Wx Infinity Forums

Posted: **Tue Dec 19, 2023 6:14 pm**

Basically in the medium to long range,
once the pattern gets locked in, we will be staying colder and probably wetter than normal for the end of december and most of january

Posted: **Tue Dec 19, 2023 6:27 pm**

user:null wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 3:01 pm The real serious cold so far this winter has been over in Asia — record lows (or close to it) over in places like Beijing, Seoul, etc.

Yep, I was supposed to go tour one of our manufacturers in Seoul and they pushed it to March.

An EPO pop could definitely make late January and February very cold here

Posted: **Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:10 pm**

Has anyone noticed how the predictions about cold coming to Houston get quickly deflated, and reinstated for a later date? Remember the initial conversation was about mid to late December. Next was late December to early January. We are already taking about late January into February. There is a pattern/ trend. I expect to be bored all the way into Spring.

Posted: **Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:12 pm**

This pattern change is going to happen and we are talking about at the beginning of january not just the end of it or at least their is very high confidence that it will, not one single bit of guidance suggests it isnt, Euro weeklies, GEFS extended, CFS all agree, january will be below average and I can pretty much say that with near 100% confidence
December was always looking near normal- to above normal, NOAA’s monthly outlook looks pretty accurate to what we have seen this month, i never expected any sort of big cooldown in december with the MJO in the wrong phases and that roaring pacific jet, but the atmosphere is beginning to change, its easy to get frustrated over the lack over winter weather, but we got a long ways to go and its looking promising

Posted: **Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:40 pm**

biggerbyte wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:10 pm Has anyone noticed how the predictions about cold coming to Houston get quickly deflated, and reinstated for a later date? Remember the initial conversation was about mid to late December. Next was late December to early January. We are already taking about late January into February. There is a pattern/ trend. I expect to be bored all the way into Spring.

I have seen that many times.

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 12:14 am**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:12 pm This pattern change is going to happen and we are talking about at the beginning of january not just the end of it or at least their is very high confidence that it will, not one single bit of guidance suggests it isnt, Euro weeklies, GEFS extended, CFS all agree, january will be below average and I can pretty much say that with near 100% confidence
December was always looking near normal- to above normal, NOAA’s monthly outlook looks pretty accurate to what we have seen this month, i never expected any sort of big cooldown in december with the MJO in the wrong phases and that roaring pacific jet, but the atmosphere is beginning to change, its easy to get frustrated over the lack over winter weather, but we got a long ways to go and its looking promising

Correct. It’s already started.

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 10:52 am**

So much for all that "coldest winter ever" nonsense that everyone was talking about late summer and fall. More like warmest, most boring winter ever.

Beautiful fall weather all week and then a rainy, sloppy mess all holiday weekend naturally.

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 10:59 am**

Winter just started…. , again december was expected to be normal to above normal at least temp wise and thats exactly how its played out, this was not unexpected , We got along ways to go, patience, as ive stated the atmosphere is changing, you just have to be patient, the MJO is in phase 8, and headed towards phase 1, things are changing

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 11:10 am**

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Dec 20, 2023 10:52 am So much for all that "coldest winter ever" nonsense that everyone was talking about late summer and fall. More like warmest, most boring winter ever.

Beautiful fall weather all week and then a rainy, sloppy mess all holiday weekend naturally.

El Niños aren’t known for extreme cold.

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 11:13 am**

December can KMA...

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 11:53 am**

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Dec 20, 2023 10:52 am So much for all that "coldest winter ever" nonsense that everyone was talking about late summer and fall. More like warmest, most boring winter ever.

Beautiful fall weather all week and then a rainy, sloppy mess all holiday weekend naturally.

Was that ever predicted? I only ever saw wetter than normal which I think most were excited to catch up on rainfall. I can't recall any hype about an extremely cold winter. I think the wetter pattern brought some hope for winter weather if there ever was some true arctic air. I feel like weve actually been consistently average. Its been 60s/40s for me for the majority of December it seems and this is a nice change from previous years of 80s/60s then a cold front for 40s/30s and then back to 78/60 2 days later.

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 12:45 pm**

How's the rain looking for Christmas day?

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 1:50 pm**

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Dec 20, 2023 10:52 am So much for all that "coldest winter ever" nonsense that everyone was talking about late summer and fall. More like warmest, most boring winter ever.

Beautiful fall weather all week and then a rainy, sloppy mess all holiday weekend naturally.

What? No one was predicting that.

This winter is following classic Nino look. Warm start, cold end.

January looks well below normal. Some are spitting out 10-15 degrees below normal.

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:30 pm**

Before we get to January, we have a real chance of finishing off 2023 without recording a freeze.

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 9:11 pm**

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:30 pm Before we get to January, we have a real chance of finishing off 2023 without recording a freeze.

No one cares about the concrete jungle.

We’ve had 2 maybe 3 since Fall rolled around where climate recordings are pure. That’s about average.

Posted: **Wed Dec 20, 2023 10:51 pm**

I guess the freezing line that supposedly stopped at Montgomery County a week or so ago frosted enough of my lawn to shut part of it down. It looks like a giant maze right now.

Posted: **Thu Dec 21, 2023 7:12 am**

Picked up a surprising half an inch yesterday and starting to feel a bit more confident that I might actually get another inch or two over the weekend. The 0z Euro and EPS look pretty good!

Posted: **Thu Dec 21, 2023 9:16 am**

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Dec 20, 2023 10:51 pm I guess the freezing line that supposedly stopped at Montgomery County a week or so ago frosted enough of my lawn to shut part of it down. It looks like a giant maze right now.

It’s nothing unusual to see frost at ground level or exposed surfaces even when the 2m “official” temperature is above freezing. Happens all the time. It’s one reason why the NWS has freeze vs. frost warnings. Only problem is our local NWS doesn’t seem to make use of them. Unfortunately, gardeners here in SE Texas can’t rely on the NWS to sufficiently warn us.

Y’all should have been under a frost warning that morning since it was the first “killing frost” of the season. Same with us. But hey this is Texas - fend for yourself, right?!?!?

Posted: **Thu Dec 21, 2023 2:55 pm**

The EURO is looking pretty wet over the weekend.

Posted: **Thu Dec 21, 2023 3:12 pm**

don wrote: ↑Thu Dec 21, 2023 2:55 pm The EURO is looking pretty wet over the weekend.

Damn, yes please!! That looks amazing!

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