January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman666]

Here we go.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoan ... ?sector=15#

Wow nice link. The CAPE looks pretty good through south Texas. I would expect things to explode pretty soon.

Thanks. SPC has a Mesoanalysis page. I am hoping so, I have been waiting for our first MCD since about 10:30.

[srainhoutx]

Well it appears we have a busted forecast as the Upper Low (short wave) is moving much slower than expected by guidance and not as strong. Some developing thunderstorms are noted at this hour S and W of San Antonio heading E. Light rain looks likely most of the day and perhaps a small, but brief window for some slightly stronger storms in the afternoon. Heavy rainfall no longer looks to be an issue. We will see as this has not been handled well by the models. A Slight Risk for severe storms, mostly for some small hail remains in place per the SPC throughout the day.

[redneckweather]

My back deck wasn't even wet when I got up early this morning. It is just now starting to sprinkle. Definitely a busted forecast with just light to moderate rain moving in from the west.

[sleetstorm]

Well it appears we have a busted forecast as the Upper Low (short wave) is moving much slower than expected by guidance and not as strong. Some developing thunderstorms are noted at this hour S and W of San Antonio heading E. Light rain looks likely most of the day and perhaps a small, but brief window for some slightly stronger storms in the afternoon. Heavy rainfall no longer looks to be an issue. We will see as this has not been handled well by the models. A Slight Risk for severe storms, mostly for some small hail remains in place per the SPC throughout the day.

I was wondering why I was not being woke up by any thunderstorms this morning & why thunderstorms are not as numerous on the radar.

[jasons2k]

My back deck wasn't even wet when I got up early this morning. It is just now starting to sprinkle. Definitely a busted forecast with just light to moderate rain moving in from the west.

I thought the same thing too! My driveway just had a few sprinkles. Wow - it's also a reminder that if they busted so badly in the short-term, imagine how complicated it gets for later this week!

[redneckweather]

it's also a reminder that if they busted so badly in the short-term, imagine how complicated it gets for later this week!

No kidding. Weather is gonna do what weather is gonna do. I said this on a weather forum back during Claudette when she took a hard left and hit Port O' Connor. This really pissed off some dude named DT who I had it out with. He was pissed more than anything because his forecast busted. Gotta love mother nature.

[tireman4]

2:07:03...wow course record....wow...in this muck and mire......congrats!!!! Houston Marathon!!!!

[biggerbyte]

Wow! Where's the beef? What was that? The models were wrong? I'm glad the marathon was not cancelled. Lol

Oh well! This thread is about to close. Let's move on now to the February thread where I see we have multiple pages of model forecast discussions.

Have a good day, fellows.

[Andrew]

Just got back from the marathon and the rain really wasn't that bad. The only problem I could see was the wet ground. Besides that everyone looked pretty happy.

[srainhoutx]

Storms are beginning to fire mostly N and E of the DT Houston area as the Upper Low begins to progress E bound through Central TX...

[wxman666]

CAP = My enemy.

[tireman4]

Just got back from the marathon and the rain really wasn't that bad. The only problem I could see was the wet ground. Besides that everyone looked pretty happy.

Ehhh, not really, The humidity WAS way too high. Not good. I ran 7 miles in this muck this morning. 7:28 pace was ok...but again..it was rough. A friend of mine had his asthma act up and had to drop to half marathon and another friend who was going for 4:30 , ended up with a 5:10. They (marathon folks) flew the yellow flag all day ( which is use caution)

[wxman666]

Seeing some healthy towering cumulus/cumulonimbus here in my backyard...radar is lighting up quite a bit too. We've had quit a bit of sun/heating and moisture today in Cypress.

[srainhoutx]

Seeing some healthy towering cumulus/cumulonimbus here in my backyard...radar is lighting up quite a bit too. We've had quit a bit of sun/heating and moisture today in Cypress.

Yep. Nice view from my backyard as well. The Upper Low is passing to our N now. Nice evening to sit outside and enjoy the warmth, while it lasts.

[wxman666]

Seeing some healthy towering cumulus/cumulonimbus here in my backyard...radar is lighting up quite a bit too. We've had quit a bit of sun/heating and moisture today in Cypress.

Yep. Nice view from my backyard as well. The Upper Low is passing to our N now. Nice evening to sit outside and enjoy the warmth, while it lasts.

Definitely. Hoping to see a few lightning strikes with these clouds.

[wxman666]

Woo! Got my wish. We've got some cloud to cloud strikes going here.

[tireman4]

And you are where?

[wxman666]

And you are where?

Cypress area. Hey y'all check out the HGX Doppler.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

And you are where?

Cypress area. Hey y'all check out the HGX Doppler.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

Update your profile and include your general location. Obs become important when we have 'events' and it will help our Pros and members to know where you're located.

[Ptarmigan]

I am looking at Doppler radar and notice storms north of Houston. Looks like they are moving south slowly. Any comments on it?