Let me know if y’all want to meet up for a beer or 9
Geaux Tigers.
October 2024
Any of you closet LSU fans going to the game this weekend? I’ll be there for my first A&M trip.
Let me know if y’all want to meet up for a beer or 9
Geaux Tigers.
Let me know if y’all want to meet up for a beer or 9
Geaux Tigers.
Here is a drought update from Jeff. I’m afraid this won’t just be a “flash drought” though…
Flash drought continues to deepen and expand across the state and locally across all of SE TX.
After a very wet late spring and early to mid summer, below average rainfall began to appear in August and September and has greatly intensified in October. In fact, no site in SE TX has recorded rainfall for the month of October which is impressive given October is usually our second wettest month behind May. Although the recent dryness has been intense…so was the wetness earlier in the year and all climate sites remain well above normal on rainfall for 2024 except for Hobby Airport and Sugarland.
2024 Rainfall thru 10/23 and departures:
College Station: 39.94 +6.83
BUSH IAH: 51.20 +9.09
Hobby: 44.02 -1.50
Galveston: 56.64 +19.32
Conroe: 54.74 +14.51
Sugarland: 40.60 +.04
The last measurable rainfall at BUSH IAH was September 24 (.20 of an inch) and the last rainfall greater than .50 of an inch was recorded on September 6 (.64 of an inch). No climate sites in SE TX have recorded rainfall in the month of October.
October 2024 rainfall and departures:
College Station: 0.00 -3.49
BUSH IAH: 0.00 -3.82
Hobby: 0.00 -4.12
Galveston: 0.00 -3.66
Conroe: 0.00 -3.67
Sugarland: 0.00 -3.29
Fire:
While the recent dryness has been relatively short thus far compared to other dry spells…it has been intense and accompanied by much warmer than normal late summer and early fall temperatures. This has quickly resulted in drought degradation across the entire region and vegetation health quickly declining. The result has been an increase in wildland fire activity in recent weeks especially when drier air masses move over the region along with gusty winds. As the area moves deeper into the fall and winter months more frequent and stronger cold fronts will bring stronger winds and much drier air masses across the area and without any significant wetting rainfall fire weather conditions will quickly elevate. KDBI values which can be used for wildland fire risk show significant values over the area. The scale is from 0 (completely saturated) to 800 (completely void of moisture to 8 inches deep). Values above 650 indicate an increased risk of wildland fire and values over 700 indicate a significant risk. Increasing values indicate larger fuel loads drying…fine fuels (grasses) are readily available to burn and have slightly larger loads due to the wetness in summer resulting in a robust growing period. Larger ladder fuels (brush) are starting to show signs of drought stress and dryness and a few recent fires have noted large fuels (trees…especially juniper and pine) with some burn spread and crown runs. Additionally, spring and summer storms and Hurricane Beryl downed a significant number of limbs and trees which remain today. These limbs and trees have now dried and are adding to the fuel sources in portions of SE TX into E TX.
Average KBDI Values:
Austin: 735
Brazoria: 630
Brazos: 744
Chambers: 693
Colorado: 705
Fort Bend: 706
Galveston: 620
Grimes: 730
Harris: 727
Liberty: 739
Matagorda: 615
Montgomery: 715
San Jacinto: 717
Walker: 691
Washington: 738
Wharton: 689
Image
Water Supply:
Many SE TX lakes were in flood operations and releasing large flows late this spring including record releases at Lake Livingston which surpassed Harvey. Many of these same water supply lakes are currently now below their conservation pool levels and declining due to the late season heat and lack of rainfall. Water supply concerns are greater in central Texas where rainfall earlier in the year was much less and an ongoing multi-year hydrologic drought continues in the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio and westward. While late summer rains helped flows into the highland lakes…Lake Travis remains dangerously low.
Statewide conservation storage is at 71.2% which is down from a peak in late July of 76.6%, however this is higher than the 64.5% at this time last year (10/2023).
Lake level departures (ft) and % of capacity:
Conroe: -1.32 (93.8%)
Houston: -.25 (97.8%)
Livingston: -1.72 (91.9%)
Somerville: -1.89 (86.4%)
Texana: -2.83 (82.8%)
Travis: -41.90 (45.0%)
Long Range Forecast:
With the formation of La Nina in the eastern Pacific late this summer…warm and dry conditions are becoming increasingly likely over Texas and the southern plains into our fall and winter months. There remains some debate exactly how strong the current La Nina episode will become with better chances of a weak to possibly moderate La Nina than a strong La Nina. Such global oscillations tend to support southern plains drought and the developing La Nina likely has some fingerprint on the current dryness over Texas. Below normal rainfall is likely through early 2025 along with above normal temperatures. This will continue to worsen ongoing drought conditions with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicating drought development or persistence across all of Texas into early 2025. There are some indications that at least a slight chance of rainfall will be possible around Halloween into the first week of November…but guidance has been generally underwhelming on amounts thus far.
It should be noted that while La Nina winters tend to be mild with above average temperatures, short but significant cold air intrusions into the southern plains can occur in such patterns.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
Jeff.Lindner@hcfcd.hctx.net | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Flash drought continues to deepen and expand across the state and locally across all of SE TX.
After a very wet late spring and early to mid summer, below average rainfall began to appear in August and September and has greatly intensified in October. In fact, no site in SE TX has recorded rainfall for the month of October which is impressive given October is usually our second wettest month behind May. Although the recent dryness has been intense…so was the wetness earlier in the year and all climate sites remain well above normal on rainfall for 2024 except for Hobby Airport and Sugarland.
2024 Rainfall thru 10/23 and departures:
College Station: 39.94 +6.83
BUSH IAH: 51.20 +9.09
Hobby: 44.02 -1.50
Galveston: 56.64 +19.32
Conroe: 54.74 +14.51
Sugarland: 40.60 +.04
The last measurable rainfall at BUSH IAH was September 24 (.20 of an inch) and the last rainfall greater than .50 of an inch was recorded on September 6 (.64 of an inch). No climate sites in SE TX have recorded rainfall in the month of October.
October 2024 rainfall and departures:
College Station: 0.00 -3.49
BUSH IAH: 0.00 -3.82
Hobby: 0.00 -4.12
Galveston: 0.00 -3.66
Conroe: 0.00 -3.67
Sugarland: 0.00 -3.29
Fire:
While the recent dryness has been relatively short thus far compared to other dry spells…it has been intense and accompanied by much warmer than normal late summer and early fall temperatures. This has quickly resulted in drought degradation across the entire region and vegetation health quickly declining. The result has been an increase in wildland fire activity in recent weeks especially when drier air masses move over the region along with gusty winds. As the area moves deeper into the fall and winter months more frequent and stronger cold fronts will bring stronger winds and much drier air masses across the area and without any significant wetting rainfall fire weather conditions will quickly elevate. KDBI values which can be used for wildland fire risk show significant values over the area. The scale is from 0 (completely saturated) to 800 (completely void of moisture to 8 inches deep). Values above 650 indicate an increased risk of wildland fire and values over 700 indicate a significant risk. Increasing values indicate larger fuel loads drying…fine fuels (grasses) are readily available to burn and have slightly larger loads due to the wetness in summer resulting in a robust growing period. Larger ladder fuels (brush) are starting to show signs of drought stress and dryness and a few recent fires have noted large fuels (trees…especially juniper and pine) with some burn spread and crown runs. Additionally, spring and summer storms and Hurricane Beryl downed a significant number of limbs and trees which remain today. These limbs and trees have now dried and are adding to the fuel sources in portions of SE TX into E TX.
Average KBDI Values:
Austin: 735
Brazoria: 630
Brazos: 744
Chambers: 693
Colorado: 705
Fort Bend: 706
Galveston: 620
Grimes: 730
Harris: 727
Liberty: 739
Matagorda: 615
Montgomery: 715
San Jacinto: 717
Walker: 691
Washington: 738
Wharton: 689
Image
Water Supply:
Many SE TX lakes were in flood operations and releasing large flows late this spring including record releases at Lake Livingston which surpassed Harvey. Many of these same water supply lakes are currently now below their conservation pool levels and declining due to the late season heat and lack of rainfall. Water supply concerns are greater in central Texas where rainfall earlier in the year was much less and an ongoing multi-year hydrologic drought continues in the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio and westward. While late summer rains helped flows into the highland lakes…Lake Travis remains dangerously low.
Statewide conservation storage is at 71.2% which is down from a peak in late July of 76.6%, however this is higher than the 64.5% at this time last year (10/2023).
Lake level departures (ft) and % of capacity:
Conroe: -1.32 (93.8%)
Houston: -.25 (97.8%)
Livingston: -1.72 (91.9%)
Somerville: -1.89 (86.4%)
Texana: -2.83 (82.8%)
Travis: -41.90 (45.0%)
Long Range Forecast:
With the formation of La Nina in the eastern Pacific late this summer…warm and dry conditions are becoming increasingly likely over Texas and the southern plains into our fall and winter months. There remains some debate exactly how strong the current La Nina episode will become with better chances of a weak to possibly moderate La Nina than a strong La Nina. Such global oscillations tend to support southern plains drought and the developing La Nina likely has some fingerprint on the current dryness over Texas. Below normal rainfall is likely through early 2025 along with above normal temperatures. This will continue to worsen ongoing drought conditions with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicating drought development or persistence across all of Texas into early 2025. There are some indications that at least a slight chance of rainfall will be possible around Halloween into the first week of November…but guidance has been generally underwhelming on amounts thus far.
It should be noted that while La Nina winters tend to be mild with above average temperatures, short but significant cold air intrusions into the southern plains can occur in such patterns.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
Jeff.Lindner@hcfcd.hctx.net | Twitter: @jefflindner1
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-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
234
FXUS64 KHGX 242035
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Despite having a slow mid-upper level trough moving aloft, Southeast
TX will remain rain free thanks to very dry air along the mid levels
and surface high pressure to our east. Thus, the main headline for
the next day or so will continue to be fog and warm temperatures.
For tonight, the lows will be mainly in the low 60s over areas north
of I-10, the mid to upper 60s over areas south of I-10, and in the
low 70s along the coast. Although we did see dewpoints lowering a
bit more today as the patch of dry air moved over us, the dewpoint
spreads overnight into early Friday morning could be low enough to
result in areas of fog (possibly shallow fog) again. Fog may create
hazardous driving conditions; if driving, please slow down and leave
plenty of distance ahead of you. Fog, if any, is expected to burn
off shortly after sunrise, although some spots could see it linger
through around mid morning.
For the rest of the day on Friday, expect partly cloudy to sunny
skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, which is roughly around
10 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Yay. Stepping
forward into Friday night, similar conditions are to be expected
with lows a degree or two warmer. Another night of patchy fog is
possible, mainly during the late night into early morning hours.
24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
SREF visibilities suggest a decent part of the region will be
waking up to areas of fog Saturday morning. Otherwise, the weather
pattern remains about status quo through the weekend with mid-
upper ridge extending across northern Mexico into West Texas and
surface high pressure across the Eastern Seaboard across the
northern Gulf Coast. So, temps shouldn`t be all that much
different that what we`ve seen the past several days. Rainfall
chances will be slim-none as well, except for perhaps a few east-
west moving isolated showers offshore in association with
intermittent pockets of higher PWs moving under the periphery of
llvl ridging.
Somewhat of a pattern change should take place heading into the
early and mid parts of next week. A mid-upper trof should make its
way from the west coast toward the Rockies. In the llvls, the pressure
gradient should tighten and allow some higher PW values in the
Gulf to gradually flow into the region and bring a reintroduction
to some isolated-scattered showers into the forecast by midweek.
That said, there doesn`t appear to be any large scale features or
forcing (fronts, etc) to work off of. So, wouldn`t set
expectations for rain very high just yet. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Cloud cover across CLL and 11R continues to burn off, yielding
mostly clear skies across the entire area for this afternoon.
Calm winds tonight and overnight will yield fog formation by early
morning inland, but a slightly drier airmass will keep
visibilities from decreasing as low as they did this morning. Fog
should begin to dissipate by mid-morning as southerly to
southeasterly winds increase going into the afternoon, leading to
a mostly clear day once again region-wide.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Light onshore winds and low seas will persist through the weekend.
Mariners should be on the lookout for areas of fog across inland
areas to spill into northern parts of the bay waters late Friday
night and Saturday morning. Winds and seas will be on the rise
heading into the early and middle parts of next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 66 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 242035
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Despite having a slow mid-upper level trough moving aloft, Southeast
TX will remain rain free thanks to very dry air along the mid levels
and surface high pressure to our east. Thus, the main headline for
the next day or so will continue to be fog and warm temperatures.
For tonight, the lows will be mainly in the low 60s over areas north
of I-10, the mid to upper 60s over areas south of I-10, and in the
low 70s along the coast. Although we did see dewpoints lowering a
bit more today as the patch of dry air moved over us, the dewpoint
spreads overnight into early Friday morning could be low enough to
result in areas of fog (possibly shallow fog) again. Fog may create
hazardous driving conditions; if driving, please slow down and leave
plenty of distance ahead of you. Fog, if any, is expected to burn
off shortly after sunrise, although some spots could see it linger
through around mid morning.
For the rest of the day on Friday, expect partly cloudy to sunny
skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, which is roughly around
10 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Yay. Stepping
forward into Friday night, similar conditions are to be expected
with lows a degree or two warmer. Another night of patchy fog is
possible, mainly during the late night into early morning hours.
24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
SREF visibilities suggest a decent part of the region will be
waking up to areas of fog Saturday morning. Otherwise, the weather
pattern remains about status quo through the weekend with mid-
upper ridge extending across northern Mexico into West Texas and
surface high pressure across the Eastern Seaboard across the
northern Gulf Coast. So, temps shouldn`t be all that much
different that what we`ve seen the past several days. Rainfall
chances will be slim-none as well, except for perhaps a few east-
west moving isolated showers offshore in association with
intermittent pockets of higher PWs moving under the periphery of
llvl ridging.
Somewhat of a pattern change should take place heading into the
early and mid parts of next week. A mid-upper trof should make its
way from the west coast toward the Rockies. In the llvls, the pressure
gradient should tighten and allow some higher PW values in the
Gulf to gradually flow into the region and bring a reintroduction
to some isolated-scattered showers into the forecast by midweek.
That said, there doesn`t appear to be any large scale features or
forcing (fronts, etc) to work off of. So, wouldn`t set
expectations for rain very high just yet. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Cloud cover across CLL and 11R continues to burn off, yielding
mostly clear skies across the entire area for this afternoon.
Calm winds tonight and overnight will yield fog formation by early
morning inland, but a slightly drier airmass will keep
visibilities from decreasing as low as they did this morning. Fog
should begin to dissipate by mid-morning as southerly to
southeasterly winds increase going into the afternoon, leading to
a mostly clear day once again region-wide.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Light onshore winds and low seas will persist through the weekend.
Mariners should be on the lookout for areas of fog across inland
areas to spill into northern parts of the bay waters late Friday
night and Saturday morning. Winds and seas will be on the rise
heading into the early and middle parts of next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 66 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Saw your TexAgs post. I got a tailgate for you to crash.
Message me. Cell is six one four- 678- two one one three
Team #NeverSummer
Thanks a ton. I’ll message in the AM.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:51 pmSaw your TexAgs post. I got a tailgate for you to crash.
Message me. Cell is six one four- 678- two one one three
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Sounds good
Team #NeverSummer
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
CMC 00z has heavy rain for se texas with a strong frontal passage around the 2nd, highs in the upper 50’s behind the front
Good Lord, I hope so.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:46 pm CMC 00z has heavy rain for se texas with a strong frontal passage around the 2nd, highs in the upper 50’s behind the front
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
961
FXUS64 KHGX 251126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
The last couple nights, I`ve been really wondering if I`d be able
to just copy/paste the previous night`s short term section and see
if anyone out there would notice. It was tempting. And...tonight`s
discussion isn`t going to be super different, but there are some
modest differences! It`s...not really going to impact the main
weather impacts for folks though, so this is largely a discussion
with academic interests for the nerds like me.
For most, we`re just continuing to look at heat during the day and
fog potential at night. A weak upper trough finishes its transit
across the plains early today, with ridging building up heights to
our west. At lower levels, we remain more under the influence of
ridging to our east. Meanwhile, a cold front is making its way
into the region, and will do its best to push through that over
the next couple of days. It`s probably not a big surprise to see
that with the surface front trailing the trough aloft, this thing
is going to lose steam and is unlikely to impact temperatures at
all. Forecast highs continue to be in the upper half of the 80s to
around 90.
Daily records are...again under threat today and tomorrow as a
result. With light onshore flow, Palacios and Galveston will very
likely fall short, only reaching into the lower to middle 80s with
records in the upper 80s. These coastal spots *usually* need
SW/W flow to really torch out, so no surprise there. The Houston
sites will make for a very interesting thermometer watch. Records
at both the City and Hobby are fairly soft, right around 90
degrees. But will onshore flow be enough to hold down the highs
just enough? Or do we manage to get a last gasp surge around/above
90? We should be right around the records, and I just don`t have
the confidence to say which side of the bar we`ll end up on. My
gut says we fall just a little shy of record high values, but it
is real close. College Station`s records are probably even more
under threat. I`m not explicitly forecasting records either day,
but those records at 91 and 92 are real soft...and basically
anything warmer than my forecast is a tied/broken record!
Overnight, we still continue to be lucky enough to see just dry
enough air to get some decent heat relief (also, it helps during
the day in that while the temps are near records, the humidity is
not oppressive enough to really kick the heat threat into a high
gear). Of course, dry by SE Texas standards isn`t necessarily that
dry, and so we also see the potential for fog continue tonight and
tomorrow night. With a clear sky, and very light/calm winds from
midnight onward, we should get a pretty solid environment for at
least some fog development. For what it`s worth, guidance is
hitting tonight very hard on fog potential relative to the current
early morning hours and tomorrow night. While I`m always
suspicious of models when it comes to fog development, this does
seem at least somewhat reasonable/plausible. We could see some
moisture pooling ahead of the weak front that will approach - but
not reach - our area, and could help promote fog tonight. Then, as
the front fails to move in, it may still manage to promote enough
mixing to disrupt the ideal fog formation environment. Or...they
could just be out to lunch and some meso/microscale factors I`m
not seeing right now will mess it all up. There`s a reason I live
and die by the motto #stupidfog (let`s be honest, it`s usually
die).
Luchs
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Robust mid/upper ridging over SW CONUS / NW Mexico will continue
to dominate the pattern on Sunday into Monday. Therefore, we can
expect a continuation of the short term weather into the
beginning of next week. Inland highs remain in the 85 to 90 degree
range with lows mostly in the 60s. Record high temperatures are
generally in the low 90s during this time period. Couldn`t rule
out a record or two being broken or tied, especially in our
northern counties. However, we should start to see the beginnings
of a mid/upper pattern change on Monday as the ridge slowly breaks
down.
By Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid/upper pattern will truly be in
flux as ridging builds to our east while a deep layer trough digs
southward over W CONUS. The trough is expected to induce lee side
LL pressure falls over the Central Plains, steepening the LL
gradient and enhancing southeasterly flow by Tuesday and beyond.
The resulting surge of PWs along with the a dash of PVA/lift are
expected to bring the region`s first chance of rain showers in
quite some time. We kept 20-30 PoPs for Wednesday and have 30-40
PoPs for Thursday. The Tuesday-Thursday time frame will feature
rising humidity and warmer nights. However, day time highs may
drop a few degrees.
Interestingly, the larger scale teleconnections are also
supportive of a pattern change. During most of October, the Arctic
Oscillation (AO) has been quite positive while the Pacific-North
American Pattern (PNA) has been in a negative phase. Both of
these phases support dry and warm conditions in SE TX. But now,
both oscillations are trending more neutral. In addition, the
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Tropical Pacific is
expected to progress into phase 7 in 5-10 days, which correlates
to wetter conditions across Texas. Hopefully these large scale
pattern changes will allow for some rainfall in our neck of the
woods. Our lawns could use it...
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Fog not as troublesome this morning as in recent mornings. That
said, there is still patchy fog about the area with isolated dense
spots, though the most dense reports are not at any of the TAF
sites. Should see VFR area-wide by mid-morning, with light
southerly-southeasterly winds. Winds go calm again tonight, and
the cycle begins anew.
As for fog tonight...guidance is *extremely* aggressive with VSBY
reductions. Not confident in the high-end values yet to explicitly
put these in the TAFs, but will take the somewhat unusual step of
being more aggressive with these 12Z TAFs and even include very
late TEMPOs at the usual problem terminals CXO and LBX, as well as
at IAH.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Generally light winds and low seas are expected through the
weekend. Winds begin to gradually increase from the southeast on
Monday as the pressure gradient begins to steepen between low
pressure over the Central Plains and high pressure over the
southeastern United States. Caution flags and Small Craft
Advisories may be warranted by Tuesday and Wednesday due to
increasing winds and seas. Winds and seas may subside somewhat by
Thursday. Chance of rain increases by the middle of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 66 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 67 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 71 80 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 251126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
The last couple nights, I`ve been really wondering if I`d be able
to just copy/paste the previous night`s short term section and see
if anyone out there would notice. It was tempting. And...tonight`s
discussion isn`t going to be super different, but there are some
modest differences! It`s...not really going to impact the main
weather impacts for folks though, so this is largely a discussion
with academic interests for the nerds like me.
For most, we`re just continuing to look at heat during the day and
fog potential at night. A weak upper trough finishes its transit
across the plains early today, with ridging building up heights to
our west. At lower levels, we remain more under the influence of
ridging to our east. Meanwhile, a cold front is making its way
into the region, and will do its best to push through that over
the next couple of days. It`s probably not a big surprise to see
that with the surface front trailing the trough aloft, this thing
is going to lose steam and is unlikely to impact temperatures at
all. Forecast highs continue to be in the upper half of the 80s to
around 90.
Daily records are...again under threat today and tomorrow as a
result. With light onshore flow, Palacios and Galveston will very
likely fall short, only reaching into the lower to middle 80s with
records in the upper 80s. These coastal spots *usually* need
SW/W flow to really torch out, so no surprise there. The Houston
sites will make for a very interesting thermometer watch. Records
at both the City and Hobby are fairly soft, right around 90
degrees. But will onshore flow be enough to hold down the highs
just enough? Or do we manage to get a last gasp surge around/above
90? We should be right around the records, and I just don`t have
the confidence to say which side of the bar we`ll end up on. My
gut says we fall just a little shy of record high values, but it
is real close. College Station`s records are probably even more
under threat. I`m not explicitly forecasting records either day,
but those records at 91 and 92 are real soft...and basically
anything warmer than my forecast is a tied/broken record!
Overnight, we still continue to be lucky enough to see just dry
enough air to get some decent heat relief (also, it helps during
the day in that while the temps are near records, the humidity is
not oppressive enough to really kick the heat threat into a high
gear). Of course, dry by SE Texas standards isn`t necessarily that
dry, and so we also see the potential for fog continue tonight and
tomorrow night. With a clear sky, and very light/calm winds from
midnight onward, we should get a pretty solid environment for at
least some fog development. For what it`s worth, guidance is
hitting tonight very hard on fog potential relative to the current
early morning hours and tomorrow night. While I`m always
suspicious of models when it comes to fog development, this does
seem at least somewhat reasonable/plausible. We could see some
moisture pooling ahead of the weak front that will approach - but
not reach - our area, and could help promote fog tonight. Then, as
the front fails to move in, it may still manage to promote enough
mixing to disrupt the ideal fog formation environment. Or...they
could just be out to lunch and some meso/microscale factors I`m
not seeing right now will mess it all up. There`s a reason I live
and die by the motto #stupidfog (let`s be honest, it`s usually
die).
Luchs
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Robust mid/upper ridging over SW CONUS / NW Mexico will continue
to dominate the pattern on Sunday into Monday. Therefore, we can
expect a continuation of the short term weather into the
beginning of next week. Inland highs remain in the 85 to 90 degree
range with lows mostly in the 60s. Record high temperatures are
generally in the low 90s during this time period. Couldn`t rule
out a record or two being broken or tied, especially in our
northern counties. However, we should start to see the beginnings
of a mid/upper pattern change on Monday as the ridge slowly breaks
down.
By Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid/upper pattern will truly be in
flux as ridging builds to our east while a deep layer trough digs
southward over W CONUS. The trough is expected to induce lee side
LL pressure falls over the Central Plains, steepening the LL
gradient and enhancing southeasterly flow by Tuesday and beyond.
The resulting surge of PWs along with the a dash of PVA/lift are
expected to bring the region`s first chance of rain showers in
quite some time. We kept 20-30 PoPs for Wednesday and have 30-40
PoPs for Thursday. The Tuesday-Thursday time frame will feature
rising humidity and warmer nights. However, day time highs may
drop a few degrees.
Interestingly, the larger scale teleconnections are also
supportive of a pattern change. During most of October, the Arctic
Oscillation (AO) has been quite positive while the Pacific-North
American Pattern (PNA) has been in a negative phase. Both of
these phases support dry and warm conditions in SE TX. But now,
both oscillations are trending more neutral. In addition, the
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Tropical Pacific is
expected to progress into phase 7 in 5-10 days, which correlates
to wetter conditions across Texas. Hopefully these large scale
pattern changes will allow for some rainfall in our neck of the
woods. Our lawns could use it...
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Fog not as troublesome this morning as in recent mornings. That
said, there is still patchy fog about the area with isolated dense
spots, though the most dense reports are not at any of the TAF
sites. Should see VFR area-wide by mid-morning, with light
southerly-southeasterly winds. Winds go calm again tonight, and
the cycle begins anew.
As for fog tonight...guidance is *extremely* aggressive with VSBY
reductions. Not confident in the high-end values yet to explicitly
put these in the TAFs, but will take the somewhat unusual step of
being more aggressive with these 12Z TAFs and even include very
late TEMPOs at the usual problem terminals CXO and LBX, as well as
at IAH.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Generally light winds and low seas are expected through the
weekend. Winds begin to gradually increase from the southeast on
Monday as the pressure gradient begins to steepen between low
pressure over the Central Plains and high pressure over the
southeastern United States. Caution flags and Small Craft
Advisories may be warranted by Tuesday and Wednesday due to
increasing winds and seas. Winds and seas may subside somewhat by
Thursday. Chance of rain increases by the middle of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 66 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 67 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 71 80 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self
The 0z Euro looks good for central Texas. Doesn’t really look that impressive for our part of the state though. Maybe half an inch to an inch.
06 GFS keeps the waiting for Godot FROPA stalled near the north Texas border until about the 7th, then full Lucy on rain.
CMC has a middle solution with the FROPA around the 3/4 and rain, especially east of I-45.
Euro-AI has the most progressive solution.
CMC has a middle solution with the FROPA around the 3/4 and rain, especially east of I-45.
Euro-AI has the most progressive solution.
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Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Oct 25, 2024 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
.
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-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Havent seen those shades of dark green in forever! We just have to see where the front stalls out, models arent agreeing on that, but regardless, badly needed rainfall is coming for the entire state
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Y’all…..something really weird is going on. I’m in League City and I looked up at the sky and there are these fluffy white things and some of them are even gray. So strange.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Please!!!! Fingers crossed
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
816
FXUS64 KHGX 252048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Thanks to an onshore flow regime, building midlevel heights, and
marginal cloud cover this afternoon, we continue to reach
afternoon temperatures well above seasonal normals. As of 3 PM CT,
many stations have reached the 90 degree mark, approximately 8-10
degrees above normal for late October. Light but persistent
onshore winds continue overnight as the prevailing surface high
remains situated to our east. Clearing skies, along with calm
winds and very low dewpoint differentials, will create a favorable
environment for the development of radiation fog across much of
the area. Fog may at times become dense, leading to hazardous
travel conditions during the early hours of Saturday morning.
Overnight lows should dip just below 70 inland, and remain in the
low 70s along the immediate coast.
On Saturday, a weak surface front will approach from the NW, but
largely wash out before making its way into SE TX. As such, any
isolated shower/storm activity should remain situated to our
north. Conditions will be similar to those of today with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 for most of the area. A slight decrease
in overnight lows is possible as the presence of a weak surface
low associated with the aforementioned front modifies the onshore
flow pattern to a very light and variable one. Conditions look
favorable for an additional round of fog development tomorrow.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
We`ll remain on the dry side for early next week as the eastern
periphery of the mid level high pressure lingers to our west.
Temperatures will also stay on the warm side with high
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. For Sunday and
Monday, the highs will be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees inland
and in the low to mid 80s along the coasts. Late Tuesday into
early Wednesday, a mid to upper level trough will move across the
Southern Plains displacing the mid level high out into SE CONUS. A
surge of low level moisture will filter into SE Texas from the
Gulf and increase our local PWs to around 1.6-1.8 inches on
Wednesday and may remain near these values through the end of the
work week. Thus, we may see rain chances back on our forecast
Wednesday and Thursday, in particular during the daytime hours,
where we could see some scattered showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms. With respect to temperatures, the highs will
decrease a few degrees Tuesday into Wednesday. Inland highs in
the upper 80s is expected for Tuesday, and in the low to upper 80s
on Wednesday. Models are hinting at a cold front moving into
Central TX sometime on Thursday, but may stall just to our north
unfortunately. Thus, it is too soon to know how much influence the
cold front will have on our temperatures. If it does make it
across Southeast TX, then we may see highs closer into the low to
mid 80s. Otherwise, our highs could remain near the upper 80s.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
VFR conditions will prevail into the evening, with southerly
winds becoming light and variable after sunset. Increasing
moisture and light winds overnight will once again be favorable
for the development of fog beginning after 06Z, which could become
dense at times and result in periods of IFR conditions through
around 14Z. Intermittent low cigs and fog will diminish after
sunrise, with VFR conditions expected tomorrow.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Light SE to E winds and low seas will continue through early next
week. The local pressure gradient will tighten Tuesday and
Wednesday, resulting in moderate to occasionally strong onshore
winds and elevated seas. Caution flags and/or Small Craft
Advisories may be needed. Elevated water levels along the bays
is possible.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 79 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cotto (24)
FXUS64 KHGX 252048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Thanks to an onshore flow regime, building midlevel heights, and
marginal cloud cover this afternoon, we continue to reach
afternoon temperatures well above seasonal normals. As of 3 PM CT,
many stations have reached the 90 degree mark, approximately 8-10
degrees above normal for late October. Light but persistent
onshore winds continue overnight as the prevailing surface high
remains situated to our east. Clearing skies, along with calm
winds and very low dewpoint differentials, will create a favorable
environment for the development of radiation fog across much of
the area. Fog may at times become dense, leading to hazardous
travel conditions during the early hours of Saturday morning.
Overnight lows should dip just below 70 inland, and remain in the
low 70s along the immediate coast.
On Saturday, a weak surface front will approach from the NW, but
largely wash out before making its way into SE TX. As such, any
isolated shower/storm activity should remain situated to our
north. Conditions will be similar to those of today with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 for most of the area. A slight decrease
in overnight lows is possible as the presence of a weak surface
low associated with the aforementioned front modifies the onshore
flow pattern to a very light and variable one. Conditions look
favorable for an additional round of fog development tomorrow.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
We`ll remain on the dry side for early next week as the eastern
periphery of the mid level high pressure lingers to our west.
Temperatures will also stay on the warm side with high
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. For Sunday and
Monday, the highs will be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees inland
and in the low to mid 80s along the coasts. Late Tuesday into
early Wednesday, a mid to upper level trough will move across the
Southern Plains displacing the mid level high out into SE CONUS. A
surge of low level moisture will filter into SE Texas from the
Gulf and increase our local PWs to around 1.6-1.8 inches on
Wednesday and may remain near these values through the end of the
work week. Thus, we may see rain chances back on our forecast
Wednesday and Thursday, in particular during the daytime hours,
where we could see some scattered showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms. With respect to temperatures, the highs will
decrease a few degrees Tuesday into Wednesday. Inland highs in
the upper 80s is expected for Tuesday, and in the low to upper 80s
on Wednesday. Models are hinting at a cold front moving into
Central TX sometime on Thursday, but may stall just to our north
unfortunately. Thus, it is too soon to know how much influence the
cold front will have on our temperatures. If it does make it
across Southeast TX, then we may see highs closer into the low to
mid 80s. Otherwise, our highs could remain near the upper 80s.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
VFR conditions will prevail into the evening, with southerly
winds becoming light and variable after sunset. Increasing
moisture and light winds overnight will once again be favorable
for the development of fog beginning after 06Z, which could become
dense at times and result in periods of IFR conditions through
around 14Z. Intermittent low cigs and fog will diminish after
sunrise, with VFR conditions expected tomorrow.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Light SE to E winds and low seas will continue through early next
week. The local pressure gradient will tighten Tuesday and
Wednesday, resulting in moderate to occasionally strong onshore
winds and elevated seas. Caution flags and/or Small Craft
Advisories may be needed. Elevated water levels along the bays
is possible.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 79 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cotto (24)