April 2023
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4345
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 ive been watching that timeframe too, models definitely have something
I can say I’m very happy right now 
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4345
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Glad to see many folks are cashing in on the rain! With El Nino returning lets hope we can keep the drought conditions across our region to a minimal!
Literally every cell has dodged me.
2.6 inches. Our grass is an emerald green. Enjoying it while it lasts. A/C is off.
Watch those cells around Sugarland in the warm sector. They could get severe. The lightning show to our SE is indeed amazing.
Watch those cells around Sugarland in the warm sector. They could get severe. The lightning show to our SE is indeed amazing.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
A wet day has prevailed, especially across our far north-
northwestern counties, roughly along and west of a line from
Columbus to Montgomery to San Jacinto. These areas have received
between 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated pockets of 4 inches
over the past 24 hrs. This activity over SETX has been developing
mainly along a quasi-stationary 850mb front, which is maximized
with the 925:850mb frontogenetic boundary extending from central
TX to the ArkLaTex region. With MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and mid
level instability around 6.5 to 7 degC/km, elevated thunderstorms
have been reported in some of the strongest storms.
The environment will continue to be favorable for increasing rain
and storm chances with the potential for training storms tonight
through late Friday. An inverted trough/coastal sfc low will
continue to move north-northeast across the region tonight. This
sfc trough will enhance deep moisture convergence at low levels.
Aloft, diffluent flow due to the SW Pacific flow and jet dynamics
remain strong, leading to increasing confidence in widespread
moderate to heavy rain across the region. This risk of isolated
flash flooding is still possible. Therefore, WPC kept our region
under a Slight risk of Excessive Rainfall in their Day 1 Outlook.
Severe weather looks low, however with deep layer shear around 25
to 35 knots and decent instability, cannot rule out isolated
large hail and gusty winds with some of the strongest
thunderstorms through Friday morning. The best potential for
severe weather will roughtly be along and south of the I-10
corridor.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will still be ongoing by Friday
morning as the parade of shortwaves aloft continues. Sfc high
pressure will finally build in over the Southern Plains during the
day, pushing the sfc trough and mid-level impulses of energies
offshore/further east. For this round of showers and storms, the
location of the highest rainfall amounts is progged to be along the
coastal counties. Additional rainfall totals from 1 to 3 inches can
be expected with isolated higher amounts up to 5 inches possible
through Saturday morning.
Rain and storms should gradually diminish from northwest to south-
southeast by Friday evening and night. A few showers will still be
possible along the coast through Saturday morning.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
With the strong mid/upper trough exiting further to the E/NE by Sat,
rain chances should be on the decrease across SE TX. Light NE winds
at the low levels along with lingering mid and high clouds (via the
zonal flow aloft) will help to keep highs for Sat just slightly cool-
er than normal: upper 60s to around 70. As clouds continue to clear,
highs on Sun could be a bit warmer (in the lower to mid 70s) but we
will continue to be under the influence of the cooler/drier airmass.
Lows this weekend will range from the mid to upper 50s over the nor-
thern counties...upper 50s to around 60 for the central to southern
counties...and the mid 60s at the immediate coast.
Models are hinting at the possibility of some low POPs (and increas-
ing clouds) by Mon as the building mid/upper ridge over the western
CONUS drags a strong shortwave down the Southern Plains (via the NW
flow aloft). But not too sure there will be enough moisture for much
of anything at this time. Otherwise, the weather for this next week
looks to remain dry/mild/quiet with the mid/upper ridge to the west
and generally light E/NE winds persisting at the lower levels. High
temperatures to warm from the upper 70s during the first half of the
week to the lower 80s for the second half. Lows should be mainly in
the 50s...warming to the 60s by the end of the week. 41
&&
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
A wet day has prevailed, especially across our far north-
northwestern counties, roughly along and west of a line from
Columbus to Montgomery to San Jacinto. These areas have received
between 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated pockets of 4 inches
over the past 24 hrs. This activity over SETX has been developing
mainly along a quasi-stationary 850mb front, which is maximized
with the 925:850mb frontogenetic boundary extending from central
TX to the ArkLaTex region. With MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and mid
level instability around 6.5 to 7 degC/km, elevated thunderstorms
have been reported in some of the strongest storms.
The environment will continue to be favorable for increasing rain
and storm chances with the potential for training storms tonight
through late Friday. An inverted trough/coastal sfc low will
continue to move north-northeast across the region tonight. This
sfc trough will enhance deep moisture convergence at low levels.
Aloft, diffluent flow due to the SW Pacific flow and jet dynamics
remain strong, leading to increasing confidence in widespread
moderate to heavy rain across the region. This risk of isolated
flash flooding is still possible. Therefore, WPC kept our region
under a Slight risk of Excessive Rainfall in their Day 1 Outlook.
Severe weather looks low, however with deep layer shear around 25
to 35 knots and decent instability, cannot rule out isolated
large hail and gusty winds with some of the strongest
thunderstorms through Friday morning. The best potential for
severe weather will roughtly be along and south of the I-10
corridor.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will still be ongoing by Friday
morning as the parade of shortwaves aloft continues. Sfc high
pressure will finally build in over the Southern Plains during the
day, pushing the sfc trough and mid-level impulses of energies
offshore/further east. For this round of showers and storms, the
location of the highest rainfall amounts is progged to be along the
coastal counties. Additional rainfall totals from 1 to 3 inches can
be expected with isolated higher amounts up to 5 inches possible
through Saturday morning.
Rain and storms should gradually diminish from northwest to south-
southeast by Friday evening and night. A few showers will still be
possible along the coast through Saturday morning.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
With the strong mid/upper trough exiting further to the E/NE by Sat,
rain chances should be on the decrease across SE TX. Light NE winds
at the low levels along with lingering mid and high clouds (via the
zonal flow aloft) will help to keep highs for Sat just slightly cool-
er than normal: upper 60s to around 70. As clouds continue to clear,
highs on Sun could be a bit warmer (in the lower to mid 70s) but we
will continue to be under the influence of the cooler/drier airmass.
Lows this weekend will range from the mid to upper 50s over the nor-
thern counties...upper 50s to around 60 for the central to southern
counties...and the mid 60s at the immediate coast.
Models are hinting at the possibility of some low POPs (and increas-
ing clouds) by Mon as the building mid/upper ridge over the western
CONUS drags a strong shortwave down the Southern Plains (via the NW
flow aloft). But not too sure there will be enough moisture for much
of anything at this time. Otherwise, the weather for this next week
looks to remain dry/mild/quiet with the mid/upper ridge to the west
and generally light E/NE winds persisting at the lower levels. High
temperatures to warm from the upper 70s during the first half of the
week to the lower 80s for the second half. Lows should be mainly in
the 50s...warming to the 60s by the end of the week. 41
&&
Theirs a ton of lighting and very loud thunder with these storms.Made me jump a few times LOL.Rainfall rate has to be around 2 inches an hour right now.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4345
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Not that it will effect our weather, but models are trying to spin up some sort of subtropical system in the GOM, kind of just bizarre to look at, never had a subtropical system develop in the gulf in april
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I’ve been noticing this as well. Fascinating stuff.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 06, 2023 11:35 pm Not that it will effect our weather, but models are trying to spin up some sort of subtropical system in the GOM, kind of just bizarre to look at, never had a subtropical system develop in the gulf in april
I'm now at over 2 inches of rain now.Been raining moderate to heavy for about 45 mins now.
Caught one tiny cell around 10 pm. That giant wave coming from Victoria split and went around, and now everything is offshore. Next.
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brazoriatx
- Posts: 332
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
So is this it? All the rain "hugging" the coast is now moving out into the gulf. I think we're done.. I got a whopping nothing lol
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
SOI index is spiking, but it could be contaminated by Tropical Low 23U.
There's more disturbances moving from west to east today,so hopefully you can get some rain out of them this afternoon/evening.brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Apr 07, 2023 6:26 am So is this it? All the rain "hugging" the coast is now moving out into the gulf. I think we're done.. I got a whopping nothing lol
It better not be spiking!Iceresistance wrote: ↑Fri Apr 07, 2023 8:50 am SOI index is spiking, but it could be contaminated by Tropical Low 23U.
Folks down in Brazoria County shouldn’t give up so early 
0.3 inches total for all of this. Not impressed.
3.53 inches. That's enough, thank you. Send the rain south!
12Z GFS came in more aggressive with next weeks system.Looks like a MCS may form.System may try to become subtropical once it enters the Gulf and moves east.