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So, it's largely a bust.

That 2nd s/w is the only real hope for tonight.

A definite maybe on Friday.

It's the same 'ol song...



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1258 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022

A quick synopsis of the setup for thunderstorms and potential
severe weather tonight for those who aren`t hanging on every word
in my discussion (feigns GREAT offense that anyone would do
this):
- Expect today to be fairly warm and humid, though temperatures
will likely be kept in check by cloudiness and a smattering of
showers through the day.
- There is an outside chance of stronger storms on the northern
edge of the forecast area, but those are more likely to stay
north of the area until tonight.
- A better chance of thunderstorms will come just ahead of and
along a front set to march northwest to southeast across the
area tonight, particularly after 9 pm in the north, exiting by 7
am tomorrow morning.
- The strongest storms could produce pockets of damaging straight-
line wind gusts. A brief tornado or two is also possible, but
secondary to the wind threat.
- Wind damage is not expected to be widespread along the whole
front, but these pockets of stronger winds could be possible at
any point along the line, and should be a consideration for all.

&&

NWS was calling for 1-2” now it’s down to 1/4” - 1/2”
But of course…

I mean is anyone surprised, thats what models do, models show some decent rain totals, and as it gets closer to the event they back off, this is going to be a bust lol, we arent getting a widespread rain event until the spring lol

The midlevels are blowing in Mexican desert air like a firehose. The opposite of what the SJT is supposed to do.

Lucinda (Lucy) >> Rosalyn

The wind dried up our rainfall in about 10 minutes.

...I'll be seeing you all for severe season in March...

The squall line should go through CLL around midnight. I'm expecting a broken line. We'll see if it is actually solid line of showers and T-showers.

tornado watch issued for my area apparently

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:53 pm tornado watch issued for my area apparently

Yeah in a heartbeat we went from a forecast of much-needed heavy rainfall to lets-hope-for 10 drops and pray that your house doesn't get destroyed.

I used to love watching weather developments. Now it's something I dread thinking about any more.

Oh my wow, the rain chance dropped from 100% to 47%. So now this is mostly a wind event????

I'd copy the long range for Friday, but it looks like the forecast for tonight a couple of days ago. I'll expect another Lucy performance.

The front is spinning off the low in north Texas, so the line of showers could jump right over CLL and enter Houston as a broken, windy line of showers in the wee hours.

I’d love some rain.. having said that, bring on the N winds for a few days. I’m fine if this train of troughs shows up every 8-9 days.

Rain would be nice though!

There is a LOT of lightning associated with the line of showers. Either we'll get rain or major brush fires.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 10:25 pm I'd copy the long range for Friday, but it looks like the forecast for tonight a couple of days ago. I'll expect another Lucy performance.

Bingo. This pattern sucks.

DoctorMu im getting som nice heavy rain here in CS with lots of thunder and lightning

OK. 5 min of rain, now 40-50 mph winds

Lol those poor souls camping out at the ticket both by kyle field for ticket pulling, tents went flying everywhere( on a video ive seen), even mother nature is trying to stop students from going to the game on saturday

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 11:19 pm Lol those poor souls camping out at the ticket both by kyle field for ticket pulling, tents went flying everywhere( on a video ive seen), even mother nature is trying to stop students from going to the game on saturday

It's basketball season now. Everyone head inside!

Looks like a pitiful line of rain on the way now.

I’ll take it!

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:54 am Looks like a pitiful line of rain on the way now.

I’m experiencing it as I’m typing this. It’s pretty weak sauce. Had some gusts up to about 40mph a few minutes before the rain hit. The rain isn’t even heavy. Just mainly light to moderate showers.

Next!