Re: September 2023
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2023 6:25 pm
What a crock of you know what. Pathetic!
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weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 6:36 pm Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?
As expected, this is exactly what happened here. My pool and yard are full of junk.
Here's why:weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 6:36 pm Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?
user:null wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:01 pmHere's why:weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 6:36 pm Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?
The image in the tweet is the "Futurecast" used by ABC13 when they created their predictions yesterday. Now Space City Weather and NWS FWD were more elaborate/accurate, but still...weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:05 pmTo be honest, the graphic still does not show rain everywhere… in fact it implies isolated coverage. There was a legitimate risk of severe weather - just on an isolated basis. Damage was reported with today’s storms.
There could have, maybe, been more emphasis on the expected isolated nature. Then again, that’s a single tweet not an entire forecast on-air, extended digital forecasts, etc.
But again, where did they say this was going to be an event where everyone would be hit by storms?user:null wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:31 pmThe image in the tweet is the "Futurecast" used by ABC13 when they created their predictions yesterday. Now Space City Weather and NWS FWD were more elaborate/accurate, but still...weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:05 pmTo be honest, the graphic still does not show rain everywhere… in fact it implies isolated coverage. There was a legitimate risk of severe weather - just on an isolated basis. Damage was reported with today’s storms.
There could have, maybe, been more emphasis on the expected isolated nature. Then again, that’s a single tweet not an entire forecast on-air, extended digital forecasts, etc.
On the flip side, I'm glad that areas are seeing some decent activity, even if it missed several others. The activity so far is actually a lot more than what mesocales were trying to trend to early this morning (nothing at all west of the Louisiana state line). And the pattern only looks to get wetter from here.
My answer to this is:weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 6:36 pm Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?
I get what you’re saying, and society does tend to behave predictable during times of anomalous weather. But, other areas are experiencing just as severe or more severe of a drought than Houston proper - including our neighbors to the east. My critique was more of some of the other comments on this board. It’s not the same place it used to be, I guess.davidiowx wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:11 pmMy answer to this is:weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 6:36 pm Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?
Yes, you’re absolutely right in saying the forecast was isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models have been the same. There hasn’t been any forecast for widespread rains for several months.
Everyone I know that lives here is praying for rain. Heck some are going so far and I respond with “be careful what you ask for”. So when there’s a chance, and then the radar starts lighting up, it brings hope to everyone. The crazy thing is (ignore the drought maps), extreme SETX/SWLA has got some rain while everyone from Houston proper and S, N and W haven’t seen anything to help the drought.
Add in that it’s been hot as hell -for what seems like forever- and that just adds to the misery.
TL;DR - rain is hard to come by and has been the case the past couple summers. When meso’s show scattered coverage, folks get excited. So when the radar shows promise, the same general areas get showers while everyone else experiences the outflow and it’s just a tease.
It's pretty obvious why:weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:16 pmMy critique was more of some of the other comments on this board. It’s not the same place it used to be, I guess.
Just got the App. It's superior to MyRadar. TWC is always 10 minutes behind, meaning the tornado is upon us before we can react.
Our history in southeast Texas is full of extremes - well before our time. There just seems to be less willingness to actually digest a weather forecast - just run with a personal interpretation and curse the forecaster when it’s wrong (… or not wrong).user:null wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:54 pmIt's pretty obvious why:weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:16 pmMy critique was more of some of the other comments on this board. It’s not the same place it used to be, I guess.
Look back at the old-times when this board was founded (sometime in the 2000s decade): the climate patterns in SE TX were much milder/more agreeable in that period, hence more enjoyable for many. The 2000s decade actually had more consistent/heavier summer rainfall that limited 100°F frequencies ... and winters were much milder (which I will add to below).
Contrast that with these BS "wall-to-wall 100°F without a drop of rain for months" summers. All in brutal combination with "freezes down to teens": esepecially considering that plenty of areas south of I-10 had never seen a hard freeze from 1991 until Feb 2010, and hadn't seen teens for decades until 2021.
Meaningless tripe because even factoring in all those extremes, Houston just recorded its confirmed hottest summer on record (as per Matt Lanza on Space City Weather). That's on top of record highs obliterated along the Gulf Coast all the way into Mississippi: insane 109-110°F in the SWAMPS of Louisiana at Lafayette, New Iberia, etc.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 9:01 pmOur history in southeast Texas is full of extremes - well before our time.