346
FXUS64 KHGX 221115
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Showers/thunderstorms continue today, some capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall possible.
- Rain chances lower over the weekend, but should rise again next
week as another weak boundary approaches the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Another day of wetter conditions is on the tap today as a weak
surface boundary remains in the vicinity while a number of
shortwaves pass overhead. Combined with deep moisture and the slew
of mesoscale boundary interactions, SE Texas should see
conditions similar to that of yesterday. CAMs are showing greater
coverage with showers/storms this afternoon than in previous
runs, though it still may be a tad underdone. The environment
remains conducive for high precipitation efficiency, which may
result in some strong downpours and possibly locally heavy
rainfall at times. WPC still has SE Texas under a Marginal (level
1/4) Risk of Excessive rainfall for today, generally for areas
south of Huntsville and closer to the coast. Most areas should see
less than half an inch of rainfall, though any stronger storms
could produce locally higher totals up to 2-3" in some isolated
spots, much like what occurred yesterday.
Ridging over the Desert Southwest should strengthen over the
weekend. Saturday could still see some modest shower/storm coverage,
especially as models are now keeping deep moisture in place over SE
Texas a tad longer than previously forecast. CAMs may still be
underdoing activity during this period slightly, though most
showers/storms should be confined to the coastline/nearshore
waters. Still, PoPs trend downward throughout the course of the
weekend, with high temperatures gradually trending upwards. An
upper level low/trough over the Great Lakes/Quebec/Ontario is
progged to push another frontal boundary & round of shortwaves
towards SE Texas around the Tuesday/Wednesday next week. With
this, the forecast reverses course, trading heat for greater rain
chances through Thursday as this weak boundary stalls out over our
area.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Trof axis and remnant outflows lit back up near the coast
overnight. Some rain and isolated thunder extends into the metro
area. Suspect we`ll see a lull in activity as we head into mid
morning followed by more scattered development inland this
afternoon...which should eventually sag back toward the metro area
later in the day and coastal areas this evening. Hires models have
been struggling to keep up, but considering the pattern remains
about the same and most is driven on the small scale and boundary
interactions, it`s not overly surprising. The more robust cells
have had a history of producing strong wind gusts, reduced
visibility in heavy downpours...and today will likely not be much
different. So other than knowing there will be some storms
around, pinpointing the specifics at any individual terminal is
difficult to say the least. Outside of convective activity, VFR
conditions and light winds will be the rule. Rinse/repeat tonight-
Saturday. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Conditions will be fairly calm with 1-3 ft seas and seabreeze-
landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots (offshore/northwesterly
early in the morning, then onshore/southeasterly in the afternoon).
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be a daily
possibility, primarily during the daytime hours. Coverage of
showers/storms should be greatest today and early this weekend
due to a weak boundary near the coast. Rain chances later
decrease over the weekend. Locally higher winds and seas are
expected near any thunderstorms that develop.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 73 93 72 / 40 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 91 75 91 75 / 60 40 60 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 81 / 70 70 70 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
August 2025
Today is the third time this week where a 70% chance of rain had been advertised for days and then the day of, the morning update posts and it’s lowered, again.
Seabreeze or not Seabreeze?
I'll assume the action will be south of 1*5.
I'll assume the action will be south of 1*5.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0974
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1212 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Areas affected...southeast Texas, southwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 221611Z - 222211Z
Summary...Slow-moving convection continues to expand in coverage this morning, with areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates becoming likely beneath the strongest storms. Flash flooding is expected.
Discussion...Deep convection has been focused mainly along coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana for most of the morning. Over the past hour or so, storms has materialized just inland across the discussion area (nearer to I-10) due to 1) strong surface heating/destabilization, 2) abundant moisture (2.3 inch PW), and 3) convergence along a weak front across the region (generally from Houston Metro east to Baton Rouge, LA). Kinematics/steering flow aloft are very weak (<5 knots), suggestive of slow-moving cells/clusters that are outflow dominant and propagate erratically through the afternoon. A few of these clusters were forming near Lake Charles and just north of Houston while already producing spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.
With continued surface heating, convective clusters are expected to expand in coverage. The orientation of storms relative to outflow from prior activity over the Gulf suggests potential for several cell mergers as well. 2-3 inch/hr rain rates will eventually materialize, and may impact populated/flashy urban centers such as Lake Charles, Beaumont, and Houston through 20Z. FFGs near those areas are as low as 1-1.5 inches/hr and should be readily exceeded. Surrounding areas have higher FFGs (in the 3 inch/hr range) that should still be exceeded as stronger convection develops through the morning and early afternoon. Areas of flash flooding are expected given the developing scenario.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1212 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Areas affected...southeast Texas, southwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 221611Z - 222211Z
Summary...Slow-moving convection continues to expand in coverage this morning, with areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates becoming likely beneath the strongest storms. Flash flooding is expected.
Discussion...Deep convection has been focused mainly along coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana for most of the morning. Over the past hour or so, storms has materialized just inland across the discussion area (nearer to I-10) due to 1) strong surface heating/destabilization, 2) abundant moisture (2.3 inch PW), and 3) convergence along a weak front across the region (generally from Houston Metro east to Baton Rouge, LA). Kinematics/steering flow aloft are very weak (<5 knots), suggestive of slow-moving cells/clusters that are outflow dominant and propagate erratically through the afternoon. A few of these clusters were forming near Lake Charles and just north of Houston while already producing spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.
With continued surface heating, convective clusters are expected to expand in coverage. The orientation of storms relative to outflow from prior activity over the Gulf suggests potential for several cell mergers as well. 2-3 inch/hr rain rates will eventually materialize, and may impact populated/flashy urban centers such as Lake Charles, Beaumont, and Houston through 20Z. FFGs near those areas are as low as 1-1.5 inches/hr and should be readily exceeded. Surrounding areas have higher FFGs (in the 3 inch/hr range) that should still be exceeded as stronger convection develops through the morning and early afternoon. Areas of flash flooding are expected given the developing scenario.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
- Attachments
-
- 32E724F1-D0FE-4FBE-BD17-31DBBC1D6EC0.png (1.98 MiB) Viewed 176 times
Satellite and stationary front.
- Attachments
-
- IMG_4114.jpeg (257.25 KiB) Viewed 168 times
In Lake Charles at the Nugget for the lady’s 50th.
No pool for us
No pool for us
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6444
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
600
FXUS64 KHGX 221650
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Showers/thunderstorms continue today with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Areas of minor flooding is expected, but a few
instances of flash flooding cannot be rule out
- Rain chances lower over the weekend, but isolated showers and
storms will still be possible.
- Increase in coverage of the showers and storms should rise again
midweek next week as another weak boundary approaches the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
A stationary boundary situated over the region has led to the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning,
which are expected to persist through at least this evening.
Exactly where the storms are developing is largely dependent on
boundary interactions from preceding storms, so really almost
anywhere in the CWA will have a fair shot of seeing a thunderstorm
today. And where these storms develop, they are producing locally
heavy rainfall with rain rates of 1-3"+ per hour, and storm
movement is almost zero. This will lead to areas of minor
flooding, mainly ponding in area of poor drainage, but a few
instances of flash flooding cannot be rule out if rainfall is
heavy enough or if multiple storms move over the same area. The
trend today has been that the storms that do develop and produce
heavy rainfall end up raining themselves out within 30-45 minutes
of development, which has helped ward off most flooding concerns
so far. Thunderstorm activity is expected to wane after sunset
with the loss of daytime heating, but some redevelopment over the
coast is expected overnight tonight.
The near stationary boundary over the area today will still be
near the coast tomorrow, and with PWATs still around 2", it is
likely that there will be additional pop-up showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage will likely peak during the afternoon
hours along the coast where the highest PWATs are located. Rain
chances lower Sunday and Monday, but do not become zero, and
isolated afternoon is possible along the sea breeze each day.
Another weak, slow moving boundary is expected to approach the
region Tuesday into Wednesday of next week leading to an increase
in shower and thunderstorm chances. This boundary may eventually
end up stalling along the Gulf coast, which combined with weak
disturbances embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will lead to
continued rain chances through the remainder of the week.
As for temperatures, Sunday and Monday will likely be the warmest
days of the forecast with the least coverage of showers and storms
expected leading to temperatures rising into the mid 90s for much
the area area. Otherwise, expected continued summer-time heat
with highs generally in the 90s and lows in the 70s.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Trof axis and remnant outflows lit back up near the coast
overnight. Some rain and isolated thunder extends into the metro
area. Suspect we`ll see a lull in activity as we head into mid
morning followed by more scattered development inland this
afternoon...which should eventually sag back toward the metro area
later in the day and coastal areas this evening. Hires models have
been struggling to keep up, but considering the pattern remains
about the same and most is driven on the small scale and boundary
interactions, it`s not overly surprising. The more robust cells
have had a history of producing strong wind gusts, reduced
visibility in heavy downpours...and today will likely not be much
different. So other than knowing there will be some storms
around, pinpointing the specifics at any individual terminal is
difficult to say the least. Outside of convective activity, VFR
conditions and light winds will be the rule. Rinse/repeat tonight-
Saturday. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
A diffuse frontal boundary will meander along the coast through
Saturday, but with a very weak pressure gradient in place we will
continue to see a prevailing landbreeze and seabreeze
circulation. Expect light offshore wind directions late at night
and in the mornings followed by light onshore winds in the
afternoon and evenings with the passing seabreeze. A daily risk of
scattered showers and thunderstorms continues through the weekend
and through much of next week. Coverage will likely be the lowest
Sunday into Monday as our current stalled boundary moves out of
the area, but then increase Tuesday and beyond as another diffuse
boundary moves in from the north. Locally higher winds and
rougher seas will be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 93 72 95 / 20 40 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 91 75 94 / 50 40 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 88 81 90 / 50 70 50 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 221650
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Showers/thunderstorms continue today with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Areas of minor flooding is expected, but a few
instances of flash flooding cannot be rule out
- Rain chances lower over the weekend, but isolated showers and
storms will still be possible.
- Increase in coverage of the showers and storms should rise again
midweek next week as another weak boundary approaches the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
A stationary boundary situated over the region has led to the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning,
which are expected to persist through at least this evening.
Exactly where the storms are developing is largely dependent on
boundary interactions from preceding storms, so really almost
anywhere in the CWA will have a fair shot of seeing a thunderstorm
today. And where these storms develop, they are producing locally
heavy rainfall with rain rates of 1-3"+ per hour, and storm
movement is almost zero. This will lead to areas of minor
flooding, mainly ponding in area of poor drainage, but a few
instances of flash flooding cannot be rule out if rainfall is
heavy enough or if multiple storms move over the same area. The
trend today has been that the storms that do develop and produce
heavy rainfall end up raining themselves out within 30-45 minutes
of development, which has helped ward off most flooding concerns
so far. Thunderstorm activity is expected to wane after sunset
with the loss of daytime heating, but some redevelopment over the
coast is expected overnight tonight.
The near stationary boundary over the area today will still be
near the coast tomorrow, and with PWATs still around 2", it is
likely that there will be additional pop-up showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage will likely peak during the afternoon
hours along the coast where the highest PWATs are located. Rain
chances lower Sunday and Monday, but do not become zero, and
isolated afternoon is possible along the sea breeze each day.
Another weak, slow moving boundary is expected to approach the
region Tuesday into Wednesday of next week leading to an increase
in shower and thunderstorm chances. This boundary may eventually
end up stalling along the Gulf coast, which combined with weak
disturbances embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will lead to
continued rain chances through the remainder of the week.
As for temperatures, Sunday and Monday will likely be the warmest
days of the forecast with the least coverage of showers and storms
expected leading to temperatures rising into the mid 90s for much
the area area. Otherwise, expected continued summer-time heat
with highs generally in the 90s and lows in the 70s.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Trof axis and remnant outflows lit back up near the coast
overnight. Some rain and isolated thunder extends into the metro
area. Suspect we`ll see a lull in activity as we head into mid
morning followed by more scattered development inland this
afternoon...which should eventually sag back toward the metro area
later in the day and coastal areas this evening. Hires models have
been struggling to keep up, but considering the pattern remains
about the same and most is driven on the small scale and boundary
interactions, it`s not overly surprising. The more robust cells
have had a history of producing strong wind gusts, reduced
visibility in heavy downpours...and today will likely not be much
different. So other than knowing there will be some storms
around, pinpointing the specifics at any individual terminal is
difficult to say the least. Outside of convective activity, VFR
conditions and light winds will be the rule. Rinse/repeat tonight-
Saturday. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
A diffuse frontal boundary will meander along the coast through
Saturday, but with a very weak pressure gradient in place we will
continue to see a prevailing landbreeze and seabreeze
circulation. Expect light offshore wind directions late at night
and in the mornings followed by light onshore winds in the
afternoon and evenings with the passing seabreeze. A daily risk of
scattered showers and thunderstorms continues through the weekend
and through much of next week. Coverage will likely be the lowest
Sunday into Monday as our current stalled boundary moves out of
the area, but then increase Tuesday and beyond as another diffuse
boundary moves in from the north. Locally higher winds and
rougher seas will be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 93 72 95 / 20 40 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 91 75 94 / 50 40 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 88 81 90 / 50 70 50 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler
Heavey rainfall at A&M but the donut hold held at home. Maybe a tenth of an inch.
1.97”