January 2025
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ClearLake77
- Posts: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:45 pm
- Contact:
34 here with light rain.
Getting dry slotted here a bit in the city for now after some light off/on sleet, but really liking the trends so far. Seems like things are starting to amp up and fill in nicely and the transition to full snow is quickly marching south. Now the question is do I stay up and power through or hit the hay now and wake up super early?
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Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
Everyone else is filling in quick but good ole brazoria county takes it sweet *** time like always
I just ran this on the WPC site for fun.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Not that you can't see the event out the window, but...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
612 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
*** HISTORIC WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SE TEXAS ***
KEY MESSAGES:
1) Deteriorating conditions are expected overnight with moderate
to heavy mixed precipitation tomorrow morning and early afternoon.
2) Snow totals of 4-6" along and south of the I-10 corridor, 1-3"
north of the I-10 corridor and SW of the Houston Metro. Higher
amounts are possible in the strongest bands. Ice accumulations of
up to 0.1" possible.
3) Extremely cold temperatures are expected on Tuesday night,
with lows near or below 20 degrees.
4) Travel will be extremely hazardous and not possible at times.
Driving should be avoided in impacted areas until conditions
become safer.
Confidence has continued to increase in the prospect of a
historic winter storm to impact the area overnight tonight into
tomorrow afternoon. Based on the current forecast, this will be
the most significant winter storm the Greater Houston area has
experienced since at least 1960. This is a highly unusual event
for our region that will produce very hazardous travel conditions
throughout the course of the day tomorrow and into the early
parts of Wednesday. As such, it must be stressed that travel
should be avoided at all costs until conditions become safer.
Synoptic models continue to remain on track with their depiction
of a weak coastal low/trough in the Western Gulf that will
continue to push northeastward tonight and into tomorrow. As this
occurs, an amplified midlevel trough will push into the Southern
Plains by tomorrow morning. Global models also placing SE TX
within the right entrance region of a strong jet streak, thereby
providing favorable conditions for vertical ascent/upper level
divergence as the system approaches the SE TX coast.
Latest guidance indicates the onset of precipitation as early as
6 PM this evening across parts of the northern zones. Initial
light precipitation is expected to fall as cold rain or a mix of
rain, sleet, and snow as temperatures cool below freezing over the
course of the overnight period. This could amount to some
measurable snow and/or sleet before midnight, particularly across
locations to the north of the I-10 corridor.
More significant precipitation will begin after midnight and
likely peak between approximately 6 AM and Noon tomorrow as the
aforementioned low pressure system pushes closer to the coast.
Confidence remains high that most of this precipitation will fall
as snow. However, we could see periods of a wintry mix depending
on relatively small fluctuations in the temperature profile over
the course of the event. Areas SW of the Houston Metro, where
forecast soundings indicate a more robust layer of warm air aloft,
may pick up some freezing rain during this time period with total
ice accumulations between a hundredth and a tenth of an inch.
Between today`s suite of global model guidance, high resolution
models, and probabilistic ensemble guidance, our forecast
snowfall totals have experienced a slight shift to the south but
otherwise have remained generally on track from the past few
forecast packages. The heaviest snowfall continues to remain
concentrated along and south of the I-10 corridor, particularly
the southern portion of Metro Houston, Galveston Bay area, and the
Galveston Island area. Widespread totals of 4-6" of snowfall are
expected to fall in these locations, with the rest of SE Texas
likely to see 1-3" of snowfall. Mesoscale models continue to show
the potential of a few heavier bands of snow, and as such we could
see some localized amounts higher than 6 inches. Winter
precipitation should generally clear from north to south, with
precipitation ending during the early afternoon hours. The
temperature forecast tomorrow is complicated, and will be tied to
the timing and location of any snowfall. Most locations will have
the potential to break above freezing, if only slightly, but
there`s a chance some areas may remain at or below freezing for
the entire day. More clarity on this may not arrive until we are
well into the event tomorrow.
Forecast snow totals certainly stand out in a historical context.
While we will not break the all-time snowfall record for Houston
(14" in 1895), a total of higher than 3" would surpass the 1960
winter storm as the second highest snowfall total in recorded
history for Houston. As the forecast stands, this should be
considered a generational winter storm event and its impacts
should be taken seriously. Travel overnight and tomorrow will be
extremely hazardous if not impossible for much of the area, and
travel is highly discouraged. Roads will become slick and
difficult to drive on, with icing possible on elevated roadways
and bridges.
We continue to also anticipate a very cold morning on Wednesday,
with the combined impacts of cold advection and a lingering
snowpack bringing overnight lows to near or below 20 inland and in
the mid 20s along the immediate coast. Low temperatures will be
subject to the location of where the heaviest snow falls, and
possible upward/downward adjustments in the forecast will be
required once a better picture of the snowpack emerges. As such,
we have maintained the Extreme Cold Watch for now, as some areas
still are poised to reach wind chills of 10-15 degrees during the
early part of Wednesday. The likely locations of the coldest
lows/wind chills should emerge tomorrow afternoon. Regardless,
these cold temperatures will allow for accumulated precipitation
to remain on surfaces/roadways and also may result in refreezing
of any lingering liquid.
Preparations for this historic storm should be finalized as soon
as possible. Be prepared to potentially need to stay where you
are throughout the day on Tuesday and into early Wednesday as
travel conditions may not be safe. Be sure to consider any final
actions needed to protect the "4 Ps" - People, Plants, Pets, and
Pipes.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
We will kick off the long-term forecast with the mention of the VERY
cold temperatures expected Wednesday morning. Lows on Wednesday
morning will be in the teens for inland areas and in the low 20s
along the coast. Wind Chills will be flirting with the criteria for
an Extreme Cold Warning. Local criteria for the Extreme Cold Warning
is Wind Chills or Air Temperatures of 15F or less for Harris
Counties and counties south of Harris. For those north of Harris
County the criteria is 10F or less.
That being said, we are going to stick with the Extreme Cold Watch
for the time being and consider upgrading to an Extreme Cold Warning
with the overnight package or during the day Tuesday. These colder
temperatures are heavily dependent on where the bulk of snow/ice
falls.
Road conditions will likely remain hazardous Wednesday morning,
especially since temperatures on Tuesday will struggle to get above
freezing for most locations (if they do reach to above freezing, it
wouldn`t be for long). That means whatever melting does occur, and
whatever is still frozen will refreeze/remain frozen with the
subfreezing temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Luckily, we are expected to get into the 40s across the area
Wednesday afternoon, so this should improve travel conditions during
the afternoon hours. Be mindful that any residual wet spots on
roadways/bridges/overpasses will refreeze Wednesday night as we dip
back into subfreezing temperatures.
Near the end of the week an upper level trough will deepen from the
Four Corners and will eject another cold front towards SE Texas.
Fear not, despite another cold front temperatures are still expected
to gradually warm as onshore flow quickly returns late Friday into
early Saturday. All in all, freezing temperatures at night/early
morning should come to an end Thursday night into Friday morning.
Fridays lows will be much warmer as temperatures jump into the
upper 30s to low 40s. By the weekend, low temperatures will be in
the 50s.
Similarly, highs will see a similar upward trend with highs in the
60s over the weekend. With the return of onshore flow, we will also
see the return of moisture ahead of the next frontal boundary. This
will result in an increased chance of showers over the weekend. With
it being later in the period there is uncertainty on whether or not
the front will push through the area. At the very least, model
consensus is still trending to a rainy weekend.
Adams
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
612 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
*** HISTORIC WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SE TEXAS ***
KEY MESSAGES:
1) Deteriorating conditions are expected overnight with moderate
to heavy mixed precipitation tomorrow morning and early afternoon.
2) Snow totals of 4-6" along and south of the I-10 corridor, 1-3"
north of the I-10 corridor and SW of the Houston Metro. Higher
amounts are possible in the strongest bands. Ice accumulations of
up to 0.1" possible.
3) Extremely cold temperatures are expected on Tuesday night,
with lows near or below 20 degrees.
4) Travel will be extremely hazardous and not possible at times.
Driving should be avoided in impacted areas until conditions
become safer.
Confidence has continued to increase in the prospect of a
historic winter storm to impact the area overnight tonight into
tomorrow afternoon. Based on the current forecast, this will be
the most significant winter storm the Greater Houston area has
experienced since at least 1960. This is a highly unusual event
for our region that will produce very hazardous travel conditions
throughout the course of the day tomorrow and into the early
parts of Wednesday. As such, it must be stressed that travel
should be avoided at all costs until conditions become safer.
Synoptic models continue to remain on track with their depiction
of a weak coastal low/trough in the Western Gulf that will
continue to push northeastward tonight and into tomorrow. As this
occurs, an amplified midlevel trough will push into the Southern
Plains by tomorrow morning. Global models also placing SE TX
within the right entrance region of a strong jet streak, thereby
providing favorable conditions for vertical ascent/upper level
divergence as the system approaches the SE TX coast.
Latest guidance indicates the onset of precipitation as early as
6 PM this evening across parts of the northern zones. Initial
light precipitation is expected to fall as cold rain or a mix of
rain, sleet, and snow as temperatures cool below freezing over the
course of the overnight period. This could amount to some
measurable snow and/or sleet before midnight, particularly across
locations to the north of the I-10 corridor.
More significant precipitation will begin after midnight and
likely peak between approximately 6 AM and Noon tomorrow as the
aforementioned low pressure system pushes closer to the coast.
Confidence remains high that most of this precipitation will fall
as snow. However, we could see periods of a wintry mix depending
on relatively small fluctuations in the temperature profile over
the course of the event. Areas SW of the Houston Metro, where
forecast soundings indicate a more robust layer of warm air aloft,
may pick up some freezing rain during this time period with total
ice accumulations between a hundredth and a tenth of an inch.
Between today`s suite of global model guidance, high resolution
models, and probabilistic ensemble guidance, our forecast
snowfall totals have experienced a slight shift to the south but
otherwise have remained generally on track from the past few
forecast packages. The heaviest snowfall continues to remain
concentrated along and south of the I-10 corridor, particularly
the southern portion of Metro Houston, Galveston Bay area, and the
Galveston Island area. Widespread totals of 4-6" of snowfall are
expected to fall in these locations, with the rest of SE Texas
likely to see 1-3" of snowfall. Mesoscale models continue to show
the potential of a few heavier bands of snow, and as such we could
see some localized amounts higher than 6 inches. Winter
precipitation should generally clear from north to south, with
precipitation ending during the early afternoon hours. The
temperature forecast tomorrow is complicated, and will be tied to
the timing and location of any snowfall. Most locations will have
the potential to break above freezing, if only slightly, but
there`s a chance some areas may remain at or below freezing for
the entire day. More clarity on this may not arrive until we are
well into the event tomorrow.
Forecast snow totals certainly stand out in a historical context.
While we will not break the all-time snowfall record for Houston
(14" in 1895), a total of higher than 3" would surpass the 1960
winter storm as the second highest snowfall total in recorded
history for Houston. As the forecast stands, this should be
considered a generational winter storm event and its impacts
should be taken seriously. Travel overnight and tomorrow will be
extremely hazardous if not impossible for much of the area, and
travel is highly discouraged. Roads will become slick and
difficult to drive on, with icing possible on elevated roadways
and bridges.
We continue to also anticipate a very cold morning on Wednesday,
with the combined impacts of cold advection and a lingering
snowpack bringing overnight lows to near or below 20 inland and in
the mid 20s along the immediate coast. Low temperatures will be
subject to the location of where the heaviest snow falls, and
possible upward/downward adjustments in the forecast will be
required once a better picture of the snowpack emerges. As such,
we have maintained the Extreme Cold Watch for now, as some areas
still are poised to reach wind chills of 10-15 degrees during the
early part of Wednesday. The likely locations of the coldest
lows/wind chills should emerge tomorrow afternoon. Regardless,
these cold temperatures will allow for accumulated precipitation
to remain on surfaces/roadways and also may result in refreezing
of any lingering liquid.
Preparations for this historic storm should be finalized as soon
as possible. Be prepared to potentially need to stay where you
are throughout the day on Tuesday and into early Wednesday as
travel conditions may not be safe. Be sure to consider any final
actions needed to protect the "4 Ps" - People, Plants, Pets, and
Pipes.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
We will kick off the long-term forecast with the mention of the VERY
cold temperatures expected Wednesday morning. Lows on Wednesday
morning will be in the teens for inland areas and in the low 20s
along the coast. Wind Chills will be flirting with the criteria for
an Extreme Cold Warning. Local criteria for the Extreme Cold Warning
is Wind Chills or Air Temperatures of 15F or less for Harris
Counties and counties south of Harris. For those north of Harris
County the criteria is 10F or less.
That being said, we are going to stick with the Extreme Cold Watch
for the time being and consider upgrading to an Extreme Cold Warning
with the overnight package or during the day Tuesday. These colder
temperatures are heavily dependent on where the bulk of snow/ice
falls.
Road conditions will likely remain hazardous Wednesday morning,
especially since temperatures on Tuesday will struggle to get above
freezing for most locations (if they do reach to above freezing, it
wouldn`t be for long). That means whatever melting does occur, and
whatever is still frozen will refreeze/remain frozen with the
subfreezing temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Luckily, we are expected to get into the 40s across the area
Wednesday afternoon, so this should improve travel conditions during
the afternoon hours. Be mindful that any residual wet spots on
roadways/bridges/overpasses will refreeze Wednesday night as we dip
back into subfreezing temperatures.
Near the end of the week an upper level trough will deepen from the
Four Corners and will eject another cold front towards SE Texas.
Fear not, despite another cold front temperatures are still expected
to gradually warm as onshore flow quickly returns late Friday into
early Saturday. All in all, freezing temperatures at night/early
morning should come to an end Thursday night into Friday morning.
Fridays lows will be much warmer as temperatures jump into the
upper 30s to low 40s. By the weekend, low temperatures will be in
the 50s.
Similarly, highs will see a similar upward trend with highs in the
60s over the weekend. With the return of onshore flow, we will also
see the return of moisture ahead of the next frontal boundary. This
will result in an increased chance of showers over the weekend. With
it being later in the period there is uncertainty on whether or not
the front will push through the area. At the very least, model
consensus is still trending to a rainy weekend.
Adams
-
Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
Have a hard time believing that when it's 10 pm and I still haven't seen nothing
Back to snow grains here. Wet Bulb cooling still has some work to do. Pesky warm air!!
31 DP26
31 DP26
You weren't supposed to until later anyway. It started early in some places. Chill outBrazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 9:54 pm Have a hard time believing that when it's 10 pm and I still haven't seen nothing
I believe all of this mischief is just a precursor to what's to form. If anything, there's way more moisture further north and west than what all the CAMs were showing. The fact it's already all snow and sleet plus all that moisture, when the main event gets going it could be pretty gnarly out. Caveat of course being if you get caught in a dry slot between heavier bands.Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 9:54 pm Have a hard time believing that when it's 10 pm and I still haven't seen nothing
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
30 degrees here, finally getting a sleet/snow mix!
Yee frickin' haw!
DP up to 26 here and humidity up to 74 with a temp down to 33.2 now. Sleet with barely any accumulation on raised surfaces. Basically just enough to make everything wet for the snow to stick. Bring it on!
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Mesoscale convection notice hoisted for most of us.
I’m about to leave and go hunting
I’m about to leave and go hunting
Team #NeverSummer
Ugh.. screw Ohio State!
Mesoscale Discussion 0043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Areas affected...portions of south into southeast and eastern Texas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 210400Z - 210800Z
SUMMARY...Wintry precipitation rates should increase through tonight
across southeastern portions of Texas, with sleet and freezing rain
accumulations likely to continue.
DISCUSSION...700 mb WAA continues to increase atop a sub-freezing
airmass over southeastern TX as a positively tilted mid-level trough
glances the region to the north. Meanwhile, the dry low-levels
support wet-bulb temperatures well below freezing given ample
evaporative cooling/sublimation potential. Over the next couple of
hours, continued cooling of the surface-850 mb layer, due to both
925 mb CAA and evaporative cooling, should support an increased
potential for wintry precipitation (as evident based on recent
reports of ice accretion and sleet accumulations).
The greatest near-term potential for freezing rain/ice accretion
will be along a zone roughly from Wilson to Tyler Counties, where
surface observations show surface temperatures already cooled below
32 F. Latest high-resolution guidance shows sleet/freezing rates
peaking sometime after 06Z, including over portions of deep-south
TX. With time, at least moderate snowfall rates may eventually be
observed closer to the southeast TX coastline.
..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Areas affected...portions of south into southeast and eastern Texas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 210400Z - 210800Z
SUMMARY...Wintry precipitation rates should increase through tonight
across southeastern portions of Texas, with sleet and freezing rain
accumulations likely to continue.
DISCUSSION...700 mb WAA continues to increase atop a sub-freezing
airmass over southeastern TX as a positively tilted mid-level trough
glances the region to the north. Meanwhile, the dry low-levels
support wet-bulb temperatures well below freezing given ample
evaporative cooling/sublimation potential. Over the next couple of
hours, continued cooling of the surface-850 mb layer, due to both
925 mb CAA and evaporative cooling, should support an increased
potential for wintry precipitation (as evident based on recent
reports of ice accretion and sleet accumulations).
The greatest near-term potential for freezing rain/ice accretion
will be along a zone roughly from Wilson to Tyler Counties, where
surface observations show surface temperatures already cooled below
32 F. Latest high-resolution guidance shows sleet/freezing rates
peaking sometime after 06Z, including over portions of deep-south
TX. With time, at least moderate snowfall rates may eventually be
observed closer to the southeast TX coastline.
..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Dew point here in cypress up to 25, temps 30.4 and humidity is 84%. Getting a pretty good dusting. Paving still has a ways to cool before it starts to stick though at 37*.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
heavy sleet accumulating rapidly on my drive way and cars