November 2025

[Cromagnum]

What time Saturday is the gnarly stuff supposed to blow through? Gonna be at my folks' in Crosby and probably hitting the road back to Georgetown by 5-6 PM

[tireman4]

What time Saturday is the gnarly stuff supposed to blow through? Gonna be at my folks' in Crosby and probably hitting the road back to Georgetown by 5-6 PM

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[Rip76]

What a great morning.

And another good day for some college football.

[snowman65]

December looks boring, tempwise... js

[tireman4]

There maybe discrete cells along and before the front. The bulk shear ( 0-6 km/ 30-40 knot jet) looks suitable enough. CAPE is meh, but could support hail, downburst winds and brief spin up tornadoes in the CWA.

[Brazoriatx979]

December looks boring, tempwise... js

All this talk about the coming cold is jusy talk. I believe its going to be a pretty mild winter with maybe a cool not cold front every 2 or 3 weeks with mild temps. Bummer as always

[Cpv17]

A lot of casuals on here for so called people who are weather enthusiasts.

[tireman4]

Today

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Discussion 2241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292117Z - 292315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway across north-central TX and across parts of the TX Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are expected to generally remain sub-severe, but a few strong/severe storms are possible.

DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway near the DFW metro area where a cold front is impinging on northward returning moisture. Modest moisture advection will likely continue immediately ahead of the front across portions of central and northeastern TX for the next several hours, supporting around 500 J/kg MLCAPE and the potential for additional thunderstorms. Despite strong mid-level flow over the region, recent ACARS soundings and RAP/HRRR forecast soundings show very modest/narrow buoyancy profiles on the northern fringe of the returning moisture. This, along with the undercutting nature of the front, should hinder overall updraft intensities. Nonetheless, damaging winds, and perhaps instances of severe hail, appear possible as storms spread east/southeast given a favorable kinematic environment.

Further south, shallow convective showers have been percolating over the past 1-2 hours along and north of the I-10 corridor west/northwest of the Houston metro within a low-level confluence zone/residual gravity wave. Cumulus has gradually become more cellular within this zone and at least one attempt at deep convection is noted as temperatures warm into the upper 70s and low 80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. High-res models continue to show considerable spread/uncertainty on thunderstorm coverage within this zone in the 21-00 UTC time frame, but the warm temperatures and persistent, albeit weak, mesoscale lift suggest that at least a few additional attempts at deep convection should be anticipated prior to 00z and the arrival of the cold front later tonight. If deep convection can mature, better buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and slightly better low-level helicity near the surface warm front may support a relatively higher chance for strong/severe thunderstorms, including the potential for a brief tornado, though confidence in this potential is low.

Given the modest environment across northern/central TX and uncertainty pertaining to thunderstorm coverage along the Coastal Plain, watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Gleason.. 11/29/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1254
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292151Z - 300351Z

Summary...Thunderstorms near Houston TX are expected to grow upscale and potentially backbuild/train with time. Hourly amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 5" could lead to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Satellite and radar imagery indicate the formation of showers and thunderstorms near and east of a baroclinic zone oriented northwest-southeast across Southeast TX within a region of 850 hPa confluence near I-10. ML/MU CAPE to the west and southwest is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is near 40 kts, which has led to right movers near IAH itself. The atmosphere is saturated, considering precipitable water values (1.25-1.5" per GPS data) within a region of 5630 meter 1000-500 hPa thickness values. Hourly rain amounts of are up to 0.5-1" in the past hour near Stagecoach TX, as of the time of this discussion's writing.

The 18z HREF moreso than the 12z REFS indicates the continued building of thunderstorms in this area, with some further increase in convective coverage, which may show backbuilding, training character with time. Instability could erode/retreat westward with time depending upon the degree of convective coverage, essentially stalling the front west of Houston. Cell mergers are also possible as less organized convection moves more northeast while more organized convection moves more to the east. Given the parameters, hourly amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are possible over the next several hours, with the magnitude most in line with the 12z ARW and 20z HRRR guidance. There is a chance late in the MPD period of convection trying to form across northeast TX presently near and ahead of an advancing cold front approaching the southeast TX convective area, which could lead to more cell mergers at or beyond 04z. Since the 12z ARW and 18z HREF are closer to the convective evolution thus far, used their guidance for the defined MPD area. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding are considered possible, particularly in the Houston metropolitan area.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner ( thinks severe threat is lower..hail..downburst winds)

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner

[tireman4]

Travis Herzog

[Cromagnum]

Looking pretty salty for you guys down south here in a couple hours.

[Cpv17]

Looking pretty salty for you guys down south here in a couple hours.

Yep, looks like I’m gonna get hammered.

[tireman4]

Here we go

[Rip76]

The Woodlands has been getting hammered for about an hour.

[sambucol]

Lightning strike took out power at my church in Mont Belvieu, Hillside Church. I play in the worship band there, and no services this morning.

[jasons2k]

48° here after 3.26” from yesterday and overnight. Briefly lost power (like a minute).

Glad to see the forecasted overnight lows have trended a little upward (38 here) so I can avoid the seasonal freeze prep for another week.