where it's raining, the temperature will be in the 63-66 degree range. Quite cool. My wife is planning to ride, but not if it's more than just a few scattered showers. Chances of that are looking slim.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the Update wxman57. Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Incredible rains fall over SC TX overnight. Since late yesterday afternoon 12-15 inches of rain has fallen over Live Oak and McMullen counties south of San Antonio and NW of Corpus Christi leading is widespread significant flooding. Mid level vort max along with deep moist Gulf inflow developed a quasi-stationary MCS which remained favorably parked over this small area all night. Over the past few hours the axis/core of the rainfall as shifted slightly eastward to just west of Victoria. Additionally, heavy rainfall has occurred over WC and portions of C TX leading to rapid rises on area watersheds and rivers including the: Frio, Sabinal, upper Colorado, Medina, Rio Grande, and Guadalupe.

850mb ridge over the SE US is keeping SE TX on the far eastern edge of the wet pattern over C and S TX with most activity yesterday west of I-45. Will likely see less activity today as ridge builds slightly from the east and deeper moisture is shunted westward. Starting Saturday the GFS begins to break down the ridge on its western flank allowing rich tropical moisture to move into the area while the NAM is almost completely dry. Will trend toward the wetter GFS solution especially for our western and SW zones where the deep moisture axis is already on the doorstep. Meso scale nature of the evolving pattern to our immediate west could easily rapidly raise or lower rain chances over the weekend and while Sunday is looking the wettest, just about any time will be susceptible to streamers moving in off the Gulf.

Will go ahead and aim a general 1-2 inches at our western counties, but given PWS of 1.8+ inches at CRP which is pushing 200% of normal for mid April and what happened overnight gives pause for concern in such a moist environment. Any training or quasi-stationary bands/clusters will quickly lead to significant rainfall under the deeper moisture axis. Meso scale pattern and axis of this moisture results in little skill or confidence is where to add higher QPF totals although our western counties from CLL to VCT would look like a good bet for today into Saturday and then possible W of I-45 for Sunday.

MS150 Riders:

The good news is that Saturday will feature a decent 10-15mph tailwind (ESE to SE winds of 10-15mph), bad news is there will be showers especially once west of Houston. Greatest rain chances will likely come Saturday afternoon/evening from Sealy on westward. Weak frontal boundary may shift winds around to the NE at 5-10mph for Sunday, but is such a chaotic weak wind pattern it is hard to tell if the front actually makes it to Austin on Sunday. This will also have a big impact on rain chances as drier air north of the front attempts to make inroads into the region. Not as bad as last year, but it will be wet in spots.

[srainhoutx]

Another Nesdis Update...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/16/10 1453Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1432Z TEB
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...PERSISTENT RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND
HOCKLEY COUNTIES APPEARS TO THE ANCHOR POSITION FOR SLIGHTLY WARM-TOPPED
BUT MODERATE RAIN PRODUCING CLOUDS. MANUAL ESTIMATED RAIN RATES
UP TO .5" PER HALF-HOUR HAVE ACCUMULATED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.
TOPS ARE JUST NOW GENERALLY WARMING BUT THE UPWIND ANCHOR POINT HAS
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED DUE TO LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE LOW CENTER.
SOME MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGING COMING IN FROM NEW MEXICO MAY ENCOURAGE
THE MAX PRECIP AREA TO SLIDE SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT LINE AFTER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

[wxdata]

HPC ramps up rain amounts for SE TX; Sunday has the bulls-eye for us.

[biggerbyte]

Hang on, gang. This event is not going to be over until a Sunday/Monday timeframe. Really nothing has changed since yesterday.